Latest GFS and Euro runs have SFL and then Panhandle getting hammered by a major.
Seems the more likely track, based on climatology.
Crap

A 1:59 note from a weather analyst: (I've added some Emphasis)

"I just spent a half hour looking at the western ATL sat loops which presented the picture of the complex situation ahead of Doreen. . ..There is a weak ULL feature to its NW and it is being influenced by the flow around that feature. Ahead of that feature is a NW-SE flow which then becomes westerly over the FL Straits. The ULL is not strong and its influence on Doreen seems to be lessening. If so the NW track currently being seen should become more WNW..fairly soon.
In the CONUS: NW of Florida a trough is pushing SE-E toward exiting CONUS probably in a day or two. By then Doreen should be in the lower Bahamas where a more traditional SE-NW flow should be evident.. A generally easterly flow seems to be following across the ATL behind all this. And if it becomes more of an influence it could be the cause for Doreen to take a more westerly path.
I think this complex situation will begin to be come more clear by tomorrow."

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 12:14 PM by dingpatch

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Dora Hates You