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Topic Title: TS Karen
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Created On: 09/22/2019 05:42 AM

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09/22/2019 05:42 AM
dingpatch Posts: 19085 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	------------------------- Dora Hates You
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09/22/2019 09:02 AM
dingpatch Posts: 19085 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	Way, way, too soon to be too concerned about it, , , , , , , , , , BUT, the models' westward turn on Friday/Saturday has a little bit of "pucker" factor to it. ------------------------- Dora Hates You Edited: 09/22/2019 at 01:38 PM by dingpatch
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09/22/2019 09:37 AM
pompano Posts: 5804 Joined Forum: 01/06/2005	no Bermuda high to speak of all summer and now the quantity and magnitude of the highs parking on the East coast are fast and furious.
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09/22/2019 01:16 PM
ww Posts: 16102 Joined Forum: 08/17/2007	Windy shows the European model (evidently the orange line) snding Karen into Cuba as a hurricane. US model shows it sort of dissipating.
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09/22/2019 04:23 PM
dingpatch Posts: 19085 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	Fooking models are in pretty good agreement about Karen taking "a left"!!!! Still too soon though, , , , , , ------------------------- Dora Hates You
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09/22/2019 05:29 PM
ww Posts: 16102 Joined Forum: 08/17/2007	Way too soon, but ugly anyway.
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09/22/2019 06:30 PM
Kimo63 Posts: 541 Joined Forum: 04/22/2012	Keep an eye on the TVCN and AVNO , two of the better models this year
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09/23/2019 04:52 AM
dingpatch Posts: 19085 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	This morning's run (9/23) ------------------------- Dora Hates You
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09/23/2019 06:23 AM
dingpatch Posts: 19085 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	"Once beyond the Caribbean the Bahamas and Florida may want to watch this and the models suggest the ridge will be strong enough after Jerry moves out to push Karen toward the west toward Florida and the Bahamas, the forecast track shows the bend west at the end. .Plenty of time to watch, but Karen has a much higher chance to be forced west than any of the other recent systems." ------------------------- Dora Hates You
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09/23/2019 06:43 AM
Central Floridave Posts: 52278 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	Karen moving west is better for swell making... But...
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09/23/2019 07:46 AM
SurferMic Posts: 1251 Joined Forum: 06/30/2012	Karen is getting sheered, should be downgraded to an open wave on the 11AM update, Hurricane hunters flight path look like they are frantically searching for a center, trying to find something to keep it as a TS...I do not think this will do anything but bring rain and more SE/E winds
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09/23/2019 08:15 AM
SurferMic Posts: 1251 Joined Forum: 06/30/2012	Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122019 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019..... "Although deep convection has recently developed near the low-level swirl seen in early morning visible satellite imagery, the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating Karen has had difficultly finding a closed surface circulation. It is possible that a center reformation will occur near the new convection, so the system is still being classified as a tropical cyclone for now. The aircraft has found believable SFMR winds of 30-35 kt over the eastern portion of the system, which still supports an initial intensity of 35 kt. Given the current structure of Karen and moderate to strong northeasterly shear that should remain over the storm for the next 24 hours, no change in strength is anticipated during that time. It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already." Edited: 09/23/2019 at 08:16 AM by SurferMic
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09/23/2019 08:43 AM
mp2115 Posts: 174 Joined Forum: 05/29/2009	Until we get to Halloween I'm not counting any storm out. I thought Dorian was finished all models and NHC was about to fold and Boom.
