Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this to others who don't understand... It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics. Seasonal flu is an "all human virus". The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot. Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it's a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn't human, and the human immune system doesn't recognize it so, we can't fight it off. Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it's only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it's gonna be.. H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It's RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too. Fast forward. Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, "slippery" This Coronavirus, not being in any form a "human" virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, Humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it. And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.. That's why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it's a lung eater...And, it's already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine. We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu. Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation... And let me end by saying....right now it's hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next. #flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on. ??

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ola ~

Edited: 03/19/2020 at 06:55 AM by equipeola

The above post is why I suggest people only read CDC reports and stay off the scare mongering, conspiracy sites.

IMO closing beaches is over reaction but I've distracted enough from this post only because my statements were questioned. But I'll go over to NPR if I want to get into this type of arguing. NOT.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Edited: 03/19/2020 at 07:04 AM by daner

daneR: from 3/19 "Closed beaches post" Another recent study, considered the largest on COVID-19 cases to date, researchers from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Protection, analyzed 44,672 confirmed cases in China between Dec. 31, 2019 and Feb. 11, 2020. Of those cases, 80.9% (or 36,160 cases) were considered mild, 13.8% (6,168 cases) severe and 4.7% (2,087) critical. "Critical cases were those that exhibited respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure," the researchers wrote in the paper published in China CDC Weekly. ok---I'm a little confused

Edited: 03/22/2020 at 06:41 PM by Bev

equipeola.....
Very good read, thank you!!

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Well then...........DO IT!!!

Another CDC cited study from China:
"In concert with recent studies,1,8,12 we found that the clinical characteristics of Covid-19 mimic those of SARS-CoV. Fever and cough were the dominant symptoms and gastrointestinal symptoms were uncommon, which suggests a difference in viral tropism as compared with SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and seasonal influenza.22,23 The absence of fever in Covid-19 is more frequent than in SARS-CoV (1%) and MERS-CoV infection (2%),20 so afebrile patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focuses on fever detection.14 Lymphocytopenia was common and, in some cases, severe, a finding that was consistent with the results of two recent reports.1,12 We found a lower case fatality rate (1.4%) than the rate that was recently reportedly,1,12 probably because of the difference in sample sizes and case inclusion criteria. Our findings were more similar to the national official statistics, which showed a rate of death of 3.2% among 51,857 cases of Covid-19 as of February 16, 2020.11,24 Since patients who were mildly ill and who did not seek medical attention were not included in our study, the case fatality rate in a real-world scenario might be even lower. Early isolation, early diagnosis, and early management might have collectively contributed to the reduction in mortality in Guangdong."

As the number of cases increase, statistics will become more meaningful. But in general, the percent of severe cases should go down since many people with very mild cases have not been included since they are not reported as often.

BTW. I happen to be acquainted with one of the first people in IRC to have been confirmed COVid 19 and heard from her today. She first noticed being ill on 3/10. She has had a mild fever and felt tired but feels better today. She is in her 80s and has a compromised health situation. She is bored of being home. Only a case of one, but encouraging.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Edited: 03/23/2020 at 07:54 AM by daner

I am not a big fan of Donald Trump but this is the reality IMO.

"WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!"

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

This isn't that difficult - there are only x amount of beds/ventilators available in our health system. And only a certain number of doctors to handle it all. The point is to keep the numbers under the capacity of the system which will ensure a low mortality rate. Why is this so hard to understand?


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QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

Because practicing good hygiene, staying home when sick, and perhaps offering off-site testing and medicine for people who are not very sick can accomplish that. Stuff we should practice every flu season.



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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Yes - but we are prepared for flu season. We are unprepared for this - which is much more serious than the flu. Covid-19 puts far more people in the hospital than the flu does. Thus Covid-19 needs to be limited. There is simply a finite amount of equipment/beds. Again. this is pretty simple.

