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Topic Title: Just let me know when the winds turn offshore....
Topic Summary: Hurricane Humberto
Created On: 09/12/2019 03:44 PM
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 09/12/2019 03:44 PM
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Central Floridave

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER


Edited: 09/18/2019 at 05:02 AM by Central Floridave
 09/12/2019 04:16 PM
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ww

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Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Such a deal. We might get more wind out of this one than Dorian. NHC
 09/12/2019 04:54 PM
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Greensleeves

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It should go offshore about the 12th of never

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 09/12/2019 05:02 PM
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cgeis

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuGSRKMn4WQ
 09/12/2019 07:55 PM
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ww

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Tropical Tidbits, Greensleeves' link. Nice discussion.
 09/13/2019 02:45 AM
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scombrid

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Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Most of the 6z model runs (UK and ECMWF) keep it off the east coast. NHC 5AM update reflects this but their forecast is still to the left of the model consensus. Intensity forecasts are ticking up with the possible track staying over water.

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 09/13/2019 03:59 AM
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Central Floridave

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Offshore winds possible Sunday/Monday. You guys don't follow directions very well.

SUNDAY
Tropical storm conditions possible. Southwest winds 40
to 45 knots with gusts to around 60 knots diminishing to 15 to 20
knots in the afternoon. Seas 12 feet subsiding to 6 feet in the
afternoon. Extremely rough on the intracoastal waters. Showers
likely and chance of thunderstorms.


MONDAY
West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A moderate
chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
 09/13/2019 06:34 AM
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scombrid

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12Z run of models (except for GFS) remind me of Dennis 1999.

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 09/13/2019 08:02 AM
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scombrid

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NHC 15Z forecast update reflects the 12Z model runs. Looks favorable so far.

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 09/13/2019 08:17 AM
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Central Floridave

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Friday nhc 11 o'clock update shows recurve and heading to Bermuda. Potential Cat 1 in 96 hours. Bring surf and offshore winds please. We need it.
 09/13/2019 09:31 AM
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tom

Posts: 6474
Joined Forum: 07/25/2003

You guys don't follow directions very well.
Surfer. More like guidelines than actual rules...

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
 09/13/2019 10:20 AM
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johnnyboy

Posts: 14614
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

the 12th of never. I hate that its true.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 09/13/2019 10:25 AM
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Greensleeves

Posts: 12111
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

me too johnny boy but we remain ever optimistic since we are florida "surfers"

should we wax up our big sticks so we can explore the green room?




fool us once - shame on you

fool us twice - hey we are florida surfers



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Edited: 09/13/2019 at 10:32 AM by Greensleeves
 09/13/2019 06:09 PM
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ww

Posts: 14714
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

8 pm Friday forecast path is even farther offshore and north of the Bahamas. We're at the edge of the cone of uncertainty; tropical storm watch still in effect.
 09/14/2019 08:03 AM
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chopola

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Joined Forum: 09/04/2004

As of Saturday morning, things are beginning to look very interesting.
 09/14/2019 08:10 AM
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e11even

Posts: 108
Joined Forum: 02/20/2014

NWS showing due west wind all day SUNDAY and half the day on monday. Get on it tomorrow boys and girls!!!

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 09/14/2019 08:50 AM
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harrietdubman

Posts: 214
Joined Forum: 11/07/2015

Originally posted by: e11even NWS showing due west wind all day SUNDAY and half the day on monday. Get on it tomorrow boys and girls!!!
if i went by what the nws said i'd probably never surf.

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sneedeker

 09/14/2019 08:57 AM
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Skunkape

Posts: 122
Joined Forum: 08/03/2015

Wed maybe noc so up in our grill ffs poles?
 09/14/2019 09:06 AM
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SurferMic

Posts: 909
Joined Forum: 06/30/2012

Why wait for offshores??? fun/challenging at some locations, Nice to surf with ya again Daner!!!....Pic of some local air droping into oblivion..great air drops today..

It was kinda thick out there...Icing the back now for round two later...

Edited: 09/14/2019 at 09:17 AM by SurferMic
 09/14/2019 09:42 AM
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Skunkape

Posts: 122
Joined Forum: 08/03/2015

Grievous
FORUMS : Surfing : Just let me know when the winds turn offshore....

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