Brevard gets hit August 10th. Get the Windy app and you'll see. Gas up, battery up, water bottle up. Basically empty the stores.

Edited: 08/02/2019 at 04:39 AM by Quadro

Nothing more than three days out is reliable. But ya never know maybe we get some real ground swell from it.

From the Aug 8th Windy app ....
.... something is "predicted" to be out there.

But, afterall it is the time of the season.










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Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

WINDY.com....ECMWF showing "something" but change over to the GFS and it is not closed low....looked at www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ early this AM not showing closed low....Now with a new model run GFS is starting to pick up the feature but 10 days out??? VERY UNRELIABLE..Something to watch...

Edited: 08/01/2019 at 07:22 AM by SurferMic

At ten days out the whole butterfly flapping it's wings thing comes into play.

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I was right.

Interesting...

'tis the season!

Erick and Flossie eyeing us up...hoping for more waves less wind.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Karma- you must be in Hawaii (?)



NHC is only giving that disturbance near Africa a 40% chance at 5 days out:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Edited: 07/30/2019 at 08:32 PM by paddleout

Take with a boulder of salt: ..... but that's a damn good surf scenario... solid Cat 2 in the ideal location

Edited: 07/31/2019 at 06:16 AM by Plan B

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Dora Hates You

The model shows it making that favorable turn/curve

Weekend swell event too, right before kids go back to school, yikes!

Edited: 07/31/2019 at 06:07 AM by seaspray

yes, but if it gets big enough, that takes care of the crowds

A weekend surf trip in da back yard doesn't get any better! Block party up and down AIA. I am guessing we haven't had a real ground swell since Turkey day weekend.

I just saw a Frigate Bird over Cocoa Beach. There might be something to this.

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I was right.

They are around Sebastian regularly!

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Romans 8;18-32 John 3;16-18

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

LOLA models getting excited with a 9ft @ 14s from ESE (114*) for Saturday 8/10 on north florida forecast. #LFG

Not over land in Cocoa Beach. I only see them around storms.



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I was right.

Paddleout - I forgot to tell you. I moved out here. Guess I brought the storms with me...though they have been having some close calls last couple of years. Call me some time. Still have the farm in PR too if you ever want to get down there.

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If you're not part of the solution, you're part of the precipitate.

Well that NHC 5-day graphic just went from 40% to over 60%.. looks likes she's comin..

PLANB- how/where on Levi's site are you getting that image you posted? I get lost on there..

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Dora Hates You

AS OF WED 7/31 @ 10:30 PM:



Edited: 07/31/2019 at 07:32 PM by paddleout

And starting this Sunday all the way through Saturday the 10th...
..... offshores predicted by Windy

















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Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

Some models went poof on development. NHC still on board at 70%

Yes, both major models went "Poof" but I'm expecting some readjustment with those, especially considering last night the GFS went batshit crazy and had a strong Cat 3 sitting just off the coast of St. Augustine for 4 days...... that's a radical swing in 6 hours, considering NHC bumped it's odds up to 70% Paddleout look through "lower dynamics"... with surface pressures. It's a great website, but yes, there's alot to sort through, and I'm not nerd enough to understand alot of them (I have art degrees... I skimped out on most math/science classes

Edited: 08/01/2019 at 05:20 AM by Plan B

and a barometric refresher cheat sheet for some:

Everywhere from cluster of light rain showers to a Cat 3. Something tells me weather is getting harder to predict.

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I was right.

Well..... it'll prob be all-time. I just seriously F-ed up my wrist, hitting the bottom clowning around on the LB. wouldnt be surprised if it's broke

DUDE!!!! no Bueno...

Turbil! I see the orthopedist on monday..... so in the meantime I'm not upset to say.... 96L is fizzling out. Down to 20% chance

Sat and Sun AM were super fun, thanks B!

Busted wrist..... Hoping cousin SAL brings some pizzas from Africa and floats around for awile....

2. A broad low pressure system located about 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only gradual development of
this system is expected for the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions could
become more supportive by Saturday and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend, several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Unlikely development NHC is on board with the models. Good news is we have the rest of the upcoming peak season still to come.

