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Topic Title: Tropics strangely quiet now
Topic Summary:
Created On: 09/25/2020 11:47 AM
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - sw - 09/25/2020 11:47 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Central Floridave - 09/25/2020 01:13 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Cole - 09/25/2020 07:14 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - sw - 09/29/2020 06:46 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - GreenLantern - 09/29/2020 06:49 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - ncsurf - 09/29/2020 07:57 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 09/29/2020 08:15 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Cole - 09/29/2020 10:38 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - sw - 09/29/2020 01:23 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 09/30/2020 06:36 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - SurferMic - 09/30/2020 07:18 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 09/30/2020 07:26 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/02/2020 09:00 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - johnnyboy - 10/02/2020 09:17 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - dingpatch - 10/05/2020 05:23 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Central Floridave - 10/05/2020 05:54 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - dingpatch - 10/06/2020 05:05 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/06/2020 05:18 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - SurferMic - 10/06/2020 07:02 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/06/2020 07:12 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/06/2020 08:40 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - scostuart - 10/06/2020 05:56 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/07/2020 06:13 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - seaspray - 10/22/2020 10:38 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - LaJune - 10/22/2020 11:15 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - scombrid - 10/23/2020 02:03 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/23/2020 03:27 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/23/2020 06:15 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - fishkller - 10/07/2020 01:21 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - dingpatch - 10/07/2020 01:28 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/08/2020 06:45 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - long_flaco1 - 10/08/2020 06:54 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - RiddleMe - 10/08/2020 07:32 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - dingpatch - 10/08/2020 07:41 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/11/2020 07:02 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Cole - 10/11/2020 08:20 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - LaJune - 10/12/2020 01:29 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - long_flaco1 - 10/12/2020 06:30 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - LBLarry - 10/12/2020 05:42 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - ww - 10/12/2020 10:10 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/13/2020 08:16 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Skunkape - 10/14/2020 12:37 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Greensleeves - 10/14/2020 01:47 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/15/2020 07:07 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/17/2020 04:58 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/18/2020 05:04 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/19/2020 01:33 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - SurferMic - 10/20/2020 09:57 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/20/2020 10:46 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/20/2020 01:51 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/21/2020 05:58 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/21/2020 08:30 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/21/2020 08:43 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Cole - 10/21/2020 08:44 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - SurferMic - 10/21/2020 11:19 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - seaspray - 10/21/2020 11:55 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - surferclimber - 10/22/2020 08:58 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/21/2020 12:11 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - ww - 10/21/2020 12:42 PM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/22/2020 04:24 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Plan B - 10/22/2020 04:26 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Cole - 10/22/2020 07:13 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - dingpatch - 10/22/2020 07:26 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - Central Floridave - 10/23/2020 07:22 AM  
 Tropics strangely quiet now   - seaspray - 10/23/2020 07:28 AM  
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 10/05/2020 05:54 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta
has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary
convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what
appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There
are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to
be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently
collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55
kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to
southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb,
much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an
18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that
there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern
quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for
strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or
less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These
conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a
better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed
over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by
calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and
Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or
over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once
the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours,
increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters
over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in
wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although
there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity
when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing
likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge
threat to a portion of that area.

The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears
to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true
storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain
275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening,
and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is
expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial
position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has
resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope
through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that
direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning
for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.
After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then
north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the
track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the
period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than
before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential
landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf
Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are
possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
 10/06/2020 05:05 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

No problems, New Orleans always needs a good flushing out.

-------------------------
Dora Hates You
 10/06/2020 05:18 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Already a Major..... Delta Force is to be reckoned with.....
 10/06/2020 07:02 AM
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SurferMic

Posts: 1251
Joined Forum: 06/30/2012

.

Edited: 10/06/2020 at 07:30 PM by SurferMic
 10/06/2020 07:12 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Yep, timing will be everything on this one..... we'll see. Trying to open some options.
 10/06/2020 08:40 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Well.... you may need that step-up afterall.... it's in full BEAST-MODE and already borderline Cat 4!
 10/06/2020 05:56 PM
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scostuart

Posts: 259
Joined Forum: 12/28/2007

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/weather/2020/10/06/watch--major-hurricane-delta-set-to-strike-mexico

-------------------------

Waiting for waves is ok......most people spend their lives waiting for nothing.

 10/07/2020 06:13 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Still on the fence on this one..... BOC fetch interference and timing of winds... hmmmm
 10/22/2020 10:38 AM
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seaspray

Posts: 647
Joined Forum: 05/10/2012

I just use Surfline as a quick check forecast. If you take away their obvious hypefactor/fudgefactor, it can be somewhat accurate.

I bet this swell peaks tomorrow. By Sunday it will be waist high but less winds
 10/22/2020 11:15 AM
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LaJune

Posts: 62
Joined Forum: 10/04/2015

Surfline is pretty good but I've noticed they habitually under call the swell, if they say the swell is 3-5 foot, it usually is actually 4-6. And they do the same thing with the wind, tomorrow being a good example. Surfline says 6-8k knots all day but will most likely be 8-10 knots all day. I also can't figure out where they pull the numbers for their swells category if you click a surf spot. For example it says 7.7ft @ 10S and 2.6ft @ 12S for Cocoa Beach Pier but none of the buoys at Canaveral or further out show those numbers even if you look back a few hours from the most current reading to find a reading that matches. So I always look at Surfline, Patrick AFB's wind readings, and the 20 mile buoy to get an idea of what's going on when I can't take a look 1st hand myself.

-------------------------
Heavy is sign of reliability
 10/23/2020 02:03 AM
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scombrid

Posts: 18021
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Spectral density plot for 41009 shows 35 m^2/Hz at 15 seconds. It pinged 13.1 feet and 15 seconds a little while ago. That is impressive.

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...

 10/23/2020 03:27 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Last night when I went to bed wind in St. Aug was dead (with some hints of W).... wake up at 6 to see E 10-15
 10/23/2020 06:15 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3302
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

After seeing the flag on A1A by my house last night, I went to sleep as excited as a kid on Christmas Eve..... then I woke up to find Santa ate all the cookies , then took a dump in my stocking.
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