Hang 10... or as they now say...hit the lip!

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Created On: 06/01/2020 07:29 AM
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 06/01/2020 07:29 AM
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SurferMic

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Edited: 06/04/2020 at 11:04 AM by SurferMic
 06/01/2020 10:05 AM
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Plan B

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I dont think the direction will bode very well..... unless it blows up fast in the BOC, but even then.... swell may get beaten by the Missippi delta... but what do I know

Edited: 06/01/2020 at 10:18 AM by Plan B
 06/01/2020 12:03 PM
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Plan B

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well.... GFS is pretty bullish (as usual) and has a much favorable fetch direction. EURO (who often does better with tropical systems) has it further west with not ideal direction (and not as strong).... we 'll see
 06/01/2020 02:43 PM
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SurferMic

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Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:33 PM by SurferMic
 06/01/2020 05:36 PM
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Cole

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That Beach Street is pretty damn fun.

But then again, so is chunky chop and there is no driving involved.
 06/01/2020 06:16 PM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020

Recent satellite data and surface observations from Mexico show
that the circulation associated with the area of disturbed weather
over the Yucatan peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and that the center has moved over the eastern
portion of the Bay of Campeche. Although the deep convection has
waned somewhat, there is evidence of banding in both visible
satellite imagery and recent radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico.
Based on these data, advisories are being issued on a tropical
depression. The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which is in
agreement with earlier ASCAT data.

The depression will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of
Campeche and upper-level winds are forecast to be generally
conducive for strengthening during the next couple of days. The NHC
forecast is in line with much of the intensity guidance and calls
for the system to become a tropical storm in 12 to 24 hours, with
some additional strengthening predicted through 48 hours while the
system remains over the southern Bay of Campeche. After that time,
the system's intensity will depend on how much it interacts with
land. Although the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models
take the cyclone inland over southern Mexico, the NHC forecast
keeps it just offshore and shows the cyclone maintaining tropical
storm strength. Later in the period, the guidance suggests that
the system could strengthen over the south-central Gulf of Mexico,
but the latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low
confidence.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. The system
has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains
embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward,
and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of
days. On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the
southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and
confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high. After
that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over
the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the
ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models
show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico
from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre.
The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving
into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors
the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs
later this week. The latter portion of both the track and intensity
forecast are of quite low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of
southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could
cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to
products from your local weather office for more information.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.6N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.8N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.2N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.8N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.0N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
 06/01/2020 06:18 PM
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Central Floridave

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 06/02/2020 05:47 AM
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SurferMic

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Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic
 06/03/2020 05:38 AM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Cristobal has continued to get better organized this morning with
the development of a small CDO feature over the low-level center,
with cloud tops of -82C to -86C developing very near the center.
Radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico, also has shown an improvement in
the central convective features, along with an increase in
convective banding on the west side of the circulation, which
previously had been devoid of any significant convection. Reports
from nearby Mexican observations indicate that winds of 47-48 kt
exist west of the center, which supports an intensity of 50 kt. The
same observations support a minimum pressure of 994 mb.

The aforementioned surface observation data and radar imagery
indicate that Cristobal is now moving southeastward or 140/03 kt.
There could be some erratic motion this morning due to land
interaction with the inner-core wind field, but the general motion
should remain southeastward toward the coast of Mexico. By this
afternoon, a turn toward the east is expected, driving the cyclone
inland over southeastern Mexico where it could meander for the next
day or two. By 48 hours, the global and regional models are in good
agreement on the development of a long fetch of southerly flow on
the east side of Cristobal between the cyclone's center and a ridge
over the Bahamas and Hispaniola, which will act to lift the tropical
storm slowly northward toward the south-central Gulf of Mexico. By
72 hours and beyond, mid-latitude ridging amplifies over the
southeastern U.S. and the Bahamas, which will increase the southerly
steering flow, causing Cristobal to accelerate northward on day 4
over the central Gulf, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on day 5 near the south-central U.S. Gulf coast. The models are
in very good agreement on this overall developing scenario, with
only timing differences on when and how fast the cyclone will lift
out away from Mexico. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of the
consensus models TVCN and NOAA-HCCA.

Some additional slight strengthening remains possible this morning
before Cristobal moves inland over southeastern Mexico. Weakening
is likely this afternoon and tonight while the circulation after
landfall. The intensity forecast leans heavily on just how far
inland Cristobal moves. For now, the cyclone is expected to remain
relatively close to the warm Gulf waters, which should temper the
rate of weakening typically experienced by inland tropical cyclones.
But if Cristobal moves as far inland as Guatemala like the ECMWF and
GFS models are forecasting, the cyclone would be considerably weaker
and the wind field more expansive on days 3-5. The official
intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous advisory,
and closely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of
Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect.

3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast
from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to
determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.9N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.5N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 18.3N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 19.3N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 05/1800Z 20.5N 90.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 26.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 29.8N 91.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
 06/03/2020 06:25 AM
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RocketSurf

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Edited: 06/04/2020 at 07:22 AM by RocketSurf
 06/03/2020 07:05 AM
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SurferMic

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Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic
 06/03/2020 02:15 PM
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RocketSurf

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Edited: 06/04/2020 at 07:23 AM by RocketSurf
 06/03/2020 02:29 PM
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johnnyboy

Posts: 16544
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I was looking at clearwater's forecast for Sunday. 9' at 11 seconds with 30mph wind side shore. What will that translate to?

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 06/03/2020 03:40 PM
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Plan B

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Current forecast = no go for Plan B
 06/03/2020 05:01 PM
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SurferMic

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Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic
 06/03/2020 05:38 PM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: SurferMic just need 14 to 16 foot on the buoys... winds? ...so many nooks and crannies, inlets, cuts,groins beach direction ..but not looking too good..going to check out front to see what's happening out front on our side for Am sess.
Ive done that goose chase enough..... of course everything can change, but ATM doesnt look to be strong enough or slow enough to be worth it. swell gets shadowed by yucatan.... then shows up when the wind does. Some parks close and give the boot.... I did score the one benefit of Katrina (and Wilma) though.....
 06/03/2020 06:17 PM
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SurferMic

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. Radio Silence..

Edited: 06/03/2020 at 06:32 PM by SurferMic
 06/04/2020 05:56 AM
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Cole

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This crap weather over Florida should be turning into another low any day now.

Well...a tropical low, obviously it's already some kind of low considering the rain.

Edited: 06/04/2020 at 05:57 AM by Cole
 06/04/2020 05:58 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 2583
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Originally posted by: SurferMic . Radio Silence..
Tracks slows..... Silence commences.... hmmm.....
 06/04/2020 06:57 AM
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weldertom2

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Joined Forum: 04/14/2005

Small and clean in South Padre Island this morning. Great forecast......... will be rocking late weekend in to next week.............legit

www.spadre.com
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