Yes, 96L has pretty much disappeared from the GFS run on tropicaltidbits... NHC 5-day still shows it as developing, so its a bit confusing right now.. we shall see

https://www.today.com/video/wa...ing-dozens-65064005793 ???

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

How do you say "Outside!" in Chinese?

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Dora Hates You

ow-sigh!!!!

Looks like a N/NE wind fetch is pointed our way in the coming days.

tropicaltidbits is at it again too.

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIIEEEE

Wave maker for OBX and Long Island..... but I don't like this for 99L, next up:

LOL, Tsunami at a wave pool? Might as well let some sharks go in as well. LOLiu

Well- no sign of anything on the GFS right now.. just poof- she's gone.

But NHC is still showing a 70% chance of it developing in 5 days so who knows whats right.

KARMA- how long have you been out there? Which island?

You need to post some PICS

Ya, the 8'oclock still gots 70%

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Dora Hates You

As per the 2AM:

Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by Tuesday and Wednesday as the system approaches the
Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.



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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/02/2019 at 04:05 AM by dingpatch

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

"The suppressed Kelvin wave that is shutting down convection over the Atlantic's main development region is predicted to bring an unfavorable environment for developing tropical cyclones. Expecting things could stay quiet until Aug 18, when another CC Kelvin wave moves in." Wunderground.com

Can you surf on Kelvin waves?

ONLY if you are a GATOR

Keep Kelvin surpressed!

and here I always called it SAL.... Who the hell is calvin? and does he make waves?

Is a speeling errar. They mean Calvin.

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

LOL.

virtual buoys shows a downward trend for the next

Wake me up when September ends. -green day

Hopefully this is a bit delayed:

Edited: 08/08/2019 at 09:01 AM by Plan B

I'm out for 6 weeks too.... NOAA UPDATE for '19 Cane season

That is called covering all the bases.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Well... the adjustment is based on the fizzling out of El Nino. I guess we'll see how long those effects take place.... I'm hoping not for 5 more weeks

Yo SAL....

Edited: 08/10/2019 at 06:27 AM by Plan B

btw.... Hurricane Charley was 15 years ago today. I remember going to Panama Hatties for a hurricane party and they had 5 gal buckets everywhere for the leaking roof. Surf the next morn was the weakest head high surf of all time as it raced NE

Edited: 08/13/2019 at 06:35 AM by Plan B

visible from space:

Anybody notice the upper level winds? Looked at a visible loop just now. Strong NE winds at the cirrus cloud altitude from here to Bermuda. Like a jet stream counter current.

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...

I think it's going to be a late start, and make up for lost time... like a hungry bear coming out of hibernation....... Hopefully wrong.... unless there's a bunch of storms just cruising around 600 miles offshore

When the big giant high pressure lifts a little north and quits suppressing the ITCZ so far south and the upper level winds relax a little, it could be like popping the cork on a shaken bottle of champagne.

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...

exactly. Hopefully it doesnt lift just north enough to create a blocking fast-track to the east coast

Edited: 08/16/2019 at 09:57 AM by Plan B

Windy.com is back at it again late next week.

fake news, 0/5

<--- licking his chops... (yeah for some activity). Football & Hurricane season swirling about and ready to start up. Luv this time of year. Summer Doldrums coming to an end....

*initiate hype sequence*

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sneedeker

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Dora Hates You

NHC has Dorian as a hurricane over Puerto Rico on wed/thurs but the GFS that Plan B posted above from Tropical Tidbits has now poofed the storm in its entirety- showing nothing by Tuesday or so.. kinda hope it stays that way- don't like the angle of that NHC cone..

Edited: 08/24/2019 at 07:01 PM by paddleout

agreed.... it has all the makings of a PIA... all headaches and no reward (surf). Although it looks like cousin SAL may interfere with its development. Lots of dry air surrounding it.

Btw...the one time I missed hurricane season due to injury was 2013.. (if you remember that year..... theres not much to remember ) I'm probably out of the water for 3 more weeks, so dont get excited until then...

