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Topic Title: RonJons closing, Beaches next??
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Created On: 03/16/2020 03:43 PM
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 03/26/2020 01:18 PM
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ww

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    There are real problems with modeling the new coronavirus because it's new. Germany and perhaps Sweden seem to have done well at limiting deaths, and Sweden even seems to be doing it without a complete shutdown. The US got started too late to have an easy time. I think we're in for long shutdowns and/or lots of deaths. Universal is actually selling day tickets as early as April 20. If they open that soon, they'll be setting up a lot of new infections unless they strictly limit how many guests they allow per day, make sure everyone is 6' apart (like Target's X marks on the floor) and do a lot of other stuff that isn't fun.
    We have to at least partially restart the economy before the epidemic is entirely over, which might take as long as 2 years. But it's best not to try to restart while there's a high rate of transmission. It's not as if we're simply having an additional new strain of flu.
    Thinking of those mini boards, Encyclopedia of Surfing just had a very retro video on plump surfers, including Greg Noll. Different world.


Edited: 03/26/2020 at 01:20 PM by ww
 03/26/2020 01:38 PM
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daner

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Actually it MAY be very similar to a strain of flu.
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2

The point is we don't know that for sure and we are stopping the world in our FEAR of something that has captured the imagination of people.


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 03/26/2020 01:50 PM
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RiddleMe

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i am going to side with the epidemiologists from all over the world instead of some random dude in a surfing forum on the internet
 03/26/2020 01:54 PM
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daner

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Originally posted by: RiddleMe

i am going to side with the epidemiologists from all over the world instead of some random dude in a surfing forum on the internet


I don't think The New England Journal of Medicine publishes articles by random surfing dudes.

From the New England Journal of Medicine.
On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2




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 03/26/2020 07:37 PM
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Glassy Peelerz

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Concentrating on the fatality rate totally misses the point about the difference in HOSPITALIZATION RATES, which is ten times higher with Covid-19. That's what is overwhelming some hospitals already.
 03/27/2020 05:44 AM
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RiddleMe

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again daner, when was the last time the flu completely overwhelmed health care systems and hospitals. when was the last time the flu so overly overwhelmed facilities that professionals are forced to triage patients like a mass casualty situation, deciding who they might be able to save and who is going to be left to die. 1919 was the last time the flu did that. look i get your mind wont be changed until you are on a ventilator yourself or someone you love is, but really this is not the flu
 03/27/2020 06:02 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Originally posted by: daner I don't think The New England Journal of Medicine publishes articles by random surfing dudes.
think again. random surfer dudes in the health care field get published every week, bro. or they perish. continue,

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 03/27/2020 06:03 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Originally posted by: RiddleMe but really this is not the flu
& just what are you callin it , riddla?

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 03/27/2020 06:17 AM
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RiddleMe

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i am calling it exactly what it is. a highly infectious virus that is going to kill a lot of people and cause long term lung damage in many many more
A recent analysis from the University of Pennsylvania estimated that even if social-distancing measures can reduce infection rates by 95 percent, 960,000 Americans will still need intensive care. There are only about 180,000 ventilators in the U.S. and, more pertinently, only enough respiratory therapists and critical-care staff to safely look after 100,000 ventilated patients.


Edited: 03/27/2020 at 06:26 AM by RiddleMe
 03/27/2020 06:45 AM
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daner

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First, I want to clarify, I never said Covid was not something to take seriously. It should be taken as seriously as the flu. The real problem is we do not take the flu seriously. People don't practice good hygiene during flu season, they go to work sick and don't take it seriously. Now we have a more virulent, but similar viral disease and people are all of a sudden doing the things they should have been doing to not get the flu. These are good practices and hopefully people will continue them in the future.

What I have said is the closures of beaches, stores, restaurants, schools and causing a panic mode of hording and fear is an over the top reaction because of the unknown. Restricting air travel, shutting down concerts and large gatherings even beach spring break parties is probably wise ( and probably things we should do for the flu)- but the other extreme which this thread is about shutting down beach parking in lots where the beach is sparsely populated?

Originally posted by: Glassy Peelerz

Concentrating on the fatality rate totally misses the point about the difference in HOSPITALIZATION RATES, which is ten times higher with Covid-19. That's what is overwhelming some hospitals already.


There have been 32 million cases of flu in the US, hospitalization rate is 1% which 320,000 people going to the hospital since October. There have been 55,000 cases of Covid, hospitalization rate is 10% That is 5,500. And your saying that is overwhelming the facilties when we handle the flu hospitalizations. Doesn't make sense to me.



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Edited: 03/27/2020 at 06:51 AM by daner
 03/27/2020 06:50 AM
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Bev

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Originally posted by: StirfryMcflurry
Originally posted by: RiddleMe but really this is not the flu
& just what are you callin it , riddla?
Dude-- Are we to assume 'you', actually call this simply the 'Flu'? There is no treatment. Flu ?! wtf, day after day after day, you are being educated that beaucoup people are dying from this many many more times the modern day flu is with modern treatment, but here they are,, still blabbin' nonsense how this ain't shit. Unbelievable- People are start'n to get pissed off on the irresponsible- btw, moderators, don't move this please, it's primarily about "Surf", see, just said it. Thanks
 03/27/2020 06:52 AM
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RiddleMe

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daner, sorry it doesnt make sense to you, but that isnt going to change the fact that it is happening bro. facts: this is more infectious than the flu, deadlier than the flu, and has a higher rate of intensive care patients than the flu. patients that would otherwise die without ventilation. those are undeniable facts. may not make sense to you. may never make sense to you. it makes sense to the entire rest of the world because we all know it is has far more potential than any flu since 1919. surely you have to understand that we are at the start of a pandemic right?

Edited: 03/27/2020 at 06:53 AM by RiddleMe
 03/27/2020 06:55 AM
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daner

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Bev- You keep talking about a cure for the flu. There is no cure. Vaccines are not a cure. Vaccines are preventative measures that are about 50% effective. There are some antiviral drugs but they don't really do much. You get the flu, you stay in bed and take tylenol and power through it maybe get some antibiotics at the end to prevent bacterial infection, but that should work in the case of COVid too). If there was a cure it wouldn't kill 10's of thousands every year. You're talking nonsense here.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean



Edited: 03/27/2020 at 07:13 AM by daner
 03/27/2020 07:39 AM
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garcia

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The reason beaches are being closed in Brevard County is because we were one of the only ones still open. With 1) all the surrounding counties having closed theirs, 2) all the New Yorkers flying and RVing to Florida to escape their shutdown (was 26 flights from NY per day 2 weeks ago, and 216 yesterday; Palm Shores mayor reporting to us yesterday that their RV park is overwhelmed with NY plates and having huge parties and who knows how many Typhoid Marys among them), 3) all the normal spring breakers 4) everybody looking for something to do and 5) the Orlando weathermen telling all the viewers that it will be a great weekend for the beach, we were looking at a tsunami of beachgoers. We had to shut them down or else face a potentially explosion of transmittals.
 03/27/2020 07:54 AM
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daner

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As far as I know, beaches are not closed in IRC. Only beach access lots. If memory is correct Brevard was the first to close its beach access lots in this area and now are closing the beaches as well. Of course, now IRC will consider that. SIASD

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean



Edited: 03/27/2020 at 07:56 AM by daner
 03/27/2020 09:23 AM
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Bev

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Originally posted by: daner Bev- You keep talking about a cure for the flu. There is no cure. Vaccines are not a cure. Vaccines are preventative measures that are about 50% effective. There are some antiviral drugs but they don't really do much. You get the flu, you stay in bed and take tylenol and power through it maybe get some antibiotics at the end to prevent bacterial infection, but that should work in the case of COVid too). If there was a cure it wouldn't kill 10's of thousands every year. You're talking nonsense here.
daner. Sincerely I wish to communicate with you on this with a level of respect. I apologize if at times it does not appear so. It is not my intent. That being said, your comprehension of what you're reading is convoluted man. Being lazy I'm not gonna go back and search if I stated that the flu has a cure, I'm pretty darn sure I didn't because that would be asinine nonsense, and I ain't do'in that. The disappointment continues to grow when again til this thing brought the best of us out here(smh), you come up with this verbiage up there that are actually 'my' prior posted statements, with you trying to take them as your own and use them in a way contrary to my debate with you on this thing. For all to read and see man YOU lose all credibility trying to twist another's words to fit your agenda. Bottom line pal- We fight the Flu and beat death 99.9% of the time, we haven't yet found a way to fight this thing outside what sacrifices being required of us all temporarily, and expect at this moment to win only about 97% of the time. If you can't find the courage to come on board the direction the world is going with this, get outta the way man so your actions don't have a negative affect on those I love and respect. You're a bright guy, I'm sure you understand the dynamics of how that would come about.
 03/27/2020 10:01 AM
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Quadro

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So is Ron Jon's closed? I need a new Gath helmet for tomorrow's sick pits.
 03/27/2020 10:48 AM
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daner

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Yep nonsense from your previous post: "The flu has many treatments and cures making it managable to society where this thing has "NO" treatment, no cure, is 10x (arguably) the mortality rate of the Flu,"

Please respect my opinion based on not being lazy and doing some research. Even though may not be the majority opinion it does not make it wrong.

The President of the US said "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease". That is simply what I am trying to get across. I'm not in anybody's way.




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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean



Edited: 03/27/2020 at 10:53 AM by daner
 03/27/2020 01:47 PM
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Bev

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Originally posted by: daner Yep nonsense from your previous post: "The flu has many treatments and cures making it managable to society where this thing has "NO" treatment, no cure, is 10x (arguably) the mortality rate of the Flu," Please respect my opinion based on not being lazy and doing some research. Even though may not be the majority opinion it does not make it wrong. The President of the US said "we can't let the cure be worse than the disease". That is simply what I am trying to get across. I'm not in anybody's way.
Ahh ya. No excuse for that error. I think I was a tad bit crazy with your willingness to putting others at risk, and put that in that sentence. So I'll respect your not being lazy and research effort and, that you agree yours is not "the majority opinion", so I get your comment however, Yes, it 'still' makes it wrong for the reasons I mentioned before regarding putting others at risk wherever you may go.
 03/29/2020 02:13 PM
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Bev

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Originally posted by: daner It's a variation on the flu. Get over it!
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u...ejNWuTTcSkDBYb3zxIpDzT
FORUMS : Surfing : RonJons closing, Beaches next??

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