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Topic Title: Things that make you go....
Topic Summary: HMMMMM....
Created On: 08/29/2018 06:55 AM
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 08/29/2018 06:55 AM
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Plan B

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Long ways out, but currently both Euro and GFS are fairly close agreement.... PPPPPLEASE.... big long period swells and no damage this year

Edited: 08/29/2018 at 07:01 AM by Plan B
 08/29/2018 07:11 AM
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e11even

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Ross thinks so too: "The Tropics are heating up, I mean it is literally getting hotter in that region every day. Based on my gut feeling, we could have a swell event starting by September 6th at the earliest. I feel like by September 12th we could have a significant swell event start. While the September 12th date is more likely. I think we could see something week but fun, (chest high ground swell) between now and September 12th."

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 08/29/2018 07:18 AM
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Plan B

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sounds about right if current weather models pans together.... preliminary windswell on the 5th/6th, and and prob peak Gswell on maybe the 9th. They tend to arrive before swell "surf" forecasts usually didctate. I havent looked at any surf forecasts... just weather GFS is a bit more bullish on this system but keeps it OTS, so I'm hoping theyre right (but they usually are, especially on initial runs) btw... the spacing issue on the forum sucks again... looks like paragraphs before I submit

Edited: 08/29/2018 at 07:24 AM by Plan B
 08/29/2018 07:52 AM
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daner

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That looks promising! No offense, but forecasting that tropical storms and their swells will start coming in mid September is like forecasting that the sun will come up in the morning.

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Edited: 08/29/2018 at 07:57 AM by daner
 08/29/2018 08:51 AM
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Central Floridave

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Finally, something on the long range!
 08/29/2018 09:34 AM
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Plan B

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Let's hope this weather pattern is NOT accurate
 08/30/2018 06:35 AM
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Plan B

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Tracks of the major models are pretty consistent. major divergence in in tensity predictions.. The GFS is calling strong Cat 3... the Euro is calling for a strong TS. Given how bullish the NHC is on this system rt now, I'd say the Euro may be undercalling, but the GFS model usually gets way bullish on initial runs, and handles storms better once theyre established. It should stay a ways out there, so swell will be more determined by how much it grows in diameter...... Bill could be a comparable if it gets strong enough (but it got a bit closer, sending more swell to the NE). One thing theyre agreeing with, is a high pressure building in the NE, keeping the storm out to sea.... but potentially bringing onshores with the peak of the swell. still better than land impact... I'm over that shit. Still a LONG ways out so everything WILL change, just something to potentially look forward to..... I would REALLY love a big Cape Verde storm swell

Edited: 08/30/2018 at 06:40 AM by Plan B
 08/30/2018 07:20 AM
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Waverider969

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fingers crossed
 08/30/2018 09:30 AM
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Plan B

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In the meantime, closer to home....
 08/30/2018 11:42 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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HOLY TRIPLE hope/hype thread alert, Batman! I'll have what Plan B is having.... &
 08/30/2018 02:53 PM
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rc

Posts: 1147
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With Bill (Aug 22, 2009), I drew the comparison to Georges (Sep '98) when the winds were both 140-145mph at the same Lat/Lon, Georges blew up at Hangers, PAFB, but was a dud for Bill.

The spot? Ponce Inlet. Who can forget August 22, 2009?

I have never been able to correlate 2 storms as they all have their individual characteristics, like snowflakes I guess. We can try, though.

Happy 'Cane season to all, I love this!
 08/30/2018 03:39 PM
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Kimo63

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The surfline model has this storm spinning around in the mid Atlantic for five days in our surf window from Sept 7 -12 just sending a nice pulse of swell . Just hope we get some favorable winds
 08/30/2018 04:26 PM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: StirfryMcflurry HOLY TRIPLE hope/hype thread alert, Batman! I'll have what Plan B is having.... &
Check the time..... Plan B was the first one to the bar
 08/30/2018 04:29 PM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: rc With Bill (Aug 22, 2009), I drew the comparison to Georges (Sep '98) when the winds were both 140-145mph at the same Lat/Lon, Georges blew up at Hangers, PAFB, but was a dud for Bill. The spot? Ponce Inlet. Who can forget August 22, 2009? I have never been able to correlate 2 storms as they all have their individual characteristics, like snowflakes I guess. We can try, though. Happy 'Cane season to all, I love this!
Haha... Nice. Yeah I dont really remember Georges. 95-96 were off the hook, then some slow seasons (I thought 98 was one... aside from Bonnie. Firing the day I left for mexico ) Ponce and St. Augustine were prob the 2 best spots for Bill. It was smokin up here. Rare that we see that kind of lined up juice....... I havent seen the latest updates but midday the GFS backed way down and was predicting cat 1 now, so we'll see what happens. I just got my custom lost RNF retro fish last friday, so even small long lined up waves would be welcome..... and just came from seeing Ken White shape me a new pintail step up that should be sweeeeet ....... Why do I see paragraphs until I submit a post?

Edited: 08/30/2018 at 04:33 PM by Plan B
 08/30/2018 04:42 PM
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Plan B

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OK.... I didnt want to add more to the big block above. Seems that the 6pm update is back on the hype train. EURO is sticking with TS / CAT 1... but shows more hope to the one behind it.... the HWRF (which is a good intensity predictor) is saying Cat 2, so I'll go with that. Our best shot for serious swell from that distance will be if the windfield spreads out fairly far

Edited: 08/30/2018 at 04:45 PM by Plan B
 08/30/2018 05:45 PM
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rc

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All I can say is anything is better than what we've had and thanks for your inputs B! Also, love Levi and tropical tidbits who should be lighting up soon.

P.S. Georges was insane. Best 4@18 SE direction ever seen on the east coast.

Hangars, PAFB, Kevin Cross, Larry Mayo, et al, OMG. Gotta love the canes!
 08/31/2018 04:50 AM
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Plan B

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I remembered the name Georges, so I took a look...... yeah now I remember that storm tearing up the Caribbean. Pretty sure caught some smoking rights at Blowhole (when it was still a wave RIP ) for that one.......anyway looks like I wasnt the only one interested in that last map I posted earlier.... hopefully something doesnt blow up in the Gulf's bathtub:
 08/31/2018 04:52 AM
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Plan B

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OH, and in regards to the system coming off Africa.... I work as an independent contractor and usually can just make my own schedule, but of course I have THREE project deadlines due that week and lowtides are midday so it will probably be firing
 08/31/2018 06:06 AM
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Plan B

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I'm NOT buying these scenarios.... but a glimmer of hope (and potential DOOM up north) and a reason to eat yer Wheaties...
 08/31/2018 07:04 AM
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miker

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Storm in the gulf blowing red tide and blue/green algae everywhere. Hmm, it would be like sharknado but worse.
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