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QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

It boggles the mind! I don't say this to be mean. Everyone of substance on the subject "in the WORLD" is 'Wrong', and daner is,,, right. At what point sir do you even for the credibility and safety to those closest to you, step off and change direction with the verbiage of; ie: I change my mind with the education I've now received (or some such statement), now, How can I help?! I sincerely hope your employer, employees, or those you may count on for your living do not see your lack of understanding of what's happening around you, as they may very well reconsider your ability to execute common sense dynamic, to a point they feel doing business or anything with you, beyond their risk tolerance. We're not seeing those here who in the past spoke highly of you in the water, the planning of sessions, and just general brother like tomfukery, standing by your conclusions and ideas of going forward to help -- sorry to see it. The flu has many treatments and cures making it managable to society where this thing has "NO" treatment, no cure, is 10x (arguably) the mortality rate of the Flu, making it a possible out of control situation if not handled with intelligence. DeSantis for example too came out minutes ago stating: Anyone now here i Florida having traveled to/from the New York vicinity are required to self quarantine ALONE for 14 days. We'll start seeing people rat'n folks out- Fair?! + or -

Edited: 03/24/2020 at 01:04 PM by Bev

This is the problem: 20-30% of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic. So you have a lot of people who feel fine but can spread it around to everyone else unless the areas where people congregate are shut down. The other problem is that 10% of covid-19 patients require hospitalization (of which a good portion can survive, if given proper treatment), versus 1-1.5% of flu patients. So you have clusters of people getting sick within a short period of time and very limited medical resources (ie, ventilators) to treat them all. Plus many medical staff are becoming ill too.

NO thing is simple. especially here. havn't u grokked that , yet? daner? over to you...good luck bro.

I agree with this statement by Trump: "WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF. AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!"




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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

But most everyone who has the flu is also without symptoms for a period. As with the flu you can only get the coronavirus by having someone cough or sneeze close enough for you to inhale the aerosol or by touching something a symptomatic or asymptomatic person has contaminated and then putting your contaminated hand in your mouth, nose or eys. Hence, sick people stay home, stay away from sick people and practice good hygiene and you can avoid this.



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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Edited: 03/24/2020 at 02:06 PM by daner

The purpose of closing the country down and to stop people from gathering has nothing to do with a virus. it is to stop the deep state criminals like $0R0s from staging any false flag mass shootings or creating any staged Riots. Arrest's have already started in saudi Arabia and are happening all over the world. Trump is using the Fake Virus scare against them to run the central bank into the ground. He plans to take the dollar off of the Petol standard and put it back on the gold standard. he plan's to take the dollar out of control of the private central Bank/ Federal reserve.... There are only two ways to be now: You are either helping Trump take the United states back or you are helping the globalists destroy it....Don't bother going down to walmart to buy ammunition. They are completely sold out except .20 gauge and 30.06.


Edited: 03/25/2020 at 06:37 AM by surfthecoochie

LMFAO, thx man, needed that...


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QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

Another surfing post soon headed to NSR

daner, on the low end of the scale sars-cov-2 is 4x more infectious and 10x deadlier than the flu responsible for the last pandemic, h1n1. that is the low end of the scale from the world health organization. never in our lifetime has a flu completely overwhelmed the health care systems of cities and even entire countries. in fact, you would have to go all the way back to the 1919 spanish flu pandemic to find one that did. the virus can be spread by completely asymptomatic people, days before symptoms appear on people, days after symptoms go away from people, and survive outside a host longer than any flu in our lifetime. yeah it shares symptoms of the flu, but the flu generally doesnt cause sudden and severe acute respiratory syndrome. the world health org made a huge mistake not calling this sars2 instead of covid-19. the fear they wanted to avoid in the asian community by doing so would be well warranted in the world as a whole now

Hey Daner when is the 15 days up? Don't you want to leave this up so people can see the psychos they may be surfing with?





Edited: 03/26/2020 at 12:52 PM by Greensleeves

RiddleMe:
Flu statistics are based on millions of cases over the years (32 million this year alone). In contrast to Covid where statistics are very skewed towards the high end because it's early days, the low number of cases and the fact that many cases are so mild they are not reported. This may be worse than the flu, but it may not be THAT different after good stats are available. All I have been saying is it is not a monster, it does not warrant shutting down of the world- AND SO THIS DOESN'T GO TO NSR- shutting down our beaches.

From the New England Journal of Medicine.
On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

NYTimes Article
Each person with the coronavirus appears to infect 2.2 other people, on average. But the figure is skewed by the fact that the epidemic was not managed well in the beginning, and infections soared in Wuhan and the surrounding province. As an epidemic comes under control, the reproduction number, as it's called, will fall.

By comparison, the figure for the seasonal flu is roughly 1.3. The reproduction number for the flu of 1918 was about the same as that of the new coronavirus, perhaps higher, but that was before modern treatments and vaccines were available.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

Edited: 03/26/2020 at 01:17 PM by daner