EDIT: took out old NHC forecast

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 04:47 AM by Central Floridave

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Dora Hates You

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Dorian passed over Barbados a few hours ago and it is now very near
the Windward Islands. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
earlier this morning suggest that the storm has held steady in
intensity with a blend of the flight level and SFMR winds
supporting a wind speed of 45 kt. The Caribbean composite
radar data show that Dorian remains a very compact system and that
it still lacks a well-defined inner core.

Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere around Dorian has been
causing the storm to remain in a fairly steady state during the
past day or so despite relatively low wind shear conditions and warm
SSTs. The models show this dry air persisting in the vicinity of
the system while it tracks across the Caribbean during the next day
or two, so it seems likely that Dorian will continue to only
gradually intensify during that time. When Dorian nears Hispaniola
in 36 to 48 hours, there will likely be some increase in wind shear
and those less favorable winds aloft and the interaction with the
landmasses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should cause considerable
weakening. Once the system moves north of the Greater Antilles, the
environmental conditions become more favorable for intensification,
and most of the intensity guidance responds by showing an increase
in winds. However, there remains considerable uncertainty for this
part of the forecast because the future intensity of Dorian will be
quite dependent on how much land interaction there is with the
mountainous island of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the upper end of the guidance in the short term, while the
system is over the Caribbean Sea, but near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion should
continue for another 12 to 24 hours taking Dorian across the eastern
Caribbean Sea. After that time, a slight turn to the northwest is
likely when the cyclone nears the eastern portion of a cut off mid-
to upper-level low and moves toward a weakness in the ridge. This
should take Dorian across the Dominican Republic and the Mona
Passage and over the Bahamas in the 3 to 4 day time period. A ridge
is likely to rebuild to the north of Dorian when it is forecast to
be over the Bahamas and that could cause it to turn slightly to the
left by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast
is largely unchanged while Dorian is in the Caribbean, but it has
been shifted slightly to the north thereafter. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.


Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours, where
tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to
6 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent with isolated
totals as high as 10 inches possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions
are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch have been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto
Rico and St. Croix.

3. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
portions of the Dominican Republic.

4. While uncertainty remains high, wind and rain impacts are
possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this
weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 17.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 18.5N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 21.7N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 24.7N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

CFL Hurricane Dorian Lounge

And, better put your Depends on before you read this, , , , ,

Morning model roundup either 6z or 0z depending on the model:

6Z GFS:: Cuts over Hispaniola Thursday, clear of the Caribbean Thursday evening. Starts getting reorganized over the Central Bahamas on Saturday morning. Melbourne Landfall Sunday morning, Strong Tropical Storm. Does not reenter Gulf.

0Z Euro Clips eastern edge of Hispaniola midday Thursday, clear by the evening. Melbourne Landfall Sunday afternoon, Strong Tropical Storm. Does not reenter Gulf.

6z Legacy GFS - Landfall Puerto Rico late Wednesday afternoon, Clears the Caribbean overnight into Thursday. Strengthens to Hurricane just NE of the Turks and Caicos Thursday night. Cat 2 hurricane over Great Abaco island in the Bahamas Saturday afternoon. Landfall Melbourne, FL midday Sunday as a strong Cat 2 hurricane. Does not reenter Gulf.

0z CMC - slips through Mona passage Thursday morning, Cat 1 hurricane near Great Abaco midday Saturday. Landfall near Ft. Pierce Sunday morning as a cat 1/2 hurricane. Enters Gulf just north of Tampa late Sunday night, weak cat 1/strong TS another landfall near Carabelle, FL late Monday night.

0z NAVGEM - Clips Western side of Puerto Rico as a TS, landfall Cat 2 hurricane near Ft. Lauderdale late Sunday night. Exits into the Gulf near Sarasota by Monday night. Run ends there in the Gulf as a Cat 1.

0z Icon takes it over the eastern side of PR as a tropical Storm. Then dives it back into Cuba, end of run is a cat 1 between the Yucatan and Cuba. The 6z run of the same model keeps it in the Central Bahamas, but the run ends there.

0z HWRF takes it right over Hispaniola, it eventually recovers near the NW Bahamas, landfall strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane Melbourne, FL late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Run ends over Orlando.

