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Topic Title: Looks like a big cold front-hurricane wind field over the weekend
Topic Summary: BTW, American has a flight sale to Hawai'i other than Oahu. Jan.
Created On: 10/21/2025 06:21 AM
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 10/21/2025 06:21 AM
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Wavewatcher

Posts: 7999
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

NHC expects the Caribbean disturbance to develop; it's likely to cross Hispaniola then head NE.

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again
 10/21/2025 07:00 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 53048
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

virtual buoys balloons up for next week!
 10/21/2025 09:14 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 53048
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of
Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.
The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
island.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Border with Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba
should monitor the progress of Melissa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical
Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.7
West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and
north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track,
Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti
and Jamaica later this week.

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is expected during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin
in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday.

RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the
Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through
Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but
uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa
reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash
flooding and mudslides are possible.

Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible
across Puerto Rico through at least Friday.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to
Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of
days. Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 10/21/2025 09:16 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 53048
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Satellite images, regional Caribbean radar data, and surface
observations indicate that invest 98L has developed a well-defined
center and organized deep convection to be designated a tropical
cyclone. A ship report that recently passed near the center of the
system reported a minimum pressure of about 1003 mb. Satellite
imagery shows the system is asymmetric, with the low-level center
near the western edge of the central dense overcast. The initial
intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite
intensity estimates, marking the formation of Tropical Storm
Melissa. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, and their data should provide
a better assessment of Melissa's strength and structure.

The system was moving very quickly westward over the past several
days, but it has slowed down significantly this morning, which has
likely helped Melissa form. The initial motion is estimated to be
280/12 kt. Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn
to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days
toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion will likely
take the storm very near the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica
by Thursday. After that time, the guidance diverges significantly
with some models like the GFS and HWRF showing a motion to the
northeast into the weakness, while the other solutions show a stall
or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge. An
examination of the GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble suites
suggest that the majority of the members show Melissa not moving
into the weakness and remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the
week and into the weekend. The NHC official track forecast lies
between the Google DeepMind ensemble mean track and the correct
consensus aid, HCCA.

Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the
Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be
moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the
next few days. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening
trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the
future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is
quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm
is also quite uncertain. The NHC intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the HCCA model.

Key Messages:

1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of
significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend.

2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast and
Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued
for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed by Thursday.

3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity
forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
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