Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
520 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the broad trough
of low pressure extending across Florida and the adjacent Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico waters.

1. Widespread showers and thunderstorms extending across Florida, the
Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters are
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level disturbance. Although a weak surface low could form
along the surface trough just off the east coast of Florida and
move northward toward Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday and
Wednesday, the low is not expected to become a tropical cyclone due
to strong upper-level winds.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of southern and central Florida tonight,
spreading northward to coastal sections of northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and the Carolinas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty winds
could also produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coasts of eastern Florida, Georgia,
and the Carolinas through Wednesday. For additional information,
see products from your local National Weather Service office. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 AM EDT Tuesday, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Random lows jumping up weekly.

What happens when the air temps reach 100 and the ocean hits 90?

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I was right.

bombogenesis

Tropical Storm Bertha Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Unfortunately forecast to move inland and not out to sea.

Wow. Two named storms in May. That is unusual. GW?

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

This stuff was predicted to happen 20 years ago. Back then it was called Global Warming.

..and people weren't afraid to say it.



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I was right.

Edited: 05/27/2020 at 06:40 AM by Cole

If you check the gardening forum I noticed our typical dry season of April/May started earlier this year. Now it seems we are in the mid-june wet season.

It is an interesting Wx phenomenon.

But, then again, we haven't figured out what the 'new normal' will be yet!

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released its predictions for the 2020 season Thursday, with a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 10 could become hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricanes. In an average season, we typically see around 12 named storms, six of them become hurricanes, and three reach major hurricane status which puts them in a category three, four, or five-level with winds of 111 mph or higher. One of the main factors going into forecasts calling for an above-average season is the potential development of a La Nina. This is opposite of an El Nino and is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters while the Atlantic and Caribbean sea surface temperatures run warmer than average. A La Nina also aides in lowering vertical wind shear (a changing of wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere) over the Atlantic basin, allowing storms to breathe without being cut off at the top. Another potential factor will be an enhanced West African monsoon season and lower amounts of dust in the atmosphere coming off the continent. It should be noted, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is calling for an average to slightly above average season ahead. They are basing their forecast off a weaker La Nina development and sea surface temperatures that won't climb quite as high as other groups are forecasting.

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Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

Bertha...really, padding the numbers again....20 years ago they were more strict on naming storms, now what was a simple low gets named...same with naming winter storms...The driving force behind this....wait for it....Insurance Companies

Edited: 05/27/2020 at 08:49 AM by SurferMic

Can't be the mid-June season in May. We had epic surf which NEVER happens in June!



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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

#3?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic.

1. A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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I was right.

Max winds surpassed 35mph with a closed circulation. Hasn't that always been the criteria?

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Did the circulation actual close completely with rain bands completely around the Eye? Maybe I missed it on an early radar loop...

Swell up here in St. AUG, clearly switched from the NE this morn...

At least it appears #3 will have the courtesy to wait until the official start of hurricane season to form.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

That would be something else if we get 3 named storms before June 1! The new normal!

Tharrr she blows

Looks like it will fall apart on Sunday.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Or it will stop, turn south, dance a little jig, then move north south east west.

They have no clue anymore.

We are all dead. lol



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I was right.

.

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ola ~

Edited: 05/30/2020 at 03:06 AM by equipeola

closing up? wind

"The 12Z European ensemble has more members into the NW Gulf and stronger as well. Nothing set in concrete, but odds are increasing with each run that we may see a Gulf system next week. #tropics #Cristobal?"


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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Falling apart.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

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Dora Hates You

daner

?

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

different system.... the one he was referencing is toast

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with
the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center,
with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center.
Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in
the central convective features, along with an increase in
convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which
previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports
from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt
exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The
same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb.

The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery
indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt.
There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land
interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion
should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this
afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone
inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next
day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good
agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on
the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge
over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical
storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By
72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the
southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly
steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4
over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are
in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with
only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift
out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the
consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning
before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening
is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after
landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far
inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain
relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the
rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones.
But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and
GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker
and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND