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Topic Title: First storm of the season?
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Created On: 05/12/2020 06:07 PM
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 05/12/2020 06:07 PM
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dingpatch

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First tropical storm of hurricane season may develop near Florida, Bahamas by this weekend
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
USA TODAYMay 12, 2020, 3:06 PM EDT

Weeks ahead of schedule, the hurricane season's first tropical system could develop near Florida and the Bahamas this weekend, forecasters said Tuesday.

As of midday Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center said there was a 50% chance of development within the next five days. "An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend a couple hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas," the hurricane center said.

The official start to the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is June 1, although storms often form before that date, as they have in each of the past five years. The peak of the season is usually in September.

If the system gets a name, it would be Tropical (or Subtropical) Storm Arthur. Subtropical storms are those that have characteristics of both tropical and non-tropical weather systems.

Storms get a name when their winds reach 39 mph.

According to AccuWeather, the center of the system and most of its rain should stay east of the U.S. mainland, but there will be some impact from it reaching the beaches of the U.S. and perhaps more significant impact on the islands offshore.

Showers and thunderstorms may also occur over part of South Florida late this week as the system gets organized, AccuWeather said.

Although the system isn't likely to directly affect the U.S., the developing storm "is certainly a good reminder that hurricane season is around the corner and that preparation is necessary," wrote University of Georgia meteorologist Marshall Shepherd in Forbes.

Most hurricane forecasters are calling for an unusually active 2020 hurricane season. Top forecasters from Colorado State University said last month that 16 named tropical storms are expected to form, eight of which could become hurricanes.

An average season has 12 tropical storms, six of which are hurricanes.

Reasons for the expected active season include unusually warm seawater in the Atlantic Ocean and also the lack of an El NiƱo, which tends to suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Federal forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue their prediction for the 2020 season next week, the agency announced Tuesday.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane season: Tropical Storm Arthur may hit near Florida, Bahamas

Edited: 05/12/2020 at 06:10 PM by dingpatch
 05/12/2020 06:37 PM
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Cole

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We have a new generator, a new wall AC and the number of a good realtor to GTFO of Cocoa Beach if we take repeated beatings this year.

I am soooo over hurricanes.
 05/13/2020 07:53 AM
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johnnyboy

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Me and the hen joked about adding a hurricane to the virus woes. Knocked on wood as fast as I could.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 05/13/2020 12:39 PM
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dingpatch

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Cole,

Yes count me in the "over it" catagory. Been going through the shit since 1954. It really "started" the time we stayed beach side in South Patrick Shores during Donna! M F ER.

Edited: 05/13/2020 at 12:55 PM by dingpatch
 05/13/2020 12:55 PM
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dingpatch

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed May 13 2020

Corrected to remove double labels

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the
Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend near or within a couple of hundred miles
north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or
storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward
over the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Latto
 05/13/2020 04:52 PM
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dingpatch

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 05/15/2020 05:33 PM
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jdbman

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5/15. 832 pm


Invest #90L hugging the south Florida coast has not gotten better organized in the last 24h. Dry air entrainment & shear has kept convection from coalescing around the not yet closed off vortmax.

Shear decreases in the next 24h, allowing an opportunity for further development.

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So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.
 05/15/2020 08:30 PM
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surferclimber

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Looks like light ( ish ) wind predicted locally for sat AM so might be a window for good surf... Then looks like it just moves away NE direction so not really gonna push much other swell our way

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

 05/16/2020 06:14 AM
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Cole

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It's blowing it's ass off in Cocoa Beach right now and I can hear the roar from four blocks away. Plenty of surf and plenty of wind.
 05/16/2020 06:23 AM
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LostSherpa

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Aaandd... its gone

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The Dude Abides.


http://www.rollerphotography.com/

 05/16/2020 06:24 AM
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LostSherpa

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-------------------------

The Dude Abides.


http://www.rollerphotography.com/

 05/16/2020 07:25 AM
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scombrid

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Low is centered right on the coast a bit south of us now. Wind is light NE in Ft. Pierce and light west about Jensen.

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...

 05/16/2020 08:17 AM
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Cole

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A nice soaking rain in CB right now and the wind has backed off, but it will take a pretty solid offshore to clean it up.
 05/16/2020 10:15 AM
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Cole

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Tightening rotation and a burst of storms offshore, it's looking like the west winds will be in Cocoa Beach after dark. Florida, I freakin love it!
 05/16/2020 11:47 AM
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daner

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Best conditions in FL are around midnight. You can count on it!

Inlet got kinda fun around late morning midday.

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Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean



Edited: 05/16/2020 at 11:59 AM by daner
 05/16/2020 12:00 PM
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dingpatch

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 05/16/2020 12:03 PM
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scombrid

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Well defined closed circulation on radar and visible satellite. Offshore winds still teasing us.

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...

 05/16/2020 01:11 PM
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Cole

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Originally posted by: daner

Best conditions in FL are around midnight. You can count on it!



Inlet got kinda fun around late morning midday.


We now have a trough you could drive a submarine through and no one would see it.

 05/16/2020 02:57 PM
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dingpatch

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"One" is the loneliest number, , , , , ,
 05/16/2020 04:09 PM
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Cole

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It looks like it is dropping to the south. The west winds were over Palm Beach, now they are toward Miami? Cocoa Beach has a straight north wind.
FORUMS : Surfing : First storm of the season?

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