0z HMON Takes it way west toward the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, then winds up with a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane southwest of Andros island.

0z UKMET Takes Dorian as a Tropical Storm over the eastern side of Puerto Rico Wednesday evening. Forms into a Cat 2 hurricane near Cat Island in the Bahamas, Landfall Cat 2 hurricane near Ft. Lauderdale late Sunday night. Run ends just east of Ft. Myers inland.

experimental HALFs morning run, strengthens the system east of the Bahamas, approaches E. Central Florida Monday where it explodes into a cat 4 almost 5 hurricane where the run ends east of Melbourne.

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Dora Hates You

Check storm surf virtual buoy for Sept 1. Spikes to 13 feet for one day then gone. That is a direct strike.

http://stormsurf.com/cgi-bin/4cast.cgi?ID=wna.41009

That is based on the most recent GFS run.

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...

Last EURO run was in agreement with that as well..... most others are close, but with a more intense storm.

The track that skirts it through the islands and north over open water and then loop around the Bahama Bank definitely has the greatest chance to gain lots of strength due to deep, warm water. And I just had my shingles replaced, so my guess is they are not really stuck together and may just come off in chunks if it really does strengthen like they mention. sigh.

Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

Satellite images and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate
that Dorian is becoming better organized with banding features now
more established on the north side of the circulation. The
flight-level and SFMR winds from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were a little higher in the most recent passes through the storm,
and a blend of that data supports an initial intensity of about 50
kt. The Hurricane Hunters also reported that Dorian has developed a
partial eyewall and that the minimum pressure has dropped to 1003
mb. A combination of the reconnaissance data and recent ASCAT
passes were used to modify the initial wind radii, and it confirms
that Dorian remains a compact and asymmetric tropical storm.

Dorian is moving northwestward at 11 kt toward a weakness in the
ridge caused by a cut off mid- to upper-level low to the north of
Hispaniola. This motion should continue for the next few days,
taking Dorian across the Virgin Islands or the eastern portion of
Puerto Rico later today and to the east of the Bahamas on Thursday
and Friday. By late in the week, the steering pattern is expected
to change as the models show a ridge building over the western
Atlantic. The flow between the ridge and the aforementioned mid- to
upper-level low should cause Dorian to turn west-northwestward and
approach the southeast U.S. coast this weekend. The new NHC
track forecast is adjusted a little to the right at most forecast
times trending toward the latest consensus aids. However, there has
been considerable run-to-run variability among the models so
confidence in the long term track remains low. In addition, users
are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast points as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Some additional slow strengthening seems likely today before Dorian
reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The land interaction
could end the strengthening trend or even cause some temporary
weakening, however, environmental conditions favor intensification
after the storm pulls northward into the southwestern Atlantic.
Nearly all of the intensity models show Dorian becoming a hurricane
in about 2 days, with additional strengthening beyond that time.
The NHC intensity forecast is increased from the previous one,
especially at the longer forecast times, to be in better agreement
with the latest models. This forecast, however, is still on the
lower end of the guidance envelope, so additional upward adjustments
could be needed if the guidance trends persists. It is also worth
noting that the global models show Dorian increasing in size by the
time it nears the southeast U.S.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and are possible in
portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands could produce flash flooding during the next
couple of days. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.

3. The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with
storm surge, in the northwestern Bahamas and along portions of the
Florida east coast have increased. Residents in these areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast late this week remains
higher than usual due to a large spread in the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 16.8N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 17.9N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 19.5N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 21.4N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 23.3N 69.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 31/0600Z 26.1N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 27.7N 77.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 29.0N 80.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

Tuesday afternoon model runs were trending to recurve near the Florida coast. NHC update has Dorian at 120hours off the coast of Daytona.

Gotta like what those long range models are showing this Wednesday AM. Showing to recurve and hit North Carolina.

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Dora Hates You

Woot! Hope that recurve happens. Check the virtual buoy models, especially magic seaweeed. potential to be really good surf coming! Dorian, go visit Bermuda and leave us alone!

FUUUUUUUCK.....

