I could barely believe the rate of intensification I was watching on the satellite loops and radar feed out of St. Martin yesterday and then the dead center crossing of Dominica.

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Hurricane Maria Summary

Maria has continued to strengthen this afternoon, with surface and
flight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft supporting an intensity of 145 kt, and the central
pressure inside the 5 n mi wide eye falling to 916 mb. The
aircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present
about 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed
into enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the
inner eyewall.

 

Color amplified cloud pattern -   2mile radius eye, 18mi radius eyewall .  A small, fast moving storm/tornado.  So.. one trip around this eyewall is 61.6n miles and that means it is spinning 2.4 times around an hour or 1 rotation every 25 minutes.  So, at 10mph forward speed -- PR landfall is in the eye for 30 minutes and 1 rotation of the eye and then another hour of eyewall speed winds - that top 145 above 35 feet -- or 81kt ground speed max.  

island is 110 miles long, so thats 10 hours of eyewall marching over the island with a 30 minute rest to regroup -- and the eyes small, so this keeps n/s/e/w eyewall on land.   figure 40 miles of intense wind = 4 hours of 81kt wind.  However, there are mountains and much of the island is elevated -- so the north side would take the brunt on the approach and the south side take the brunt on the tail end.  so would the mean only 2 hours of intense wind at each location ?   in this case a 3D model would convey the impact best.  

PR has elevations of 3500-4400' above sea level.

 http://www.digitaldataservices.com/images/galleries/custom_mapping//04_puerto_rico_custom_map.jpg

This adds an entirely new dimension to high winds and storms.  To dodge the intensity of the storm go to the south side first and in the eye move to the north side as quickly as possible.  with downed trees on roads its not as possible.  

So, will the 33-35' rule of 44% wind speed drop apply at all elevations or does that only apply at sea level, on level ground?  

 

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/28/2017 at 07:01 AM by TONYlookaround

Now 175 MPH.

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Dora Hates You

Just about everything.

 

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Tony is a dumbass 

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

If you don't like the colors used to depict the temperature of the cloud tops you can always just look at raw infrared. 

Either way it doesn't "look nice". As cyclones go it is terrifying and looks nothing like any category 1 or 2 ever has since we've been sending satellites up to look at such things. Nor has there ever been a 909 surface pressure an anything that "probably used to be called a cat 1-2". 

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It is too bad we can't teleport him into the path so he can sit on a beach and smoke his shit in the gentle breeze. 

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Here she comes..

http://livestream.com/accounts/6180769/events/3168202

Radar without the advertisement from above link:

Puerto Rico Radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge...rlay=11101111&loop=yes

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h)
with higher gusts. Maria is a potentially catastrophic category
5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but
Maria is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous category 4 or 5
hurricane as it moves near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico. Slow weakening is expected after the hurricane emerges over
the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

It's crazy to think that a cat 5 storm is FIFTY times more destructive than a cat 1 storm

PR already has such a problem with their infrastructure anyway. The mayor of San Juan was crying earlier on CNN. So Sad.

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https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

it really is horrible. Having just gone through a small hurricane ourselves and having Gone without power /AC for just a few days it sucked so immensely I can't even fathom what a storm that powerful would be like.. I imagine one would be terrified for their life and their families lives.. and that doesnt take into account the sheer amount of destruction and suffering that will come in the next 24 hours.. its really heartbreaking

this is sad.

 

 

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/20/2017 at 01:57 AM by TONYlookaround

landfall right now in PR.  Pray for these US citizens!   

 

worse is  -- in the middle of the night.

 

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
800 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...EYE OF MARIA LOCATED OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...


landed with 150 mph.

dkaye..  - were you asleep during physics in high school and drivers ed?  Kenetic energy doubles every 10 miles an hour in a car, so the same would apply to flying debris in a storm that hits stationary objects.  The point I make is that the reported wind speeds of the NHC are overstated and exagerated.  ground speed is 44% less, meaning that the impressive 150mph number they report is 66 mph overstated (fortunately).  The ground wind speed would be at a maximum of 84mph.  

I'm not sure the effect of the ground speed if a 12% grade is applied or the ground elevation ridge extends to 4,400'.  

 

Watching the fly over video of Dominica -  most buildings had roofs intact.  Poorly built, sheet metal structures blew apart, homes in hollars seemed to have little to no damage (from the plane).  That would be consistent with 84mph ground speed wind.   

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it's never too late to have a happy childhood...

Edited: 09/20/2017 at 08:40 AM by TONYlookaround

Looks like the Puerto Rico Radar was taking out. Ugh. Poor Puerto Rico.

As of 5 pm Atlantic time (4 Eastern), Maria was 25 mi NNW of Aguadilla, category 2.  

It's going to very hard to recover from this. Very primitive conditions for probably six months.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Looks like it went corner to corner across PR any updates from Aguadilla?

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"Don't count the days, make the days count." -Ali
#rydyrstrong