Geez, been pretty slow hurricane season the past month. NHC says something. Models do show it spin it up. But too far away in time and space for swell, but like usual, going into late August and September...the boiling pot has to boil over at some point. Stay in Shape!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave just inland over Africa is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave is
expected to move off of the west African coast later today.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form over the eastern
tropical Atlantic by late Sunday or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

T minus two weeks.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

YES PLEASE!!!!

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SK8 AND DESTROY

Friday morning Models have really downplayed any storm activity for next week. Ho Hum...tick tock tick tock...come on tropics...

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms located a
few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated with
a tropical wave interacting with a broader surface trough.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for gradual
development over the next several days, and a tropical depression
could form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. A trough of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, and
some slow development is possible early next week as it approaches
the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

nex week hype alert alredy, wha?

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions are expected to be
somewhat conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form by the early to middle part of next week while the system moves
west-northwestward to westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing limited shower activity. Development of
this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur while it
drifts toward the west-southwest or west over the central tropical
Atlantic through the middle of next week and potentially interacts
with the broader area of low pressure to its east.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic
is producing limited shower activity. Significant development of
this system is not expected as it moves west-northwestward across
the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea during the early to
middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Berg

Like the seasons change so do the models. Now showing a swell maker in the long range. I think the #1 potential mentioned above. Has it developing and moving North of Puerto Rico in the long range.

Aug 15/16th, virtual buoy for 120 mile canaveral.


http://stormsurf.com/cgi-bin/u...swave.41010.bull.4.png

Edited: 08/07/2021 at 06:48 AM by Central Floridave

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a little more than 100 miles south of the
southwesternmost Cabo Verde Islands have increased today. Some
gradual additional development is possible during the next day or
so but strong upper-level winds and cooler waters are likely to
prevent significant development after that time. The system is
expected to move generally west-northwestward to northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless
of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
possible over portions of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands
tonight and Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small but well-defined area of low pressure located over the
tropical Atlantic about a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce limited shower activity. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more favorable for
gradual development over the next several days, and this system
could become a tropical depression by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to drift toward the west-southwest or west
during the next couple of days, and then move a little faster
toward the west-northwest early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located over the west-central tropical Atlantic
is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Significant
development of this system is not anticipated as it moves
west-northwestward across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean
Sea during the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

12Zulu Saturday has that one hit Puerto Rico, so trended more South trajectory on Saturday afternoon model runs. Sure to change. Not a named stormed yet and long range models accuracy is iffy at best, just notice the trends. Something gonna happen...knock on wood, throw salt over my shoulder...no new board purchase please, and out of State travel is approved.

Thanks for the reporting Dave. Fingers eternally crossed.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure of 1011 mb is about 350 nm east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection in disorganized fashion
from 09N to 14N between 51W-58W. The latest ASCAT satellite data
pass show fresh to strong northeast winds north of the center.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at
about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of
the Lesser Antilles by late Mon, and then move near the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Tue, and be near Hispaniola around
the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition,
heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands,
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system.
This system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. Please refer to latest Tropical
Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for the latest information.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola
around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in
association with an elongated low pressure area located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this
system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it
moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Monday morning model runs keep it week as it goes over Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, but long range shows it flare up off the coast of Florida. Something to keep an eye on! We should get a SE swell from it anyway. Check those virtual buoys. Some swell coming.

Scanning the weather models 'potential tropical storm 6' long range shows Florida keys then going up Gulf coast into Panhandle. Saturday/Sunday.

"No Love for da East Coast!"

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SK8 AND DESTROY

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for
this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts
could occur there by late this week or this weekend given the
uncertainty in the long-range forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 16.3N 63.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 17.3N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 18.5N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 19.6N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 20.7N 73.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 13/0000Z 21.7N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 22.7N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 27.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

Tuesday 12Zulu updates show weak and disorganized, but then a flare up off the coast of florida and cuba. Possible SouthEast florida hit Saturday or sunday. But, weak storm for now. Gonna get interesting!

It seems that hurricane season extends further into the Fall each year

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Hi. I'm Mike.

I'm wondering if we will come to a point that the season never ends.



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I was right.