Wed 11pm update


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.7N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 20.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 22.4N 68.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 24.2N 69.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 26.5N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 27.7N 77.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 28.6N 80.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

28.6N 80.3W is right off of Cape Canaveral early Monday.

Someone tell the models to recurve this thing again!

Come ON 12Zulu updates....RECURVE RECURVE RECURVE....

f()ck NHC but more importantly, f()ck current a$$hole in charge for cutting funding. these people really have no clue regarding forecasting. they measure data real time and give it to you, that's about it. i dont need to tell most of you but going from tropical storm to major hurricane in under twelve hours is hard to accept...prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

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sneedeker

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 09:01 AM by harrietdubman

Maybe Home Depot gave NHC some money to up the forecast!

Sales were slow with just a cat 1 forecast. Cat 3 gets people attentions better. Could be true. NHC just sent out a tweet to prepare now.

Tropical-storm-force winds from #Dorian could begin in parts of Florida *as early as* Saturday or Saturday night. Now is the time to begin thinking about what kinds of preparations you might need to make over the next couple of days. https://t.co/f5cqCroirU pic.twitter.com/mIGTVR6SUG

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 28, 2019

http://twitter.com/NHC_Atlanti...us/1166744443417849857

Latest update has it hitting FL as a Major Hurricane

Waves should be good though

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Brevard Surf Report

Lol I was thinking the same!

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Time and tide wait for no one.....

Cat 2 (or 3) beeline right for us, Friday and Saturday gonna be yuuuuge

Surf some before you take care of your home and family

I'm still certain this thing will make some last minute turn

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 10:24 AM by seaspray

The surf and wind will be crap- always is.

Latest GFS and Euro runs have SFL and then Panhandle getting hammered by a major.
Seems the more likely track, based on climatology.
Crap

A 1:59 note from a weather analyst: (I've added some Emphasis)

"I just spent a half hour looking at the western ATL sat loops which presented the picture of the complex situation ahead of Doreen. . ..There is a weak ULL feature to its NW and it is being influenced by the flow around that feature. Ahead of that feature is a NW-SE flow which then becomes westerly over the FL Straits. The ULL is not strong and its influence on Doreen seems to be lessening. If so the NW track currently being seen should become more WNW..fairly soon.
In the CONUS: NW of Florida a trough is pushing SE-E toward exiting CONUS probably in a day or two. By then Doreen should be in the lower Bahamas where a more traditional SE-NW flow should be evident.. A generally easterly flow seems to be following across the ATL behind all this. And if it becomes more of an influence it could be the cause for Doreen to take a more westerly path.
I think this complex situation will begin to be come more clear by tomorrow."

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 12:14 PM by dingpatch

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Dora Hates You

Since the name of the storm is DORIAN and not DOREEN, I woulnt hold that analyst's input in the highest regard: p

PLAN B speaking of tape, try that NO RESIDUE duct tape by 3M (I think)

its like a dark silver color- a little bit more expensive but strong as hell AND a breeze to remive with no mess

they have it at lowes and i think even publix

Ummmm, , , , , ahhhhh, , , , , am I missing something? Tape? What is tape going to do for you in at CAT 4?

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Dora Hates You

Hopefully keep out the 15" of water I got in my house from Matthew I'm ok with total destruction of my house...... I DONT want to go through gutting all the insides and rebuilding it myself again!!!....... just spent $100 on "flood mediation" supplies at HD.

Edited: 08/28/2019 at 01:35 PM by Plan B

I get it!! Good luck, if comes to the point that you, me, we need it!!!

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Dora Hates You

Can someone merge these threads? in the meantime.... REALLY BAD:

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

Soon after the previous advisory was issued, Dorian appeared to
have a bit of a hiccup in its structure. A dry slot was noted
penetrating into the southeastern portion of the circulation, with
the eye becoming cloud- and rain-filled. In fact, dropsonde data
from the Air Force Reserve mission indicated that the central
pressure had come back up a bit to around 991 mb. That being said,
the plane still measured maximum SFMR winds between 70-75 kt, so the
initial intensity is being held steady at 75 kt for this advisory.

Dorian continues northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.
Confidence in the track forecast is fairly high for the first 48
hours, with Dorian expected to continue moving northwestward and
then begin to turn west-northwestward between mid-level ridging to
the north and a mid- to upper-level low retrograding westward
across the Straits of Florida. The models, and their ensembles,
continue to diverge after 48 hours and have not really budged from
their respective solutions compared to yesterday. The GFS
is a northern outlier from the rest of the guidance, showing a
weaker ridge and bringing Dorian close to the Florida/Georgia
border, while the UKMET and ECMWF models show stronger ridges
and remain the southernmost solutions near South Florida. Given the
spread in the guidance, the new NHC forecast blends the previous
forecast with the simple multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA and
Florida State Superensemble aids, and it actually ends up in a
position very close to the tightly clustered global model ensemble
means. The most notable change in the new forecast is that it's a
little bit slower than the previous one as Dorian approaches
Florida.

Various shear analyses are indicating 10-15 kt of southwesterly
shear over Dorian at the moment, but the global models show this
shear diminishing within 12-24 hours. With lower shear and very
warm waters, all of the intensity models forecast Dorian to begin
strengthening again soon, and rapid intensification could occur.
The updated NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the
previous one and most closely follows the HCCA and Florida State
Superensemble aids during the first day or two. After 48 hours, the
official forecast is near or just above the intensity consensus, but
it's still lower than the solutions shown by the HCCA, Florida State
Superensemble, and the HWRF. Dorian is likely to reach major
hurricane strength in the next day or two and is forecast to
maintain that status until it reaches land.


Key Messages:

1. The risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later
this week and this weekend continues to increase in the central and
northwestern Bahamas and along the Florida east coast, although it
is too soon to determine where these hazards will occur. Residents
in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place
and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian's center.

2. Heavy rains are expected to occur over portions of the Bahamas,
Florida, and elsewhere in the southeastern United States later this
week and into early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 20.5N 66.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 21.9N 67.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 23.7N 69.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 25.1N 70.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 26.0N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 27.0N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 27.5N 79.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND