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Topic Title: Looks like a big cold front-hurricane wind field over the weekend Topic Summary: BTW, American has a flight sale to Hawai'i other than Oahu. Jan. Created On: 10/21/2025 06:21 AM |
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NHC expects the Caribbean disturbance to develop; it's likely to cross Hispaniola then head NE.
------------------------- wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again |
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virtual buoys balloons up for next week!
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Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 ...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 71.7W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince. The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Border with Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 71.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest and north is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach the southwestern portion of Haiti and Jamaica later this week. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti beginning on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could begin in Jamaica on Thursday or Friday. RAINFALL: Melissa will bring heavy rainfall to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with totals of 5 to 10 inches expected through Friday. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Friday, but uncertainty regarding the track and forward speed of Melissa reduces confidence in exact amounts. Areas of significant flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Over Aruba, Puerto Rico and Jamaica rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected through Friday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across Puerto Rico through at least Friday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to spread to Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. |
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Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025 Satellite images, regional Caribbean radar data, and surface observations indicate that invest 98L has developed a well-defined center and organized deep convection to be designated a tropical cyclone. A ship report that recently passed near the center of the system reported a minimum pressure of about 1003 mb. Satellite imagery shows the system is asymmetric, with the low-level center near the western edge of the central dense overcast. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, marking the formation of Tropical Storm Melissa. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, and their data should provide a better assessment of Melissa's strength and structure. The system was moving very quickly westward over the past several days, but it has slowed down significantly this morning, which has likely helped Melissa form. The initial motion is estimated to be 280/12 kt. Melissa should continue to slow down and gradually turn to the northwest and then north during the next couple of days toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge. This motion will likely take the storm very near the southwestern tip of Haiti and Jamaica by Thursday. After that time, the guidance diverges significantly with some models like the GFS and HWRF showing a motion to the northeast into the weakness, while the other solutions show a stall or a westward drift on the south side of a building ridge. An examination of the GFS, ECMWF, and Google DeepMind ensemble suites suggest that the majority of the members show Melissa not moving into the weakness and remaining in the Caribbean Sea throughout the week and into the weekend. The NHC official track forecast lies between the Google DeepMind ensemble mean track and the correct consensus aid, HCCA. Melissa is expected to be over the very warm waters of the Caribbean, but the models suggest that vertical wind shear will be moderate with some dry air in the vicinity of the storm during the next few days. Based on these mixed signals, the strengthening trend is expected to be slow and steady, not rapid. However, the future intensity of Melissa is linked to the track and since that is quite uncertain beyond a couple of days, the strength of the storm is also quite uncertain. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the HCCA model. Key Messages: 1. Melissa is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of significant flash flooding and the danger of landslides to portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through the weekend. 2. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the southern coast and Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by Thursday. 3. There is significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and Cuba should continue to monitor the latest forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 14.3N 71.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.4N 72.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.8N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.3N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 15.7N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 16.1N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 16.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 16.9N 74.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci |
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Looks like a big cold front-hurricane wind field o...
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