The 11:00 o'clock NHC shows Dorian as a depression next Friday morning as it exits Dominican Republic/Haiti.

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Dora Hates You

I visit my folks in Virginia Beach on October 10th, so that's when the first big swells will hit the East Coast. Mark your calendars, and until then check the Crsurf.com website to plan a Costa Rica trip, where waves are consistent.

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http://www.crsurf.com ~ CR Surf Travel Company

http://www.vacationsbygreg.com
Instagram - @crsurf

Ha, yeah, I'll be out of town that weekend too.... looks like Dorian ate some wheaties last night:

need it to continue west long enough to get shredded by mountains of Hispaniola.....

The storm would have to shoot the gap between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Also, insulate itself greatly to fend off the dry air. I would be surprised if it makes the gauntlet.

Agreed.... but the low pressure off the coast could create enough weakness to draw it north enough...... and Florida hasnt been fairing very well in the tropical luck department the past 3 years

Edited: 08/26/2019 at 06:20 AM by Plan B

I'm half in a panic. Going out of town. Don't want to watch a storm from afar when I'm not around to prep the property. Models have a hard time with a compact storm that is all the way down at 12 degree north lat. That is way south of normal. Sea surface temps are nice and warm. Anybody notice that it hasn't been below 80F for several days? It was sweltering paddling on the lagoon in the dark this morning with a 5-10 north wind.

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...

Well, having a broken wrist and a house that got swamped by Matthew, (and prob wouldve got wet from Irma if it wasnt for my extensive prep) i'm not very excited about the prospects....

Hopefully the defense makes a solid tackle on this one:

Storm is going to get haymakered by wind shear.

NHC has changed their forecast a bit. NHC 11am discussion is interesting.

From latest NHC discussion:

"Given the unknown degree of interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5
is of very low confidence."

Kinda sounds like intensity could go either way, and its pointing right at us on the latest cone...

Looking better on the 5pm NHC cone.

They've got it tracking a bit more south as it approaches Florida. Also have it weakening a bit more.

From CFL Hurricane: "Currently the models favor Dorian on the very weak side (effectively just slightly more rain than usual) as it approaches Florida."



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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/26/2019 at 04:47 PM by dingpatch

BOHICA !

This is from CFL Hurricane:

Model summary tonight (18 or 12 z)

18Z GFS: Landfall in Central Hispaniola, weak TS. Then basically falls apart over the islands. Remnants do make it to the Central Bahamas, and start to recover on Saturday. Weak wave landfalls near Melbourne overnight Late Saturday/Early Sunday.

12Z Euro, skims or just east of the Dominican Republic on Thursday, Over Elutheria Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, Landfall near Melbourne, FL midday on Sunday TS. Then stalls out near Lake City, FL

18Z Legacy GFS skims the Eastern Side of the Dominican Republic on Thursday morning. Over Eluthera Island in the Bahamas late Friday night/Early Saturday as a Cat 2. Cat 2 landfall near Melbourne, FL on late Saturday night

12Z CMC moves over Hispaniola, Moves over Keys as a Strong Tropical Storm Sunday morning. Then Cat 2 landfall near LA/MS border on Wed Sep 4th.

18Z navgem moves over PR as a TS, then landfall Cat 2 Hurricane near West Palm Beach Sunday afternoon.

12Z ICON , skirts along N Coast of Cuba.

18Z HWRF decouples near PR, falls apart on Wednesday. Attempts to recover, ends run as a strong TS near the western Bahamas Saturday night.

18Z HMON Falls apart south of Puerto Rico, remains weak wave all the way to just south of Key West on Saturday night.

12Z UKMet landfall near Miami late Saturday afternoon as a Cat 2 hurricane.

Mixed, mostly weak. A lot depends on how Dorian does on Wednesday.

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Dora Hates You

FUUUGGGG

I had a bad feeling about this.

GFS on tropical tidbits is showing a little weak thing hitting us directly now. NHC is advising Floridians to "have their hurricane plan in place"

Thing is, they are still sketchy on the strength, so its quite possible we could get smacked with a hurricane on Saturday night.. obviously hope not, but don't let your guard down

These small diameter storms are hard to figure out as the they can spin up (or get torn up) so quickly. The computer models rarely nail these ones.

