BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 630 PM AST...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 68.7W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 630 PM AST (2230 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Andrea was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 68.7 West. The storm is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in
forward speed and a turn to the northeast is expected on Tuesday,
followed by an eastward motion by Tuesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Andrea is expected to remain southwest or
south of Bermuda during the next day or two.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening should
begin late Tuesday, and Andrea is expected to dissipate on
Wednesday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northeast of
the center.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters measured a minimum central pressure
of 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

Subtropical Storm Andrea Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012019
630 PM AST Mon May 20 2019

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that the area of low pressure
that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring to the
southwest of Bermuda has developed into a subtropical storm.
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have recently exited the cyclone and
found that the system has developed a well-defined center and has a
minimum pressure of about 1006 mb. The maximum adjusted flight-level
and surface SFMR winds support an intensity of about 35 kt. The
cyclone is considered subtropical at this time because it is
interacting with an upper-level low pressure system to its west,
has a relatively large radius of maximum wind, and its overall
appearance in satellite images.

Based on satellite and aircraft fixes today, the initial motion of
Andrea is estimated to be northward at 12 kt as it has been moving
in the flow between a subtropical ridge to its east and a mid- to
upper-level low to its west. The models show Andrea slowing down
and gradually turning to the northeast on Tuesday and eastward by
Tuesday night as it moves on the northern periphery of the ridge.

Andrea could strengthen slightly through early Tuesday while it
remains in a fairly moist and unstable atmosphere. However, after
that time, gradual weakening should commence due to less favorable
conditions, and all of the reliable models show Andrea opening into
a trough and becoming absorbed by a cold front on Wednesday. The
NHC official track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2230Z 28.8N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 30.2N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 31.1N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 31.5N 66.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Looks like a wave maker. Also, after it moves east, models showing northeast flow off Carolinas and NE swell all weekend.

Would we see swell from this one over this holiday weekend?

If we get swell from it, it will come along with windchop Wed and Thursday. However, two other wave makers in the works to bring surf for the weekend, and sizable long period swell on the long range model for Monday.

Damn the luck....this is the only thing I have been riding.....note the launch pad in the distance behind me


Edited: 05/21/2019 at 04:01 AM by RocketSurf

Now that is awesome!



-------------------------
I was right.

Sorry for the hijack CFd....and now back to the NWS:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

I don't GAF, just stoked to have something to look forward to!

-------------------------

https://www.instagram.com/dj_kaye_/

Wind chop for Friday for South FLa.

Rocket surf, what model and make is that thing?

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

NHC padding the numbers (Again....)

I believe it is a 2017 double hump 4 runner, only one speed but quite economical high performance vehicle. Gives milk everyday (or I hope it's milk) and if it dies on the side of the road you can eat it......

Edited: 05/21/2019 at 09:40 AM by RocketSurf

.MARINE...
Tonight and Thursday...Some open water swell entering the coastal
waters overnight should bring seas up into the 3 ft range near
shore and to 3-4 ft offshore overnight, and further increase in
sig wave height into the 4 foot range over a larger portion of
the marine area by late Thu.

Friday-Saturday...Easterly winds will remain 15-20 kt south of
Sebastian Inlet and around 15 kt northward through early Friday.
Winds will gradually subside to 10-15 kt by late Friday morning and
continue through Saturday. Besides a few 6 ft seas near the Gulf
Stream early Friday, seas will run in the 4-5 ft range Friday before
subsiding to 3-4 ft on Saturday.

Sunday-Monday...Seas will further subside to 2-3 ft Sunday but may
approach 3-4 ft again on Monday. Winds will be E/ENE on Sunday
around 10 kt and more southeasterly by Monday around 5-10 kt.