If you look at any of the swell models Sunday/Monday standout as a great increase in sea and wind. Looks like a low pressure may form off the coast.

Saturday-Tuesday...Model guidance continues to trend toward slightly
better agreement in handling the SW flank of the departing trough,
which is now forecast to pinch off into a closed low offshore the SE
coast, and continue to drift SE as is become trapped beneath a
strong ridge building to its north. While the GFS is slightly
farther east with the low aloft, differences at the surface have
become fairly minimal. A strong high pressure ridge builds over the
eastern CONUS/western Atlantic, which produces a strong surge of NE
to ENE winds spreading south/inland from the Atlantic into Florida
this weekend. This will produce breezy to windy conditions along
with unsettled (showery) weather for this weekend, especially along
the coast, with conditions slowly easing early next week.

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...An area of high pressure is building into the
western Atlantic today, which has already caused our local winds to
veer south and increase to 10-15 knots. Winds become southeast along
the immediate coast after the sea breeze develops early afternoon,
with gusts up to 20 knots possible. The increase in winds and swells
builds seas to 4-5 feet nearshore, and up to 6 feet offshore. Small
craft should exercise caution today. These poor boating conditions
into tonight as conditions improve towards sunrise Wednesday.

Wednesday into this weekend...Moderate SE-S flow Wed will increase
as it veers SW ahead of the approaching cold front, which passes
through Thu night/early Fri morning. Seas will generally remain in
the 3-4ft range near shore and 5-6ft offshore through Thu night,
then decrease Fri-Sat.

While we generally don`t discuss marine conditions beyond the 5-day
forecast period, feel that it`s prudent to do so this morning...

By late Sat a significant surge of onshore/NE-E winds will commence
over the outer Volusia Co. waters, then spread south and inland
through the weekend. This is due to a combination of a strong high
pressure ridge building over the mid Atlantic States and western
Atlantic, while a weak low pressure trough forms near SEFL and the
Bahamas. Current model guidance is coming into much better agreement
that near gale conditions will develop over the local waters this
weekend, with seas and surf building to dangerously high levels for
boating and beach interests (i.e. 10-15ft seas and breaking waves of
7ft or higher) Sat night through Monday.

Tuesday update, NWS Melbourne:

By late Sat a significant surge of onshore/NE-E winds will commence
over the outer Volusia Co. waters, then spread south and inland
through the weekend. This is due to a combination of a strong high
pressure ridge building over the mid Atlantic States and western
Atlantic, while a weak low pressure trough forms near SEFL and the
Bahamas. Current model guidance is coming into much better agreement
that near gale conditions will develop over the local waters this
weekend, with seas and surf building to dangerously high levels for
boating and beach interests (i.e. 10-15ft seas and breaking waves of
7ft or higher) Sat night through Monday.

Hot damn. Wind even looks right.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Windy shows the wind and wind waves moving into NE Fla on Saturday, then things getting interesting and swell developing into Wednesday. By the end of the event, goodies for Miami Beach?

Looks like wind mess north of the Cape and some better opportunities southward

NNW at 20 plus when the swell hits.

Light west all day Friday; swell, one foot.

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I was right.

virtual buoys dropped the size down some in today's model runs. But, still show sizeable stuff Sunday/Monday.

NWS Melb saying low pressure off coast late weekend, timing and position variable. Thus, we wait and let the real weather figure it out!

Regardless, keep an eye on it. Maybe some fun stuff with local winds favorable. I don't really trust weather models this far out, but gotta look at something.

The new one shows almost no swell at all. 2 to 3, maybe.

From 10 to 15 feet, to waist high?

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I was right.

Edited: 03/17/2021 at 02:34 PM by Cole

I know i'm chasing long range model forecast, but look at that possible low pressure form near Bermuda on Wed/24th. Interesting if that happens. I remember a swell from a storm in March a long time ago that provided a week long long period swell. Something to watch. We need some bigger swell around here! Sunday/Monday, still showing weak low off the coast. Hatteras marine forecast calling for Gale force North to NE winds for Friday/Saturday.

434 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

SYNOPSIS
The Atlantic ridge axis over south Florida this
morning will retreat eastward this afternoon ahead of a cold
front, as winds veer to southwest and increase. The front will
cross the local waters late tonight into early Friday morning
accompanied by scattered showers and a few storms.

