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Topic Title: Special Tropical Weather Outlook
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Created On: 05/26/2020 05:38 AM
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 05/26/2020 05:38 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
520 PM EDT Mon May 25 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the broad trough
of low pressure extending across Florida and the adjacent Atlantic
and Gulf of Mexico waters.

1. Widespread showers and thunderstorms extending across Florida, the
Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters are
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level disturbance. Although a weak surface low could form
along the surface trough just off the east coast of Florida and
move northward toward Georgia and South Carolina on Tuesday and
Wednesday, the low is not expected to become a tropical cyclone due
to strong upper-level winds.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of southern and central Florida tonight,
spreading northward to coastal sections of northeastern Florida,
Georgia, and the Carolinas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Gusty winds
could also produce rough marine conditions and life-threatening
surf and rip currents along the coasts of eastern Florida, Georgia,
and the Carolinas through Wednesday. For additional information,
see products from your local National Weather Service office. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 9 AM EDT Tuesday, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 05/26/2020 07:38 AM
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Cole

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Random lows jumping up weekly.

What happens when the air temps reach 100 and the ocean hits 90?
 05/26/2020 07:53 AM
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RiddleMe

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bombogenesis
 05/27/2020 06:17 AM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Storm Bertha Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020
830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 05/27/2020 06:22 AM
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Central Floridave

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Unfortunately forecast to move inland and not out to sea.
 05/27/2020 06:25 AM
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daner

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Wow. Two named storms in May. That is unusual. GW?

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 05/27/2020 06:40 AM
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Cole

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This stuff was predicted to happen 20 years ago. Back then it was called Global Warming.

..and people weren't afraid to say it.



Edited: 05/27/2020 at 06:40 AM by Cole
 05/27/2020 07:09 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

If you check the gardening forum I noticed our typical dry season of April/May started earlier this year. Now it seems we are in the mid-june wet season.

It is an interesting Wx phenomenon.

But, then again, we haven't figured out what the 'new normal' will be yet!
 05/27/2020 08:20 AM
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scostuart

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Joined Forum: 12/28/2007

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center released its predictions for the 2020 season Thursday, with a 60 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season. The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 10 could become hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricanes. In an average season, we typically see around 12 named storms, six of them become hurricanes, and three reach major hurricane status which puts them in a category three, four, or five-level with winds of 111 mph or higher. One of the main factors going into forecasts calling for an above-average season is the potential development of a La Nina. This is opposite of an El Nino and is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters while the Atlantic and Caribbean sea surface temperatures run warmer than average. A La Nina also aides in lowering vertical wind shear (a changing of wind direction and speed with height in the atmosphere) over the Atlantic basin, allowing storms to breathe without being cut off at the top. Another potential factor will be an enhanced West African monsoon season and lower amounts of dust in the atmosphere coming off the continent. It should be noted, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is calling for an average to slightly above average season ahead. They are basing their forecast off a weaker La Nina development and sea surface temperatures that won't climb quite as high as other groups are forecasting.

-------------------------

Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

 05/27/2020 08:49 AM
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SurferMic

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Bertha...really, padding the numbers again....20 years ago they were more strict on naming storms, now what was a simple low gets named...same with naming winter storms...The driving force behind this....wait for it....Insurance Companies

Edited: 05/27/2020 at 08:49 AM by SurferMic
 05/27/2020 10:12 AM
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daner

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Max winds surpassed 35mph with a closed circulation. Hasn't that always been the criteria?

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 05/27/2020 10:41 AM
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SurferMic

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Did the circulation actual close completely with rain bands completely around the Eye? Maybe I missed it on an early radar loop...
 05/27/2020 10:58 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: SurferMic Did the circulation actual close completely with rain bands completely around the Eye? Maybe I missed it on an early radar loop...
Swell up here in St. AUG, clearly switched from the NE this morn...
 05/29/2020 07:40 AM
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daner

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Joined Forum: 04/20/2004

Originally posted by: Central Floridave

If you check the gardening forum I noticed our typical dry season of April/May started earlier this year. Now it seems we are in the mid-june wet season.



It is an interesting Wx phenomenon.



But, then again, we haven't figured out what the 'new normal' will be yet!


Can't be the mid-June season in May. We had epic surf which NEVER happens in June!



-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 05/29/2020 07:49 AM
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Cole

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#3?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
900 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic.

1. A broad area of low pressure appears to be developing over the
central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. This disturbance is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms and gusty winds. Additional development of this
system is possible, and a subtropical depression could form tonight
or on Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not
expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 05/29/2020 08:20 AM
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daner

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At least it appears #3 will have the courtesy to wait until the official start of hurricane season to form.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 05/29/2020 08:45 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

That would be something else if we get 3 named storms before June 1! The new normal!
 05/29/2020 10:47 AM
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Plan B

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 05/29/2020 12:53 PM
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daner

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Joined Forum: 04/20/2004

Looks like it will fall apart on Sunday.

-------------------------
Replace turf grass with native plants that don't need irrigation and synthetic fertilizers or chemicals that can go into our waterways and ocean

 05/29/2020 03:14 PM
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Cole

Posts: 44807
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Originally posted by: daner

Looks like it will fall apart on Sunday.


Or it will stop, turn south, dance a little jig, then move north south east west.

They have no clue anymore.

We are all dead. lol

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