HWRF, not the best for track forcast but good with intensity

But now, after all of this back-and-forth, watch this thing get East of the Bahamas, then have the high pressure ridge really build in, and then have Dorian take a hard left into Miami as a CAT 4 with only 24 hours warning. Who does Dade County sue?

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Dora Hates You

This isnt good:

growing:

Jesus.. 11am update has it pointed right at us as a MAJOR HURRICANE

If you live by the water, and cant manage some serious flood control..... GORILLA TAPE is your friend. I'm going to get some now. ZIP tape is good too (prob better)... but it will make a mess of things when its time to remove

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 08:20 AM by Plan B

Wed 11pm update


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

28.6N 80.3W is right off of Cape Canaveral early Monday.

Someone tell the models to recurve this thing again!

Come ON 12Zulu updates....RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE....

f()ck NHC but more importantly, f()ck current a$$hole in charge for cutting funding. these people really have no clue regarding forecasting. they measure data real time and give it to you, that's about it. i dont need to tell most of you but going from tropical storm to major hurricane in under twelve hours is hard to accept...prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

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sneedeker

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 09:01 AM by harrietdubman

Maybe Home Depot gave NHC some money to up the forecast!

Sales were slow with just a cat 1 forecast. Cat 3 gets people attentions better. Could be true. NHC just sent out a tweet to prepare now.

Tropical-storm-force winds from #Dorian could begin in parts of Florida *as early as* Saturday or Saturday night. Now is the time to begin thinking about what kinds of preparations you might need to make over the next couple of days. https://t.co/f5cqCroirU pic.twitter.com/mIGTVR6SUG

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 28, 2019

http://twitter.com/NHC_Atlanti...us/1166744443417849857

Latest update has it hitting FL as a Major Hurricane

Waves should be good though

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Brevard Surf Report

Lol I was thinking the same!

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Time and tide wait for no one.....

Cat 2 (or 3) beeline right for us, Friday and Saturday gonna be yuuuuge

Surf some before you take care of your home and family

I'm still certain this thing will make some last minute turn

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 10:24 AM by seaspray

The surf and wind will be crap- always is.

Latest GFS and Euro runs have SFL and then Panhandle getting hammered by a major.
Seems the more likely track, based on climatology.
Crap

A 1:59 note from a weather analyst: (I've added some Emphasis)

"I just spent a half hour looking at the western ATL sat loops which presented the picture of the complex situation ahead of Doreen. . ..There is a weak ULL feature to its NW and it is being influenced by the flow around that feature. Ahead of that feature is a NW-SE flow which then becomes westerly over the FL Straits. The ULL is not strong and its influence on Doreen seems to be lessening. If so the NW track currently being seen should become more WNW..fairly soon.
In the CONUS: NW of Florida a trough is pushing SE-E toward exiting CONUS probably in a day or two. By then Doreen should be in the lower Bahamas where a more traditional SE-NW flow should be evident.. A generally easterly flow seems to be following across the ATL behind all this. And if it becomes more of an influence it could be the cause for Doreen to take a more westerly path.
I think this complex situation will begin to be come more clear by tomorrow."

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 12:14 PM by dingpatch

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Dora Hates You

Since the name of the storm is DORIAN and not DOREEN, I woulnt hold that analyst's input in the highest regard: p

PLAN B speaking of tape, try that NO RESIDUE duct tape by 3M (I think)

its like a dark silver color- a little bit more expensive but strong as hell AND a breeze to remive with no mess

they have it at lowes and i think even publix

Ummmm, , , , , ahhhhh, , , , , am I missing something? Tape? What is tape going to do for you in at CAT 4?

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Dora Hates You

Hopefully keep out the 15" of water I got in my house from Matthew I'm ok with total destruction of my house...... I DONT want to go through gutting all the insides and rebuilding it myself again!!!....... just spent $100 on "flood mediation" supplies at HD.

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 01:35 PM by Plan B

I get it!! Good luck, if comes to the point that you, me, we need it!!!

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Dora Hates You

Can someone merge these threads? in the meantime.... REALLY BAD:

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to
have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted
penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with
the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data
from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central
pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said,
the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the
initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory.

Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.
Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48
hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and
then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to
the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward
across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the
official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but
it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major
hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to
maintain that status until it reaches land.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

Dorian has slowed down some. The NHC 5 AM now has it coming ashore on Monday around noonish, And, perhaps, a little bit more south; looks to be more Vero - Ft Piece.

So now, with the apparent slow down, we get to watch and wait an extra day.

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Dora Hates You

Moving slower to add to the damage and stress Good Luck everyone!

Yes, "stress"! I posted elsewhere that sticking a Ghost Pepper up your but would be more comfortable!

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Dora Hates You

Walk for your lives!

That Euro forecast model on Windy is showing this thing coming into PBC and buzzing right up through the entire state of FL

Yep, crap, it seems that a lot of the models, regardless of where their "landfall" is, has it going right up the middle of the state. Perhaps, closer to us than Francis and Jeane were.

It's Deja Vu all over again, , , ,

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Dora Hates You

Well, one thing seems a lot less likely this morning. It will not curve hard north and make a giant perfect swell for the three day weekend.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Debbie Downer........

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Specializing in sarcasm and condescending rhetoric since 1971.

Then again... now it looks like the surf could get really big.

Not sure what the wind conditions at the beach will be- does a hurricane suck the winds towards it, making it offshore at the beach?

When close enough and the eye is east of you, as this will be, once the eye passes north of you we get NW, then W, then SW winds.

Try this, hit the play button in the lower left of your screen. You will see how it works.

windy.com

Edited: 08/31/2019 at 06:21 AM by rc

Check stormsurf virtual buoy for canaveral buoy. Currently 34 feet predicted. AND, it looks like it is flicking us off.

If Cocoa Beach is in NW quadrant...storm surge gonna be bad.

http://stormsurf.com/cgi-bin/4cast.cgi?ID=wna.41009

Edited: 08/29/2019 at 06:48 AM by Central Floridave

Actual buoy topped out at 33.5. Good call, Dave!

Yeah that euro model (ECMWF)

has a crazy track for dorian.. smacking into PBC, and then grinding up the whole state with full on cat 3 strength the whole way

and then continuing up the east coast thru GA and SC NC grinding away at hurricane strength.. not sure how it could really do that but jesus lets hope not

BUT

on the hopeful side,

just yesterday the models were showing it blowing out into the gulf and hitting mississippi.

Now its got the path going straight up Florida.. so what's that showing? They are curving it more North and East.

Perhaps, if we are lucky, by the time we get into Fri/Sat that curve will have moved even more NE and be on or off the coast of florida, possibly pulling a "Matthew" and just rolling up the coast a bit offshore



Matthew:







Edited: 08/29/2019 at 07:07 AM by paddleout

Oh shit..... latest 11 am run has Dorian as a CAT 4 at landfall:

http://www.wunderground.com/hu...rm-dorian?map=forecast

fug....RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE....come on, Join In The Chant...RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE....

I have been doing the dance and the chants.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

They failed miserably at predicting the little low that formed in the Keys last week. Why do I feel like those building these predictions are flying blind?

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I was right.

Aluminum shutters going up tomorrow. Got hotel reservations in Tampa and Jax. Evacuating Saturday with wife and 2 very small kids. Keep the reports and updates coming!!!!!!!

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

"IF" it starts trending more south I may stay put. Currently, Vero is the Bull's Eye. But, given "current track and strength projections, , , , , I'm going to pack my Ready Bag, load up the spaniel, and head SW Sunday afternoon. Given that most all the models agree that it will get to the coast and then hang a right turn up 95 or the middle of the state! But, then, I did see a blurb about it "stalling" off the coast???!!! Not too sure of the validity of that claim.

And, they still are just "guessing" about its track; some of their most favorite models go as far south as Miami, and then some other favorites go as far north as Jacksonville!!!! Who wants to make a bet that it hits Florida?



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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/29/2019 at 11:20 AM by dingpatch

What the heck is that one model that has it going to bermuda? I'll have what that model is drinking...

FYI- In my experience over the years with all these hurricanes- the best place to go, besides frikkin Georgia, is Orlando. Just get in the middle of the state and stay away from any coasts.

You really never know what these things are going to decide to do at the last minute.