Strengthening northeast to north winds and building seas will
occur this weekend between a strong high pressure ridge over the
eastern U.S. and a developing low pressure area offshore the
Florida east coast. This will bring hazardous boating conditions
to the local waters this weekend.

Synopsis for Eastern North Carolina coastal waters

Strong low pressure will pass to the north later today and
tonight pushing a cold front through Friday. High pressure will
build south over the area this weekend into early next week
while low pressure slowly churns off of the southeast coast.

Latest thinking by NWS Melbourne:

Saturday-Sunday... A strong high pressure ridge is forecast to build
southward along the SE Atlantic coast this weekend, as an area of
low pressure takes shape east of Florida. Where the low forms will
have a significant impact on how tight the local pressure gradient
will get. For now, going closer with the ECM model, with wind speeds
near 20 KT in the Volusia near and offshore waters, and 10-15kt from
Brevard southward. Seas this weekend will build to 6-9ft by late
Saturday night, and 6-8 ft in the nearshore and 9-11ft in the
offshore waters Sunday.

Model guidance continues to be erratic with the strength and the
position of low, thus winds/seas/surf could be a little lower or
higher. Nevertheless, deteriorating conditions are very likely this
weekend.

Next Week... Wind and sea conditions will still remain hazardous at
the beginning of the work week, but will slowly improve starting
Monday. Seas will decrease to 6-9ft by Monday evening and further
decrease to 5-7ft in the offshore waters by Tuesday afternoon. Winds
will be NE around 15-18kt through the first half of the work week.

I feel like I am checking Surfline, Magic' seaweed and every other source by the minute. Btw, yesterday was waist to chest high clean surf with favorable wind until 11. Had a blast.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

You n me both; I have a 11am T Time Sunday at Cocoa Bch Country Club that I may need to cancel!!

sunday looking interesting !

Very interesting. I've been watching Sunday's forecast the last couple days and everything but MSW said unfavorable N winds Sunday for surfing so I was not optimistic. Then MSW fell in line with all the other wind forecasts last night and also predicted blasting winds from the N for Sunday. But this morning MSW is calling for light NW for most of the day and weather.com is also predicting NW wind but a bit stronger. Still not optimistic after all the swell we got in 2020 with crap winds though.

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Heavy is sign of reliability

Stuart looks like the epicenter.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

I've been complaining about lack of camera opportunities.

I think this thing went kaput.. Glad I kept the T Time!

Surfline pulled the plug. Others, not.

by others we presume you mean surf.hypetrain.org?

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

ho-pro charged up

a reason to carb load!

good to see the waters off Hatteras get churned up!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...phic=-73.96,33.02,2747

~40mph NE winds off of Hatteras. If that don't bring swell...

Saturday-Tuesday...The position of the developing surface low center
offshore will keep the stronger ENE/NE wind surge between the it and
the high to its north aimed at the SE seaboard, well to the N-NE of
ECFL. However, a brief increase in north winds to around 18-23kt is
progged to reach the Volusia Co. waters as well as nearshore Brevard
Sat-Sat night. Additionally a building NE swell will push seas up to
6-8ft in this area late Sat and 7-10ft Sat night through Sun night,
primarily for the northern and offshore waters. SCA will very likely
be needed for most if not all of the waters through Mon. Seas will
gradually decrease to 5-6ft by Tue, mainly in a continued swell.

South FL might be getting the goods.

-------------------------
I was right.

Ya know SoFla is licking their chops...probably last chance of winter swell for them for a very long time.

At least we aren't shadowed by the bahamas as much. Feast or famine down there... just checked a few cams, looks flat for now.



Edited: 03/19/2021 at 09:20 AM by Central Floridave

Diamond shoals off hatty:

Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 44.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 12.1 ft
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NNE ( 32 deg true )

NNE ( 32 deg true )

That's a swell arrow pointed right past us here in Brevard. lol

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I was right.

According to this great circle map, 32 degrees is in CB swell window

http://stormsurf.com/gc/gcgif/east/cb_zoom.gif

...as we sit and wait, and wait, and wait...we can debate swell windows!

