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Topic Title: Hurricane Prediction - totally wrong
Topic Summary:
Created On: 07/30/2019 07:03 AM

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08/05/2019 07:06 AM
Central Floridave Posts: 52278 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
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08/05/2019 08:00 AM
mp2115 Posts: 174 Joined Forum: 05/29/2009	"The suppressed Kelvin wave that is shutting down convection over the Atlantic's main development region is predicted to bring an unfavorable environment for developing tropical cyclones. Expecting things could stay quiet until Aug 18, when another CC Kelvin wave moves in." Wunderground.com
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08/05/2019 08:02 AM
Central Floridave Posts: 52278 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	Can you surf on Kelvin waves?
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08/05/2019 08:41 AM
StirfryMcflurry Posts: 8746 Joined Forum: 08/17/2016	Originally posted by: Central Floridave Can you surf on Kelvin waves? ONLY if you are a GATOR
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08/05/2019 08:43 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Keep Kelvin surpressed!
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08/05/2019 09:38 AM
Dahui321 Posts: 207 Joined Forum: 08/29/2014	and here I always called it SAL.... Who the hell is calvin? and does he make waves?
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08/05/2019 10:30 AM
tom Posts: 8019 Joined Forum: 07/25/2003	Is a speeling errar. They mean Calvin. ------------------------- add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
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08/05/2019 05:14 PM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Busted wrist..... Hoping cousin SAL brings some pizzas from Africa and floats around for awile....
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08/06/2019 06:04 AM
Central Floridave Posts: 52278 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	LOL. virtual buoys shows a downward trend for the next Wake me up when September ends. -green day
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08/08/2019 08:48 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Hopefully this is a bit delayed: SSTs are currently above average in the central and western MDR, and below average near Africa. The For the MDR as a whole SSTs during July were about 0.2°C above average. Climate models predict near- or slightly above-average SSTs during ASO, with most models predicting departures of around 0.2°C. In the atmosphere, competing factors are currently present. Conditions over the eastern MDR and western Africa favor increased activity, and are associated with the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995 (Goldenberg et al. 2001, Bell and Chelliah 2006, Klotzbach and Gray 2008). Conversely, conditions in the western MDR are consistent with reduced activity typically seen during El Niño. Four inter-related atmospheric features are now present in the eastern MDR and western Africa in association with the ongoing high-activity era, and they are expected to persist. These factors include 1) an enhanced West African monsoon system, 2) anomalous westerly winds at 700-hPa and a more conducive African Easterly Jet, 3) an enhanced upper-level ridge, and 4) decreased vertical wind shear. These conditions directly contribute to increased hurricane activity in the eastern MDR. In contrast, in the western MDR anomalously strong vertical wind shear and anomalous sinking motion have been present in association with El Niño. El Niño has now dissipated, and dynamical models predict a lessening of El Niño's impact on the vertical wind shear during ASO. The CFS Hi-Res and NMME models are predicting the anomalously strong shear to become confined to the western Caribbean Sea. The CFS Low-Res model is predicting near-average shear in that region, while the GFDL model is predicting below-average shear. Also, all four models are predicting below-average vertical wind shear across the northern MDR extending northward across the subtropical North Atlantic. The activity within the MDR during ASO is the main contributor to the overall activity of the hurricane season. The combination of a more rapid demise of El Niño's lingering impacts, warmer SSTs in the MDR, weaker vertical wind shear, and a stronger West African monsoon favors hurricane activity near the upper ends of our predicted ranges. Conversely, if El Niño's lingering impacts are protracted and stronger, this would favor activity in the lower portion of the predicted ranges. Edited: 08/08/2019 at 09:01 AM by Plan B
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08/08/2019 10:23 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	I'm out for 6 weeks too.... NOAA UPDATE for '19 Cane season
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08/08/2019 11:14 AM
daner Posts: 7918 Joined Forum: 04/20/2004	That is called covering all the bases. ------------------------- Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean
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08/09/2019 05:58 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Well... the adjustment is based on the fizzling out of El Nino. I guess we'll see how long those effects take place.... I'm hoping not for 5 more weeks
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08/10/2019 06:27 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Yo SAL.... Edited: 08/10/2019 at 06:27 AM by Plan B
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08/13/2019 06:32 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	btw.... Hurricane Charley was 15 years ago today. I remember going to Panama Hatties for a hurricane party and they had 5 gal buckets everywhere for the leaking roof. Surf the next morn was the weakest head high surf of all time as it raced NE Edited: 08/13/2019 at 06:35 AM by Plan B
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08/13/2019 06:38 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	visible from space:
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08/14/2019 12:04 PM
scombrid Posts: 18036 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	Anybody notice the upper level winds? Looked at a visible loop just now. Strong NE winds at the cirrus cloud altitude from here to Bermuda. Like a jet stream counter current. ------------------------- ...
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08/16/2019 05:59 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	I think it's going to be a late start, and make up for lost time... like a hungry bear coming out of hibernation....... Hopefully wrong.... unless there's a bunch of storms just cruising around 600 miles offshore
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08/16/2019 06:19 AM
scombrid Posts: 18036 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	When the big giant high pressure lifts a little north and quits suppressing the ITCZ so far south and the upper level winds relax a little, it could be like popping the cork on a shaken bottle of champagne. ------------------------- ...
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08/16/2019 09:57 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	exactly. Hopefully it doesnt lift just north enough to create a blocking fast-track to the east coast Edited: 08/16/2019 at 09:57 AM by Plan B
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