Yup. Make the call early and reservations in Kissimmee are easy to get. Just don't wait until the afternoon before landfall, or you may ride out the storm in a parking lot called 192 westbound with half a million of your closest neighbors.

Rosen hotels have discounted rates (and are waiving pet fees) for Floridians fleeing the storm.

-------------------------
Specializing in sarcasm and condescending rhetoric since 1971.

Edited: 08/29/2019 at 12:21 PM by worksuxgetsponsered

Does anyone know what the sustained windspeeds or gusts will be before MCO will suspend commercial flight ops?

Up to air traffic control. You can bet that a 35 kt crosswind will delay a lot of flights....

usually tropical storm force... anyway, if you live in a low area (like myself) this is a concern:



Edited: 08/29/2019 at 08:32 PM by 2nd Light Forums Moderator

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Dora Hates You

Would someone get some before and after photos of the dunes along the 'mid reach' - Satellite, IHB, and Indialantic? It will be interesting to see how the storm affects the dunes, especially where there are seawalls vs. a natural dune line.

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http://www.crsurf.com ~ CR Surf Travel Company

http://www.vacationsbygreg.com
Instagram - @crsurf

11 PM NHC update... UGH
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful
information about what has changed during the past several hours.
They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent
SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds).
These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show
Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this
afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.

The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian
is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday,
and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern
Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in
a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the
guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to
challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days,
along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you
can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder
the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path
of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle
toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be
seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is
shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the
previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus
on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4
and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.

There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the
south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission,
which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day.
As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop
somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level
low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be
pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air
entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification
while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the
intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with
the corrected-consensus guidance.

Unfortunately, I don't see any
large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.

Edited: 08/29/2019 at 08:32 PM by paddleout

^^ no problem Greg, always take before and after pics....I have some go pro footage of the actual reef(s) from a few weeks ago as well...maybe a while until it gets clear/clam enough to free dive again and see the "blocks"...The reefs actually looked real good, lots of growth...I "think" we will only see sustained winds around 90 mph ...hope so ...

So, , , , it can be said that "it is what it is", , , , but there is still too much uncertainty in its track. Most of the models are in pretty close agreement into Freeport but, from there it gets sketchy. The UKMet takes it acroos and into the gulf. BUT, BUT, BUT, , , , most of all the rest still takes it up the middle of the state as a CAT 1 or 2. That part might not seem that bad but, this thing is expected to be just crawling. How good is your property prepared for 24 hours of Cat 1 or 2? 24 hours for it to get from Palm Beack to Orlando????!!!!

And still, just as the models have brought it more southerly, there is a very good possibility that they could soon also take it more easterly! This is no joke. We could have a CAT 4 or 5 hit the sand at Miami and then turn north straight up the coast!!! EVERYBODY from Miami to Jacksonville might get a taste of a CAT 4 or 5!!!! IF it does come up the coastline the beachside areas, and most others out past 95 around here will never be the same.

Tommorow is shutter day. My Ready Bag is almost complete. Most "current" scenarios tell me that I will probably head towards Ft. Myers or Tallahassee. No ideal solution yet.

I'm guessing that even by Saturday afternoon they still won't have a good grip on the track.

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Dora Hates You

Dude
A ready bag is supposed to be ready in a moments notice. It's been 4 days and yours still isn't ready? Just call it a suitcase and be honest.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

The absolutely best case right now for South Brevard beachside is for a TON of rain over an extended period of time with Cat 1 or 2 winds. Think Faye flooding and then some plus pretty high winds. That is the best case. The worst case is unimaginable. Prep for the worst, pray for the best.

Well, no. It will be prepared to be "ready" when needed. It is prepared for the expected specific mission.

Still deciding if I want to put a tent in the car, , , ,. May need to get a trenching tool! Everything will be in place tomorrow at noon.

My first "raedy bag" was an Airmobile ruck and a duffle. My Cavalry Brigade was Nixon's "Ready Reaction Force".

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/30/2019 at 07:21 AM by dingpatch

Yep, F us!!!!! It really does look more-and-more that it is going to come up the cost. The current NHC track has it more easterly in the state but, there is a very good likelihood that it will soon be even more "east".

If it does come up the coast as a Cat 3 - 4 as slow as projected yes, it will be unimaginably devastating!!!