Magic seaweed saying sunday 5 to 6 feet with 11 seconds. Local wind N to NW at 10mph in the morning. Low at 7:17am. Hoping for some good waves sunday morning!



Edited: 03/19/2021 at 01:02 PM by Central Floridave

Haaaaard north angle swell from 32 degrees !? I'm so stoked cause.. 'I'D RATHER GO LEFT!' lol

(hoping for goofy footers delight!)




-------------------------
SK8 AND DESTROY

fuckin THIS...

Coral cove looks to be the epicenter. West wind all day. That's the spot to travel down to cole. Plenty of wide open surf breaks and easy parking.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Windy's swell prognostications are no doubt mechanical (they do cooperate with Magic Seaweed) but they update fast and have good European data. And they're just not in the surf forecasting business. But they make it easy to compare down the coast and results are reasonably similar to Surfline. Looks really good for Coral Cove southward to Juno and a bit spottily northward. To judge from recent history, I would suspect forecasts of Indian River and St. Lucie being almost as good as those more southerly locations. If nothing else, we have a lot more shallow nearshore water.

oh man, I caught such a classic swell near there one year. burned into brain so hard I think it will survive most of the brain fade when it comes.

I go to Ventusky for wind, looks really good as of now for Sunday. but other sites have it light NNW as least in the AM.,
I know Johhnyboy loves Coral Cove but I may be searching for a bit smaller size with my youngest, he has yet to get a full pounding of N swell energy, but perhaps it is time, young grasshopper

-------------------------
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who do not have it." - George Bernard Shaw

Saturday, 2pm, check out this graphic. Low right off canaveral.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...phic=-74.43,30.56,5249

SYNOPSIS
A broad area of low pressure will develop between
south Florida and the northwest Bahamas today and lift toward the
north and northeast through early next week. A NE swell generated
by strong winds between the low and a strong ridge of high
pressure to its north will build over the local waters this
weekend through Monday. This will bring another period of
hazardous boating conditions to the local waters this weekend and
lasting into early next week.

The wind in about 30 knots outside my window right now. Mel Beach should have some good sandbars from the new Patrick sand in the next few days.

We are looking at WNW at 10 here in Cocoa Beach tomorrow. I'm going to walk to surf, but thanks for the info JohnnyB.

-------------------------
I was right.

Edited: 03/20/2021 at 05:19 PM by Cole

North of us, Daytona-Jax was chilly and windy this evening. I was along I-95.

Fairly calm, nw, chilly for the dog walk this AM, melbeach.

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Looks like it could be really good with a slightly shorter period producing some peaks for a change. Get on it.

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"If I say it's safe to surf this beach, captain, then it's safe to surf this beach!"

Chilly indeed. Come on sunshine. Checked a few cams. drift going south. looks around 4-6 feet. NW winds. good size on the buoys. low tide was an hour ago'ish. Hope the sun comes out eventually.

Cocoa Beach is glassy, chest to head plus on sets and I watched one empty wave go for 100 yards. Breakfast and then surf.

-------------------------
I was right.

Low still spinning off of Georgia!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...phic=-77.35,32.64,5524

Moderate northeast swells will continue to propagate
into the local Atlantic waters today and produce hazardous
conditions near inlets. A broad area of low pressure just off the
Florida northeast coast will gradually weaken through Tuesday. The
Atlantic ridge axis will rebuild westward across the area mid
week.

TODAY
West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 feet with a dominant period 10 seconds. A
light chop on the intracoastal waters.

Looks a lot like yesterday, only a lil smaller. Still plenty of swell

I actually left my hood to surf today. Was a lot of fun in Mel Beach.

Yesterday (Sunday) was one for the record books for sure. Some relentless sets drove me to the beach 3x. Angle was perfect for the lefts to really open up.

That low moved out to sea a little more and still spinning! virtual buoys have it dropping in size but IDK. Look at this thing spin:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...phic=-76.05,31.29,6868

FYI. The Canaveral buoys jumped up in size this Monday afternoon.

9 feet 12 seconds on 20 mile buoy now!

The low off the SE coast has gotten weaker, but still spinning. also, the low near Bermuda that was predicted came true. But, it looks too weak for anything significant.


https://earth.nullschool.net/#...332/loc=-76.739,32.792