2nd Light Forums |
Topic Title: Gulf system next week Topic Summary: Created On: 05/25/2022 07:13 AM |
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch |
- Lunchmeat | - 05/25/2022 07:13 AM |
- Kimo63 | - 05/25/2022 06:25 PM |
- StirfryMcflurry | - 05/26/2022 03:37 AM |
- Lunchmeat | - 05/26/2022 06:02 AM |
- Kimo63 | - 05/26/2022 06:50 PM |
- Central Floridave | - 05/27/2022 07:39 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 05/27/2022 11:04 AM |
- Kimo63 | - 05/27/2022 08:24 PM |
- jdbman | - 05/28/2022 05:56 AM |
- ww | - 05/29/2022 02:07 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 05/29/2022 11:04 AM |
- jdbman | - 05/30/2022 05:40 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 05/31/2022 06:08 PM |
- ww | - 05/31/2022 09:29 PM |
Topic Tools
|
05/25/2022 07:13 AM
|
|
Models are hinting at a system forming in the BOC and drifting NE into the middle of the Gulf next week. Caught Anna Marie good last summer, would love a repeat.
------------------------- If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden |
|
|
|
05/25/2022 06:25 PM
|
|
Models have been all over the place , the latest GFS has a storm slotting the Fl Straits June 4th . So , probably something is going to pop but where and when.
|
|
|
|
05/26/2022 03:37 AM
|
|
a wise CFLDave once said..."Always big and great surf in the long range forecast!"
|
|
|
|
05/26/2022 06:02 AM
|
|
I'm hungry and will stay glued to the models. Like Kimo said models are still showing weak storm going over keys then strengthening some off our coast as it moves slowly NE. at least theres hope!
------------------------- If it’s legal will do it, if it’s not legal, we’ll figure out how to change the law-Joe Biden |
|
|
|
05/26/2022 06:50 PM
|
|
The GFS is our friend at the moment , it has a couple Storms sliding out south of the state going NE . Might get lucky after that with some return swell . Fingers crossed . Next week Wed through the weekend 6/4 are the days to watch
|
|
|
|
05/27/2022 07:39 AM
|
|
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 27 2022 ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from 27N87W to 25N90W. Another trough prevails over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 21N between 92W-96W. Surface ridging is building across the basin, with scatterometer data depicting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue building across the basin, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevailing over the area through the weekend. Fresh southerly winds will develop across the NW waters by early next week due to a pressure gradient building in the area. |
|
|
|
05/27/2022 11:04 AM
|
|
NWS-Melbourne discussion from last night.
Sun-Fri...Adequate moisture lingers over the area thru the extended as deepening onshore flow takes over Sun night/early Mon lasting well into the period. Still some continued uncertainty with medium range models as the GFS remains hell-bent on developing a weak tropical low well east of the central FL coast Wed night/Thu and a stronger system over the FL Straits on Fri. For now, expect sea breeze collisions across the central peninsula late Sun, then with a deepening - more stable onshore flow, a higher threat for convection at night and in the morning across the coast and an increasing threat over the interior (WC FL) in the afternoon and early evening periods. We keep the highest PoPs (50-60pct) south of Orlando once again on Sun, then a 30-50pct average areawide the remainder of the upcoming work-week, though at some point PoPs may have to be better aligned showing highest chances inland once the models show some better consistency. Also, the models do show some weak troughiness aloft across the central peninsula near mid-week that could enhance daily convection. |
|
|
|
05/27/2022 08:24 PM
|
|
I'm hell-bent on following these two possible spinners . Could be a long spell after these all wash out
|
|
|
|
05/28/2022 05:56 AM
|
|
"Saturday AM Tropical Update. Leftover Pacific Agatha looking like something to watch next week as it heads NE in the Gulf." Mike
------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. |
|
|
|
05/29/2022 02:07 AM
|
|
Agatha looks bad for Oaxaca state. Charities are collecting money already.
|
|
|
|
05/29/2022 11:04 AM
|
|
For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will change
little over the western Atlantic through the next few days. A weak trough is expected to form near the NW and central Bahamas by mid-week, then possibly develop into weak low pressure while it lifts northeastward Thu and Thu night. Winds will pulse moderate to fresh north of Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas through early week. Gentle to moderate winds will continue over the remainder of the region through early week. |
|
|
|
05/30/2022 05:40 AM
|
|
"Monday AM Tropical Update. NHC bumping up Gulf spot to watch to 40%. General thinking so far is a sloppy sheared system towards Florida and/or the Bahamas this weekend. Lots of incoming juice possible... some storms too." Mike
------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. |
|
|
|
05/31/2022 06:08 PM
|
|
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue May 31 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disturbed weather has developed near the Yucatan Peninsula, partially related to the remnants of Agatha interacting with an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this marginal environment, this system is likely to become a tropical depression by Friday as it moves northeastward across the Yucatan Peninsula, the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. |
|
|
|
05/31/2022 09:29 PM
|
|
European and GFS have differences but both seem to be going for a big, diffuse storm with moderate SE wind on our coast. Tomorrow evening's forecasts might be interesting.
|
|
|
FORUMS
:
Surfing
:
Gulf system next week
|
Topic Tools
|
FuseTalk Basic Edition - © 1999-2024 FuseTalk Inc. All rights reserved.
First there was Air Jordan .