2nd Light Forums |
Topic Title: TD7 Possible new storm GRACE Topic Summary: Long range shows it off the Coast of Florida end of next week. Created On: 08/13/2021 10:48 AM |
Linear : Threading : Single : Branch |
Topic Tools
|
08/13/2021 10:48 AM
|
|
Check your favorite wave models. This one so far looks to track further North, come very near the Bahamas and sit off of Canaveral by next weekend. Tune in next week for more accurate model output, but this one could give us a big swell. Virtual buoys showing an uptick for next Friday and into next weekend.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021 A tropical wave and small area of low pressure moving quickly westward across the central tropical Atlantic has been producing bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the wave axis. Scatterometer data from last evening indicated that the system did not quite have a closed circulation, but it is close. In addition, the convective organization has increased a bit since yesterday, with TAFB and SAB providing Dvorak classification of T1.5 and T2.0. Therefore, only an additional slight increase in convective organization and the low-level circulation closing off would make the system a tropical depression, and it could be at tropical storm strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the Leeward Islands at this time. Subtropical ridging extending across nearly the entire Atlantic is pushing the low along quickly toward the west, or 280/18 kt. In general this ridging is expected to persist into the middle part of next week. However, around the Sunday-Monday time frame, some mid-level troughing over the western Atlantic could allow the system to gain a little more latitude before it runs into additional ridging located near the east coast of the United States at the end of the forecast period. The GFS, which has perhaps one of the strongest solutions, is a northern outlier and shows the system turning farther into the weak troughing, while the ECMWF has a weaker solution and keeps the system on a westward track across the Lesser and Greater Antilles. At this time, the NHC official forecast lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and it is also relatively close to the ECMWF ensemble mean, which is farther north than its parent model. The biggest negative to the system becoming a tropical cyclone and strengthening is its fast motion of 15-20 kt. However, that motion is expected to gradually decrease in 2 to 3 days. At that same time, deep-layer shear has decreased a bit, and the system will be moving over warmer waters and toward a slightly more moist environment. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids through 72 hours, up until the system is near Hispaniola. After that time, land interaction is likely to disrupt the circulation, and the official forecast is below the model consensus aids on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and the risk of tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Sunday and Sunday night. 2. Heavy rainfall with this system may produce areas of scattered flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 14/1200Z 16.2N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 16.7N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 17.2N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 17.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA 96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 18/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH |
|
|
|
08/13/2021 11:41 AM
|
|
wx underground has it coming to close for my liking.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2021/potential-tropical-cyclone-seven |
|
|
|
08/14/2021 05:35 AM
|
|
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 ...GRACE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 56.6W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021 The cyclone has become a little better organized overnight, with an area of concentrated convection persisting over the center for the past several hours. The system remains compact, with the convective canopy about 100 n mi in diameter, while earlier ASCAT data revealed winds greater than 25 kt extended only about 30 n mi from its center, with peak winds of 27 kt. Despite the weaker maximum winds sampled earlier this evening, the increase in organization of such a small system has likely produced a notable increase in the surface winds near the center. In addition the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON suggest that the intensity is now somewhere between 30 and 45 kt. Based on a conservative blend of these values, it is estimated that the Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened into 35-kt Tropical Storm Grace. Grace continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion of 280/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should continue to steer it westward for the next few days. Beyond that time, the forecast models begin to diverge in their track solutions, as they vary in the strength of the ridge. Overall, the models have trended toward a stronger, more persistent ridge to the north of the cyclone for the latter half of the forecast period, and as such the model solutions are generally showing a track that lies a bit south of the previous runs for those time periods. The official NHC forecast track is little changed through 72 h and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Beyond 72 h, the forecast track has been shifted slightly to the south, but still lies to north of the consensus model tracks. The earlier bout of wind shear that had entrained surrounding dry air into Grace appears to have abated, at least in the short term. And, global models indicate that the shear will remain low for about the next 24-36 h while the cyclone moves over increasing SSTs. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that strengthening should occur over the next day or so. Thereafter, the intensity forecast becomes somewhat complicated as the system is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough while possibly crossing the Greater Antilles at the same time. Slight weakening is indicated in the NHC intensity forecast as the system crosses the northern portion of the Dominican Republic early next week. Thereafter, moderate to strong northerly shear is forecast to impact Grace as the system moves into the flow on the western side of an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. This shear should prevent any further strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is a little lower than a blend of the NOAA HCCA and IVCN consensus, as there is likely a high bias from the HWRF in these solutions. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is of lower-than-normal confidence due to the potential for a longer amount of time over the rugged terrain of the Greater Antilles than indicated, and also due to the fragile nature of the small cyclone and the possible effects of the stronger shear later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible over the British Virgin Islands on Sunday. The risk of strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday. 2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.3N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 18.9N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z 19.8N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH Edited: 08/14/2021 at 05:38 AM by Central Floridave |
|
|
|
08/14/2021 05:41 AM
|
|
Just quickly scanning the long range models, Saturday morning model runs have it running into South Florida, Friday Aug 20th. . Hmmm. We need recurve up and away.
|
|
|
|
08/14/2021 06:04 AM
|
|
yeah.... doesnt look like "GRACE" is going to be "amazing"
|
|
|
|
08/14/2021 06:21 AM
|
|
& Classes start on the 23rd. Hospitals are already full... Hmmmmm...
|
|
|
|
08/14/2021 08:32 AM
|
|
I don't think it's Grace, but lookin WAY mo betta up here nex week for several days, at this typing moment, Plan B!
|
|
|
|
08/14/2021 01:50 PM
|
|
------------------------- Hi. I'm Mike. |
|
|
|
08/15/2021 04:22 AM
|
|
"NEW invest #96L looks interesting east of North Carolina. Looks like it will do a nice loop around Bermuda, but jury still out on intensity and the extent of the loop. Tropics keeping us busy till further notice." jc
------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. |
|
|
|
08/15/2021 08:52 AM
|
|
Wake me up when we actually get a hurricane swell...
|
|
|
|
08/15/2021 06:04 PM
|
|
Invest 96 is gonna do it. As long as grace stays out of the way.
|
|
|
|
08/16/2021 04:16 AM
|
|
Mad slop last night. Thanks Atlantic.
Recommend the McClarty museum and the gym while we wait. The Perseids were good. Turtles still coming up down south. |
|
|
|
08/16/2021 11:18 AM
|
|
fun-ish currently
|
|
|
FORUMS
:
Surfing
:
TD7 Possible new storm GRACE
|
Topic Tools
|
FuseTalk Basic Edition - © 1999-2024 FuseTalk Inc. All rights reserved.
First there was Air Jordan .