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Dora Hates You

11 am updates look better. now a cat 3 at landfall thank god.

landfall further south around PBCand then doing a sharp north hook.. but it will be weakening over land.

if this thing can continue to trend even more south (more bahamas before FL) it could weaken morw.

and if it can continue to trend east, that sharp north hook may happen before the coast, keeping it a little offshore like Matthew was (which wasn't TOO bad windwise, and Im beachside)

for now Ill take this 11am update!

bless u paddleout!

A 100 mile swing to the East and it's all for nothing. Come on Mother Nature, toss that curve ball.

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I was right.

That little "jog" to the east that Mathew did at the last minute is what saved our asses here in Brevard.

There is a growing chance that we Will Not be so lucky this time. The latest model runs are a hair or two north of previous, and they are picking up on the slow down. This SOB really could hit the coast as a 3 or 4 and then just CREEP right up the coast as a 2 or 3!!!!!! How can your house stand CAT 2 or 3 winds?

My neighbor is, I guess, in denial. He's lived in Brevard for about 35 years and he "thinks" he has been through a hurricane before. He has no plans to evacuate (he is not going to leave his "home" to the storm). The last hurricane that actually had an "eye" over Brevard was David 1979. Mathew was pretty bad but, I'm not sure if what we got was considered to be "sustained" hurricane force wind. Frances in 2004 gave Brevard winds in the 60s and a gust of 78 at MI Airport. Jeanne in 2004 had gusts in Melbourne up to 79.

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Dora Hates You

Dude, this has become an all too common fire drill in the past 5 years. Someone needs to tell Mother Nature it's the Carolinas' turn...jk. Hunker down boys.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

oh the irony of "karma" wishing a storm upon another locale. sc got messed up pretty good from matthew, then a good amount of surge from irma and then florence. 3 years in a row. how quickly we forget...

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sneedeker

Bahamas gonna get nailed. Das fo sho.

welp. cat 3 now

harrietscrubman, note the "jk" ...I'm originally from the Carolinas and have many friends and family still there. MAtthew indeed put a hurting on SC. I had a friend (old highschool chemistry teacher) lose hundreds of trees on his pine tree farm. He put in a lot of work to harvest what he could, clean up, and replant. I don't wish that kind of work and stress on anyone.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

ah yes, name calling, lets keep it up... ^ as long as you say JK after something not cool it makes it ok, especially if you have a connection to what you reference. sorry i forgot.

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sneedeker

Edited: 08/30/2019 at 11:24 AM by harrietdubman

Heavy

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Dora Hates You

Hmmmmm, , , , Wilma crossed the state from Cape Romano and exited in Jupiter and, as such, never got that close to Brevard.

Well, yep, , , , the models are pulling it back to the East. The 1 PM "Intermediate Advisory". Has it as a CAT 3 and pretty much brings it straight up I95 after landfall!!!!

BUT, the NHC is still pretty much "in the dark" as to what this will really do. I guess that most of the models are still in very close agreement up to the point of Dorian getting to Freeport. After Freeport, there's a lot of "spaghetti".

BUT, , , , the tropical blogs are all pretty much talking about it going more east and otherwise may not make landfall in Florida!!?? If it is going to be "out at sea" we better hope that it is 100 miles offshore and otherwise takes its right turn at Freeport. WE SHALL SEE.

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Dora Hates You

AND, , , , , by fooking golly, the 5 o'clock just came out with a track right up the beach from Fort Pierce to Jacksonville!!!!

Interactive Map

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/30/2019 at 02:43 PM by dingpatch

I wood take a right turn @ Freeport. I mean, duh. Thats a no brainer. crosses fingers. ya hear dat , DO?

ding - David was a small Cat 1 and, while the eye passed right over my evac point (in a small duplex behind the old Eau Gallie A&P), it really didn't do much to my hidey-hole or my beachside neighborhood. I'm sure you remember Cleo in '64, though. (We both lived in the same neighborhood; I was a sort-of friend of Keith's). Still not a bad one, but, bad enough to take out Patrick Pier. We should show some appreciation for people who decide to stay beachside for a Cat 4, though. It will help to cull the herd. It can only help to take out the stupid.

Yep, I guess it had to be Cleo. We had river fish swimming on NE 1st Street

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Dora Hates You

And, one of the "weather gurus" typed this: "I think the NHC is feeling a little more confidence in the Euro model shift. The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain."

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Dora Hates You

Much harder north in the last two forecasts. Keep swingin babay!

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I was right.

5PM NHC update- some good, some bad.

Bad is its back to a CAT 4 at landfall.

the good/maybe not so good is that the track has shifted more east and northeast.

The east shift is good, because its continuing to trend toward that curve that may end up keeping Dorian off the coast if the trend keeps up.

The north shift is bad becuase that puts Florida landfall further north- the midline of the cone is now over Fort Pierce / Port St. Lucie area..

Let keep hoping for more eastward shifting and some downgrading in intensity.

What exactly is the "euro model shift"?

Well I assumed that the "euro model shift" was the ECMWF model- so I just took a look at the latest (12z run at this time) and it has the storm OFF THE COAST, hanging that right before it hits land (right at about Palm Beach)

..now thats a good trend, but that model still shows the west side of Dorian's winds over the barrier islands in brevard. Pretty strong winds too.. so lets hope it keeps moving east with each run.

a couple more Eastward shifts and SAYONARA stupid storm..

11PM NHC update, has a little bit more NE shift. The centerline has it aimed right at Brevard, but a bit more of this NE in each update and we might have a decent chance at an offshore storm.

Weather Underground currently has it back down to a CAT 3 at landfall,


http://www.wunderground.com/hu...m-dorian?map=forecast

but the storm is really strong out there right now (read NHC discussion #25).. 140 mph sustained winds.


It seems the tracking is still being held to the west by the GFS, with any luck that one will get on board with the NE shift in future runs.

Probably the most detailed update that tells it like it is comes from Levi at Tropical Tidbits in his latest video:








Edited: 08/30/2019 at 08:33 PM by paddleout

Www.windy.com shows the eye Under 20 miles wide currently and winds much slower than weather.com. Windy had indian harbor beach winds not breaking tropical depression / tropical storm on gust levels with or without landfalls. Anyone else trusting windy.com.

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

I would trust NHC and maybe Levi at Tropical Tidbits.

Looking better this morning, but remember that NHC cone is huge. Hurricane steering is extremely complex and this storm is super powerful and still going to be very close even if it is offshore.

somebody sneezes and you are in the eyewall..


This is probably why windy is showing that- the latest GFS run (06z) is shown below. Last night that same model had it crashing through Brevard with winds sustained at 140... so it's a good morning for Florida, but it would take just the slightest change to have that thing back on our doorstep.. look at those winds!

http://ibb.co/LNSR6vk


Edited: 08/31/2019 at 05:38 AM by paddleout

The Weather Tiger guy says that it is not good when the best case is a Matthew-like brush to the coast (and he only gives that a 10-15% chance). Best case (right now) is still a lot of wind for many hours (it is moving very slowly), a lot of water and a LOT of flooding. Keep filling sandbags.

Keep at it...RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE...

Seems like it may be working.

When Floyd passed by in 1999 I surfed Cherie Down with my friend Dallas after it passed and the wind slacked for at least two hours solid double overhead and offshore. So peaky and sweet. I should have evacuated but didn't. Nobody else out for a while because anyone smart evacuated and no one can come over as they close bridges.

Floyd was a Cat 4 storm with this from wikipedia: Floyd was once forecast to strike Florida, but turned away. Instead, Floyd struck The Bahamas at peak strength, causing heavy damage. It then moved parallel to the East Coast of the United States,

Edited: 08/31/2019 at 06:32 AM by Greensleeves

For those of you like me, who wait for levi cowens tropical update video each evening [tropical tidbits]. Follow him on twitter, good stuff all day. He just mentioned something about dorian slowing enough that the cold water wake could catch up to it, weakening it but expanding the wind field. The Gulf stream plays a factor also.

Thanks RC that link was pretty cool- looks like good conditions from Wed on..

What is not to like about this spaghetti run?????!!!!!



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Dora Hates You

What am I going to do with all of this beer now?

WOOT 11 am update even more offshore