Check your favorite wave models. This one so far looks to track further North, come very near the Bahamas and sit off of Canaveral by next weekend. Tune in next week for more accurate model output, but this one could give us a big swell. Virtual buoys showing an uptick for next Friday and into next weekend.


Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 13 2021

A tropical wave and small area of low pressure moving quickly
westward across the central tropical Atlantic has been producing
bursts of deep convection near and to the west of the wave axis.
Scatterometer data from last evening indicated that the system did
not quite have a closed circulation, but it is close. In addition,
the convective organization has increased a bit since yesterday,
with TAFB and SAB providing Dvorak classification of T1.5 and T2.0.
Therefore, only an additional slight increase in convective
organization and the low-level circulation closing off would make
the system a tropical depression, and it could be at tropical storm
strength when it approaches the Leeward Islands during the next
couple of days. Therefore, advisories are being initiated on the
system in order to issue Tropical Storm Watches for portions of the
Leeward Islands at this time.

Subtropical ridging extending across nearly the entire Atlantic is
pushing the low along quickly toward the west, or 280/18 kt. In
general this ridging is expected to persist into the middle part of
next week. However, around the Sunday-Monday time frame, some
mid-level troughing over the western Atlantic could allow the
system to gain a little more latitude before it runs into
additional ridging located near the east coast of the United States
at the end of the forecast period. The GFS, which has perhaps one
of the strongest solutions, is a northern outlier and shows the
system turning farther into the weak troughing, while the ECMWF has
a weaker solution and keeps the system on a westward track across
the Lesser and Greater Antilles. At this time, the NHC official
forecast lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and it is
also relatively close to the ECMWF ensemble mean, which is farther
north than its parent model.

The biggest negative to the system becoming a tropical cyclone and
strengthening is its fast motion of 15-20 kt. However, that motion
is expected to gradually decrease in 2 to 3 days. At that same
time, deep-layer shear has decreased a bit, and the system will be
moving over warmer waters and toward a slightly more moist
environment. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated, and
the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN
consensus aids through 72 hours, up until the system is near
Hispaniola. After that time, land interaction is likely to disrupt
the circulation, and the official forecast is below the model
consensus aids on days 4 and 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and the risk of
tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico late Sunday and Sunday night.

2. Heavy rainfall with this system may produce areas of scattered
flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into
Sunday.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of
Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.3N 49.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 14/1200Z 16.2N 55.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.7N 59.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 17.2N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 17.8N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 18.4N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER HISPANIOLA
96H 17/1200Z 20.0N 73.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 18/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

wx underground has it coming to close for my liking.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2021/potential-tropical-cyclone-seven

Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
800 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...GRACE MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 56.6W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
500 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

The cyclone has become a little better organized overnight, with an
area of concentrated convection persisting over the center for the
past several hours. The system remains compact, with the convective
canopy about 100 n mi in diameter, while earlier ASCAT data revealed
winds greater than 25 kt extended only about 30 n mi from its
center, with peak winds of 27 kt. Despite the weaker maximum winds
sampled earlier this evening, the increase in organization of such
a small system has likely produced a notable increase in the
surface winds near the center. In addition the latest Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON
suggest that the intensity is now somewhere between 30 and 45 kt.
Based on a conservative blend of these values, it is estimated that
the Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened into 35-kt Tropical
Storm Grace.

Grace continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion of
280/19 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should
continue to steer it westward for the next few days. Beyond that
time, the forecast models begin to diverge in their track solutions,
as they vary in the strength of the ridge. Overall, the models have
trended toward a stronger, more persistent ridge to the north of
the cyclone for the latter half of the forecast period, and as such
the model solutions are generally showing a track that lies a bit
south of the previous runs for those time periods. The official NHC
forecast track is little changed through 72 h and lies near the
middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Beyond 72 h, the
forecast track has been shifted slightly to the south, but still
lies to north of the consensus model tracks.

The earlier bout of wind shear that had entrained surrounding dry
air into Grace appears to have abated, at least in the short term.
And, global models indicate that the shear will remain low for about
the next 24-36 h while the cyclone moves over increasing SSTs.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that strengthening should
occur over the next day or so. Thereafter, the intensity forecast
becomes somewhat complicated as the system is forecast to interact
with an upper-level trough while possibly crossing the Greater
Antilles at the same time. Slight weakening is indicated in the NHC
intensity forecast as the system crosses the northern portion of the
Dominican Republic early next week. Thereafter, moderate to strong
northerly shear is forecast to impact Grace as the system moves into
the flow on the western side of an upper-level trough over the
western Atlantic. This shear should prevent any further
strengthening through the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast is a little lower than a blend of the NOAA HCCA and IVCN
consensus, as there is likely a high bias from the HWRF in these
solutions. The latter portion of the NHC intensity forecast is of
lower-than-normal confidence due to the potential for a longer
amount of time over the rugged terrain of the Greater Antilles than
indicated, and also due to the fragile nature of the small cyclone
and the possible effects of the stronger shear later in the
forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
Leeward Islands by tonight or early Sunday, and the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are
also possible over the British Virgin Islands on Sunday. The risk of
strong winds will then spread westward to the Dominican Republic
Sunday night and Monday.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding over the
Leeward and Virgin Islands. Across Puerto Rico, heavy rainfall may
lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding, along with the
potential for mudslides.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across Haiti, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, Cuba, and
Florida next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.8N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.7N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.3N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 18.9N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/0600Z 19.8N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0600Z 21.9N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 19/0600Z 24.5N 79.7W 40 KT 45 MPH


Edited: 08/14/2021 at 05:38 AM by Central Floridave

Just quickly scanning the long range models, Saturday morning model runs have it running into South Florida, Friday Aug 20th. . Hmmm. We need recurve up and away.

yeah.... doesnt look like "GRACE" is going to be "amazing"

& Classes start on the 23rd. Hospitals are already full... Hmmmmm...

I don't think it's Grace, but lookin WAY mo betta up here nex week for several days, at this typing moment, Plan B!

-------------------------
Hi. I'm Mike.

"NEW invest #96L looks interesting east of North Carolina. Looks like it will do a nice loop around Bermuda, but jury still out on intensity and the extent of the loop. Tropics keeping us busy till further notice." jc

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.

Wake me up when we actually get a hurricane swell...

Invest 96 is gonna do it. As long as grace stays out of the way.

Mad slop last night. Thanks Atlantic.

Recommend the McClarty museum and the gym while we wait. The Perseids were good. Turtles still coming up down south.

fun-ish currently