Model guidance has been consistent on tropical development south of Cuba within the next week or so.

speaking of which, while checking that long range, look at the spinny thing south of bermuda 10/21 10/22.

Hopefully the South-of-Cuba thingy moves up and gives us offshores for the Bermuda spinny thing. All theoretical at this point.

I agree, its all speculative now to what the models digest and put out. Even within three days out a lot can change. Offshores and waves would be nice.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad non-tropical low pressure
system located about 600 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is
continuing to become better organized, and satellite wind data
indicates that the circulation has become somewhat better defined.
Additional development of this system is expected, and a
subtropical or tropical depression could form during the next
few days while the low meanders over the central Atlantic well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early next week
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly over the southwestern or western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

long range models has that south blob moving over Florida. But, way out in time, so iffy.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a non-tropical low pressure system located about
500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Continued slow development
is expected, and a subtropical depression or storm is very likely
to form during the next day or two while the low meanders well to
the southeast of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of
this system will be possible through the middle of next week while
it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Disturbance in the Caribbean still hanging around. NHC has it around 50% chance in next two days.

NHC bump it up to 70%

All-things-considered, , , , given what 2020 has already become, , , , I'd bet my lunch money that the area south of Cuba will develop, be named, and then go CAT3 into Lake Charles !! ?? !! ??

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Dora Hates You

Seems the really hot water is confined to the Caribbean. Gulf is mostly cooling off, so if it goes north, most likely a tropical storm. Looks like the hot season's about over. Now for the winter storm season.

Sunday noon. Cat 1 or 2 for Panama City to Lafayette? Weird.

Edited: 10/25/2020 at 09:19 AM by ww

Those poor people.

This is the problem.

http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

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I was right.

.

Edited: 11/10/2020 at 01:05 PM by SurferMic

Yeah, moving fast.... could be a window on wednesday. I sprained my ankle yesterday (hit a steep section that threw me out into the trough / flats and planted all my weight on my front foot.... nice a purple today. so it may be good.....

Looks like winds wont be good on this one, due to its track, and the assymetrical nature of these low-end storms

actually latest GFS update has more favorable winds.... granted time frame for quality fetch/swell direction is limited, has more potential than earlier. Unfortunately I just got back from walgreens to buy a brace for my purple blob ankle..... which needs to heal up if the wacky LONG range models (grain of salt) hold somewhat true

And now, there is this off to the NE of Costa Rica:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Zeta, located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Some slow
development of this system is possible over the weekend or early
next week while it is nearly stationary over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Berg


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Dora Hates You

Looks like a little swell over to our west coast for one more day... Can't believe we just had a boarderline cat 3 landfall this late in season, it is November in what 3 days right? will that make the storms stop for this year can the start of November put an end to this???????

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

It the water doesn't cool, there is no reason they can't continue forever.

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I was right.

NHC: Potential tropical development in the Caribbean with in the next week