Thursday will be the day that Tells Our Tale! The model runs for us on Sunday go from just about nothing to a CAT 4/5!

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Dora Hates You

I'm going on if the long range models shows us hitting us 6 days away...it won't....

(knock on wood)

hoping it stays out to see and pumps swell and provides offshore winds

(praying to the surf gawds)

11 PM NHC cone updated- now a hurricane headed straight at Brevard..

NHC 5 a.m. discussion forecasting higher intensification then currently forecast through day 5 if models keep consistently trending toward a stronger storm.

New 5am update shows dorian as a CAT 2 coming at us.

Only upside is the path is shifted more north. After watching Tropical Tidbits last video, there is a chance Dorian could continue veering northward, possibly missing us.

http://www.wunderground.com/hu...rm-dorian?map=forecast

Ukmet is the winner on track so far. This time yesterday I think it was the only one going east of PR. Everything else was way off. Worst 24 hr forecast I have seen in awhile. But models built for forecasting big syatems in the mid latitudes are bound to have trouble with a tiny storm south of 20 degrees.

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...

From a weather watcher, , , , ,

"The models have not been handling this very well, Dorian has been tracking NE of predicted for awhile now. So much so it might go E of PR, which would be nearly 300 miles off target. Still has to get around the upper level low that is NW of its current position. In fact that low appears to be slowing its progress and keeping Dorian moving more N then W."

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Dora Hates You

Scombrid- where does UKMET put dorian in relation to Brevard?

The 11am update undid that last northward curve and upgraded Dorian to a major hurricane.

Weather underground's cone shows it as a CAT 3 landfall right on Brevard.

Im hoping for more curve, but after that last swing back down Im worried.

Upside is its not hitting until Sunday now, but Sat will likely be bad weather so get what you can done now.

Lowe's was full of people w plywood carts this morning at 1130am

Good god I hope the GFS is WRONG.... currently has it moving slow as F@$%@% once it hits the coast.

The 12zulu runs look much better for us. The 18zulu runs might be very telling.



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Dora Hates You

The NHC 5:00 is a little more south. The 18zulu runs should give us a much better view, , , ,

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Dora Hates You

that live link above from Ding will be a good one to watch

Maybe it'll pull a Floyd. If I remember correctly, everything showed disaster until the last minute, then it scooted up the gulf stream. That's what I'm hoping for.

Looking at the model that the TV has on every channel............Brevard Get Ready!!!

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________________

Well then...........DO IT!!!

The Floyd evacuation was insano. The waves were huge during Floyd.

When we evac'd St. A beach, I threw a 6-6 pintail in the truck. Got back right in time to get some right before dark as it passed.... used St. Auggie pier to make it outside... hopped over missing boards on the way to the end

Edited: 09/01/2019 at 07:59 AM by Plan B

Well...hoping for more "WRONG".... or I'll be pissed I took the storm prep all down



Edited: 09/09/2019 at 05:53 PM by 2nd Light Forums Moderator

11 days out?.........That model run has already DYNAMICALLY changed.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Exactly !!



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Puerto Rico 11 - 24 - 2013

20% chance of development.

It will be a Cat 7 by tomorrow.

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I was right.

Hahahahh

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

My "Storm Prep" is still up, and will remain Up. Probably going to put Christmas decorations on the shutters.

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Dora Hates You

Get the sharpie!!! (oops sorry!)

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Latest "revised" update from NOAA in DC:

Woo hoo!

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

That is FUNNY!

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

~ trof ~ ))))))!

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ola ~

Did you get da buh's permission to use this?

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Dora Hates You

Of course..... I just posted it as something to keep an eye on... anything past 3 days is usually just a crapshoot......

I would say at this point, if the NE/ offshore tracking trend continues- and with those insane winds near the eye.. that yes.. the surf should be enormous!


That model run above is finally showing the beast offshore thank god

Edited: 08/31/2019 at 05:44 AM by paddleout