11 PM NHC update... UGH
Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
tag-teaming the reconaissance of Dorian tonight, providing useful
information about what has changed during the past several hours.
They found the pressure has dropped to about 977 mb, with recent
SFMR data of about 90 kt (also supported by flight-level winds).
These data are also consistent with satellite imagery that show
Dorian with a larger, deeper central dense overcast than this
afternoon. Thus the wind speed is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.

The initial motion is about the same as before, 325/10 kt. Dorian
is expected to gradually turn to the west-northwest on Saturday,
and westward on Sunday due to a building ridge over the southwestern
Atlantic. While the model guidance generally shows this scenario in
a broad sense, there are substantial timing differences among the
guidance. The source of the uncertainty can be attributed to
challenges in forecasting the strength and orientation of the
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States in a few days,
along with exactly where and how large Dorian is by then. As you
can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder
the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path
of the hurricane. There's been a notable trend on this model cycle
toward a slower, more westward track beyond 36 hours, which can be
seen most strongly in the GFS-based guidance. The track forecast is
shifted southward beyond 36 hours, and is about 30 n mi south of the
previous one at 96 h. We will see if this southward trend in the
models continues after the dropsonde data collected by the G-IV gets
incorporated into the 00Z models. Users are reminded to not focus
on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4
and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.

There is still substantial middle- and upper-level dry air on the
south side of the hurricane, as shown by tonight's G-IV mission,
which has been allowing only slow strengthening during the day.
As Dorian turns west-northwestward, however, shear should drop
somewhat due to it moving on the northeast side of an upper-level
low near the Florida Straits, and the winds aloft will no longer be
pointed toward the core, which will help decrease dry air
entrainment. All these changes should promote intensification
while Dorian moves over the 29C waters east of Florida, so the
intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, consistent with
the corrected-consensus guidance.

Unfortunately, I don't see any
large-scale factors that would prevent Dorian from becoming an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane during the next few days.

Edited: 08/29/2019 at 08:32 PM by paddleout

^^ no problem Greg, always take before and after pics....I have some go pro footage of the actual reef(s) from a few weeks ago as well...maybe a while until it gets clear/clam enough to free dive again and see the "blocks"...The reefs actually looked real good, lots of growth...I "think" we will only see sustained winds around 90 mph ...hope so ...

So, , , , it can be said that "it is what it is", , , , but there is still too much uncertainty in its track. Most of the models are in pretty close agreement into Freeport but, from there it gets sketchy. The UKMet takes it acroos and into the gulf. BUT, BUT, BUT, , , , most of all the rest still takes it up the middle of the state as a CAT 1 or 2. That part might not seem that bad but, this thing is expected to be just crawling. How good is your property prepared for 24 hours of Cat 1 or 2? 24 hours for it to get from Palm Beack to Orlando????!!!!

And still, just as the models have brought it more southerly, there is a very good possibility that they could soon also take it more easterly! This is no joke. We could have a CAT 4 or 5 hit the sand at Miami and then turn north straight up the coast!!! EVERYBODY from Miami to Jacksonville might get a taste of a CAT 4 or 5!!!! IF it does come up the coastline the beachside areas, and most others out past 95 around here will never be the same.

Tommorow is shutter day. My Ready Bag is almost complete. Most "current" scenarios tell me that I will probably head towards Ft. Myers or Tallahassee. No ideal solution yet.

I'm guessing that even by Saturday afternoon they still won't have a good grip on the track.

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