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Topic Title: Looks like tropics may be heating up
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Created On: 07/29/2010 04:26 PM
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07/29/2010 04:26 PM
ograbac Posts: 7523 Joined: 07/24/2003	Models started going a little crazy today, here are some: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ ------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Where are we going....... and... why are we in a hand basket? What luck for rulers that men do not think! Adolph Hitler
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07/29/2010 04:37 PM
bus Posts: 1733 Joined: 10/01/2007	That last big wave off Africa is now 90L ------------------------- If you get confused just listen to the music play www.brownbusproductions.com www.cryderphotography.com
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07/29/2010 04:38 PM
JBSURF Posts: 821 Joined: 10/11/2004	Try this one, looks like you maybe right, about 150hrs out http://www.stormsurfing.com/cg...lay.cgi?a=natla_height ------------------------- I've decided to accept the fact - I'll always be a big kid!
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07/29/2010 05:16 PM
bus Posts: 1733 Joined: 10/01/2007	that StormSurf map seems a bit off. Either 18 hours late or a whole 24 or so early. It shows a low at 50W at 00hr where no low is at currently and no low at 30W where a 1010 low is mapped currently. Regardless taht low currntly at 30W on NOAA maps need sto gain a bit ot lattitude. ------------------------- If you get confused just listen to the music play www.brownbusproductions.com www.cryderphotography.com
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07/29/2010 06:28 PM
ograbac Posts: 7523 Joined: 07/24/2003	The NCEP GFS has it off our coast for four days as a cat 4/5.... almost sitting on top of us. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/p.../gfs/18/model_m.shtml Usually it's wrong ten days out .... and lets hope it is this time, we don't want another Jeanne or Frances event sitting on top of us. ------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Where are we going....... and... why are we in a hand basket? What luck for rulers that men do not think! Adolph Hitler
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07/29/2010 06:32 PM
surfsail Posts: 2725 Joined: 07/28/2003	Looks promising and there will be waves for sure - I am heading out of town.. ------------------------- What Would Jesus Bomb?
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07/29/2010 06:57 PM
bus Posts: 1733 Joined: 10/01/2007	Originally posted by: ograbac The NCEP GFS has it off our coast for four days as a cat 4/5.... almost sitting on top of us. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/p.../gfs/18/model_m.shtml Usually it's wrong ten days out .... and lets hope it is this time, we don't want another Jeanne or Frances event sitting on top of us. that could be very very bad ------------------------- If you get confused just listen to the music play www.brownbusproductions.com www.cryderphotography.com
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07/29/2010 08:17 PM
shifty Posts: 484 Joined: 08/01/2008	right on ------------------------- surf to you drop God Bless shifty
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07/29/2010 09:04 PM
DownSouthSlidah Posts: 618 Joined: 09/16/2006	Let's not get too dramatic just yet... Most long range models have it curving north on a path between Bermuda and the US EC: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201090_ensmodel.html#a_topad ------------------------- The master in the art of living makes little distinction between his work and his play, his labor and his leisure, his mind and his body, his information and his recreation, his love and his religion; he hardly knows which is which. He simply pursues his vision of excellence at whatever he does, leaving others to decide whether he is working or playing. To him he's always doing both.
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07/30/2010 08:15 AM
wehorde Posts: 484 Joined: 08/26/2004	Most long range models have it curving north on a path between Bermuda and the US EC ------------------------- Worst thing I ever read - "No tropical cyclones at this time"
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07/30/2010 02:11 PM
DownSouthSlidah Posts: 618 Joined: 09/16/2006	Changed a little in term of track but now not expected to be a storm. It's the low that's just exited Africa that might be one worth watching. ------------------------- The master in the art of living makes little distinction between his work and his play, his labor and his leisure, his mind and his body, his information and his recreation, his love and his religion; he hardly knows which is which. He simply pursues his vision of excellence at whatever he does, leaving others to decide whether he is working or playing. To him he's always doing both.
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07/30/2010 07:08 PM
ograbac Posts: 7523 Joined: 07/24/2003	Hence, "Usually it's wrong ten days out " ------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Where are we going....... and... why are we in a hand basket? What luck for rulers that men do not think! Adolph Hitler
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07/31/2010 06:33 AM
Tiptime Posts: 5375 Joined: 07/24/2003	Monday the 9th!!!!! sorry kids.... ------------------------- The Wavecaster
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07/31/2010 12:14 PM
scombrid Posts: 4986 Joined: 07/24/2003	I was just looking at the visible and IR loops from the floater. Widely scattered farely deep convection and cirrus tops are going out in all directions so there doesn't look like there is much sheer in the area. Looks interesting so far. ------------------------- ...
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07/31/2010 02:14 PM
early eye Posts: 774 Joined: 01/28/2006	Looks like another fizzler. High pressure weather control zapped it !!
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07/31/2010 08:07 PM
WG Posts: 18089 Joined: 03/10/2005	Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 312337 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ABOUT 850 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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07/31/2010 08:09 PM
WG Posts: 18089 Joined: 03/10/2005	flash IR FUNCTOP
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08/01/2010 05:40 AM
Central Floridave Posts: 30701 Joined: 07/22/2003	long range models are definitely waking up! Check this WW3 wave model for 100+hours. ------------------------- surf forecast
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08/01/2010 05:46 AM
Central Floridave Posts: 30701 Joined: 07/22/2003	Sunday morning MRF has a tropical low on top of Central Florida on Tuesday Aug.10. A long way away but something to watch.... ECMWF doesn't got that far in time, but has a tight low North of Dominican Republic on Saturday Aug.7th. 'tis the season...soon... also, isn't it a recuring theme. With tiptime's comment...back to school swell.... ------------------------- surf forecast
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08/01/2010 06:45 AM
Tiptime Posts: 5375 Joined: 07/24/2003	The kids might get a little weekend warm up before school starts, heads up late Sun-Mon models are shaping up nicely. ------------------------- The Wavecaster
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