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Topic Title: Dorian named. Tracking interesting. Topic Summary: May get sheared by the island mountains. Created On: 08/25/2019 11:41 AM |
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08/28/2019 08:21 AM
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Wed 11pm update
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH |
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08/28/2019 08:24 AM
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28.6N 80.3W is right off of Cape Canaveral early Monday.
Someone tell the models to recurve this thing again! Come ON 12Zulu updates....RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE.... |
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08/28/2019 08:59 AM
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f()ck NHC but more importantly, f()ck current a$$hole in charge for cutting funding. these people really have no clue regarding forecasting. they measure data real time and give it to you, that's about it. i dont need to tell most of you but going from tropical storm to major hurricane in under twelve hours is hard to accept...prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
------------------------- sneedeker Edited: 08/28/2019 at 09:01 AM by harrietdubman |
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08/28/2019 09:17 AM
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Maybe Home Depot gave NHC some money to up the forecast!
Sales were slow with just a cat 1 forecast. Cat 3 gets people attentions better. Could be true. NHC just sent out a tweet to prepare now. |
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08/28/2019 09:18 AM
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08/28/2019 09:19 AM
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08/28/2019 09:38 AM
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Latest update has it hitting FL as a Major Hurricane
Waves should be good though ------------------------- Brevard Surf Report |
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08/28/2019 10:18 AM
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Latest update has it hitting FL as a Major Hurricane Waves should be good though Lol I was thinking the same! ------------------------- Time and tide wait for no one..... |
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08/28/2019 10:24 AM
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Cat 2 (or 3) beeline right for us, Friday and Saturday gonna be yuuuuge
Surf some before you take care of your home and family I'm still certain this thing will make some last minute turn Edited: 08/28/2019 at 10:24 AM by seaspray |
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08/28/2019 10:51 AM
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The surf and wind will be crap- always is. |
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08/28/2019 11:40 AM
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Latest GFS and Euro runs have SFL and then Panhandle getting hammered by a major.
Seems the more likely track, based on climatology. Crap |
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08/28/2019 11:57 AM
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A 1:59 note from a weather analyst: (I've added some Emphasis)
"I just spent a half hour looking at the western ATL sat loops which presented the picture of the complex situation ahead of Doreen. . ..There is a weak ULL feature to its NW and it is being influenced by the flow around that feature. Ahead of that feature is a NW-SE flow which then becomes westerly over the FL Straits. The ULL is not strong and its influence on Doreen seems to be lessening. If so the NW track currently being seen should become more WNW..fairly soon. In the CONUS: NW of Florida a trough is pushing SE-E toward exiting CONUS probably in a day or two. By then Doreen should be in the lower Bahamas where a more traditional SE-NW flow should be evident.. A generally easterly flow seems to be following across the ATL behind all this. And if it becomes more of an influence it could be the cause for Doreen to take a more westerly path. I think this complex situation will begin to be come more clear by tomorrow." ------------------------- Dora Hates You Edited: 08/28/2019 at 12:14 PM by dingpatch |
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08/28/2019 12:29 PM
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------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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08/28/2019 12:53 PM
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Since the name of the storm is DORIAN and not DOREEN, I woulnt hold that analyst's input in the highest regard: p |
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08/28/2019 01:13 PM
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PLAN B speaking of tape, try that NO RESIDUE duct tape by 3M (I think)
its like a dark silver color- a little bit more expensive but strong as hell AND a breeze to remive with no mess they have it at lowes and i think even publix |
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08/28/2019 01:20 PM
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Ummmm, , , , , ahhhhh, , , , , am I missing something? Tape? What is tape going to do for you in at CAT 4?
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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08/28/2019 01:34 PM
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Edited: 08/28/2019 at 01:35 PM by Plan B |
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08/28/2019 01:38 PM
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I get it!! Good luck, if comes to the point that you, me, we need it!!!
------------------------- Dora Hates You |
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08/28/2019 02:03 PM
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Can someone merge these threads? in the meantime.... REALLY BAD:
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08/29/2019 03:45 AM
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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019 Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said, the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory. Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt. Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48 hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles, continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches Florida. Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to maintain that status until it reaches land. Key Messages: 1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center. 2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this week and into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND |
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Dorian named. Tracking interesting.
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