Headed away from us

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Dora Hates You

Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019
500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019

The low-level center of Sebastien has been exposed over the past
several hours, as northwesterly shear of 20-30 kt has been pushing
any deep convection off to the southeastern portion of the cyclone.
The initial advisory intensity is being held at 40 kt and is based
on an earlier scatterometer pass that sampled maximum winds of
39 kt.

The initial motion is 305/10 kt. Sebastien is forecast to be steered
to the northwest around a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic
through tonight. By Wednesday, the cyclone should turn to the north,
and then accelerate northeastward Wednesday night as the cyclone
gets caught up in the flow between the retreating ridge and ahead of
an approaching cold front. The model guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track keeps
the cyclone over open waters for the duration of its existence.

The shear is not expected to decrease much over the next couple
days while the system remains a tropical cyclone. There may be an
opportunity for some strengthening Wednesday and Wednesday night as
Sebastien turns to the north and northeast and resides under some
favorable upper-level diffluence. By 48 hours, Sebastien is expected
to transition to an extratropical cyclone just ahead of an
approaching cold front. Therefore, additional strengthening
indicated beyond 36 hours should be due to baroclinic processes. The
cyclone should then become absorbed by the cold front by late this
week. The official forecast was adjusted slightly higher from the
previous one at 36 and 48 hours to reflect the anticipated
intensification of the system as it begins its extratropical
transition.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 20.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 21.3N 60.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.6N 61.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 24.2N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 26.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Gonna be debatable if we see a swell from it. Quickly turning away and pretty far away.


At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 61.0 West. Sebastien is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn to the
north-northwest and north is expected later today. A turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours. Sebastien is expected to become an extratropical cyclone
in a couple of days and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

It's in the perfect location.... but given it's small diameter and the onslaught of NW windswell it'll be facing, returns will be minor..... waist high bump? conditions should at least be clean.... after the past few days my body needs a break anyway. ha

Virtual buoy for Sat/Sunday show 2-3 feet at 10 seconds from the ESE. Not too exciting after what we just experienced, but weekend warriors unite!

virtual buoy now shows 3 feet 11 seconds from the ESE for Saturday. May be something. wind forecast is light for Saturday, maybe/maybe.

The storm is now moving North and soon away. However, it just may have sent a swell our way. Small one. Let's hope so. Keep this swell train rolling!

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Sebastien could become a
hurricane tonight or Friday before weakening this weekend.

nearby buoy 41044

windfetch.... tough sledding, but swell should be well groomed

yup. Sebastien swell has a lotta going against it!

Hoping it makes it. But...long way away. prob north of the cape will see it better if at all.