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09/23/2019 08:59 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Tropical storm warnings are up for Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands ahead of Tropical Storm Karen, which will be approaching the islands from the south on Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters found a highly disorganized Karen on Monday morning, with a broad center of circulation and virtually all the winds below tropical storm strength. Showers and thunderstorms (convection) had reformed near Karen's low-level center by late morning after having been shunted well to the south overnight. Karen's top winds were set at 40 mph in the 11 am EDT advisory from the National Hurricane Center, in anticipation that Karen will reconsolidate around the low-level center. "It is also possible that Karen could degenerate into an open wave, if it has not done so already," NHC noted. Northerly wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, due, in part, to upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Jerry, will be Karen's main nemesis over the next day or so. These upper winds are disrupting the circulation and injecting dry air into the otherwise moist environment surrounding Karen. Despite very warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of around 29°C (84°F) in the eastern Caribbean, Karen is too disorganized to intensify much before it reaches Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Karen's ill-defined center will most likely move across Puerto Rico on Tuesday, bringing periods of squally weather and up to 6" of localized rainfall to the island and the adjacent Virgin Islands. .......................... The long-range outlook for Karen The big question for later this week and beyond is how Karen will evolve as it moves north of Puerto Rico. Conditions will be much more supportive for development late this week, as a strong subtropical ridge will be developing to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This will allow upper-level winds to diminish and wind shear to drop substantially, into the 10 - 20 knot range. These conditions should allow Karen to become a more organized system atop warm SSTs of 28-29°C (82-84°F), and Karen could be a hurricane by this weekend. Karen will likely become trapped beneath the upper ridge late this week, when the storm's northward trek will slow or stall. What happens at that point will depend in part on Tropical Storm Jerry. If Jerry moves slowly out to sea, it may leave behind enough of a break in the ridge to coax Karen on a recurving path as well. The more quickly Jerry moves away, though, the more likely it is that the upper ridge will strengthen behind it and push Karen westward, towards The Bahamas and U.S. East Coast. Karen's future beyond mid-week is almost impossible to figure out before we know what #Jerry will do. There is remarkable spread on where the storm will be on Wednesday evening, which will influence #Karen's steering .....................Two of our leading track models, the GFS and European, differed starkly on their long-term prognoses for Karen in their 0Z Monday ensemble output. All 21 of the GFS ensemble members kept Karen stalled or recurved the storm, whereas only about 10-20% of the European ensemble members recurved Karen, while more than 20% of the remainder took Karen across Florida or Cuba more than a week from now. In their operational runs from 0Z Monday, the European model showed Karen speeding across the Florida Keys next Monday, the GFS had Karen moving across South Florida next Tuesday, and the UKMET depicted Karen more than 500 miles east of northern Florida, moving slowly westward, by next Monday. It's clearly way too soon to assign any firm probabilities to these divergent long-range outcomes. - Dr. Jeff Masters Unofficial: Looks like Lorenzo's gonna send some cannolis Edited: 09/23/2019 at 09:01 AM by Plan B
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09/23/2019 06:13 PM
SunriseSurfer Posts: 8610 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	It's awful early but.... ..... possible Lorenzo swell ------------------------- Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013
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09/23/2019 06:22 PM
chopola Posts: 1825 Joined Forum: 09/04/2004	So many chances and all we get are teasers. Maybe Karen will be the one, but I am not holding my breath At least we haven't had a direct impact.
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09/24/2019 06:25 AM
dingpatch Posts: 19085 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	"After this it is expected to move north or just east of north for most of the week before slowing down over the weekend then moving back to the west all while remaining a tropical storm. Beyond this things still are interesting as the ridge that develops between Karen and Jerry is strong enough to push Karen westward which means Florida and the Bahamas will need to watch this system into the mid to later part of next week. As of now it looks like shear and dry air conditions will likely keep Karen on the weaker side, but intensity forecasting is very difficult" ------------------------- Dora Hates You
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09/24/2019 11:08 AM
Central Floridave Posts: 52278 Joined Forum: 07/22/2003	Tuesday/2pm NHC update says still will intensify, but the afternoon model runs show it go poof and disappear. Hope we at least get a swell off it.
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09/24/2019 12:10 PM
dingpatch Posts: 19085 Joined Forum: 07/24/2003	The "Spaz getti" models are trying to get a grip, , , , ,! ------------------------- Dora Hates You
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09/25/2019 06:16 AM
Plan B Posts: 3302 Joined Forum: 03/08/2004	Is that Buh post real? LOL..... anyway........Place your bets folks! Step right up and place ya bets.... Edited: 09/25/2019 at 06:17 AM by Plan B
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FORUMS : Surfing : TS Karen

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