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Topic Title: TD #8. T.S. Henri
Topic Summary: Nice spot for a storm to flare up!
Created On: 08/16/2021 04:36 AM
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 08/16/2021 04:36 AM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the
tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been
moving southward and also remains a sheared tropical cyclone -- the
ongoing saga of the Atlantic basin thus far this hurricane season.
Convection has increased and developed closer to the center and a
late-arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 26-27 kt
to the south of the well-defined circulation center. Based on those
data, the slightly improved convective structure noted in both
satellite and radar data, and satellite classifications of T2.0/30
kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 195/04 kt. The small cyclone is
starting to make the clockwise turn toward the south-southwest and
eventually southwest that the global and regional models have been
advertising the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance
now shows less of a turn to the northwest after 72 hours, with the
exception of the GFS, GFS-ensemble, and HMON models, which continue
to take the cyclone northward and northeastward around Bermuda on
day 4 and 5. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track through 60 hours, and then widens the track
slightly thereafter, but still shows a complete clockwise turn. This
track scenario is to the right of the consensus models at all
forecast periods, and is of low confidence on days 4 and 5.

The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain at or below 10 kt for
the next 36 hours or so, and that is most likely the time when the
cyclone will strengthen. Thereafter, an increase in the shear to 20
kt or more is expected to cap the intensification process. The HWRF
model turn the cyclone into a major hurricane by 72 hours, but this
scenario is considered to be an extreme outlier given the amount of
shear forecast to affect the system on days 3-5. So far this season,
the HWRF model has been very shear resistant and has had a high
intensity bias. The official intensity forecast closely follows a
blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models through 60 hours, and
then is below those models due to the high-bias contribution of the
HWRF model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

Edited: 08/17/2021 at 08:03 AM by Central Floridave
 08/16/2021 05:16 AM
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Cole

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Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the
tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been
moving southward


That should mean swell from a good direction, as for the winds?

-------------------------
I was right.
 08/16/2021 06:45 AM
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Central Floridave

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So, far models keep it weak. But, NHC saying possible 65mph. Virtual buoys show nothing so far. Of course with a weak storm the majority of the wind is not pointed at Central Florida. Moving towards us of course helps, but need the NE wind fetch in the top NW quadrant of the storm to generate swell to us. Keep an eye. Hope NHC is correct in strengthening, but models keep it weak on Monday model runs.

So far this year the past storms long range forecast have been off. Look at Grace for an example. Also, the long range models on earlier storms were off. As usual.

 08/16/2021 10:19 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: Central Floridave So, far models keep it weak. But, NHC saying possible 65mph. Virtual buoys show nothing so far. Of course with a weak storm the majority of the wind is not pointed at Central Florida. Moving towards us of course helps, but need the NE wind fetch in the top NW quadrant of the storm to generate swell to us. Keep an eye. Hope NHC is correct in strengthening, but models keep it weak on Monday model runs. So far this year the past storms long range forecast have been off. Look at Grace for an example. Also, the long range models on earlier storms were off. As usual.
Yeah, that's the issue with these things.... Usually only get significant surf when they're to our SE as the windfield is usually asymetric and fairly small. But moving SW slowly can't hurt. I Hope it's either pumping or totally flat so I can go fish
 08/16/2021 11:03 AM
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chopola

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a 35mph storm moving s/w is better than a 75mph storm moving n/e.
 08/16/2021 03:15 PM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: chopola a 35mph storm moving s/w is better than a 75mph storm moving n/e.
100%..... so we'll see what Oh Henri has in store for us.. but rt now the seas are bigger here than off Bermuda
 08/16/2021 03:23 PM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021

Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center
of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC.
Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical
storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a
35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes
the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This
is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020,
2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the
season.

Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected
by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the
surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly
conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance
supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours.
After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly
upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system,
which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the
small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the
increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below.
The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in
shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly
below the IVCN intensity consensus.

The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri
is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours
around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the
western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as
the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and
after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of
the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward.
The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during
the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in
the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near
the center of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 31.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
 08/17/2021 08:05 AM
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Central Floridave

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

...HENRI HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 64.3W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was
located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 64.3 West. Henri is
moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster
motion toward the west is forecast by tonight, followed by a motion
to the west-northwest or northwest by late Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south
of Bermuda through tonight.


Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri remains a sheared tropical storm. Geostationary satellite
images and microwave data show a relatively large area of deep
convection (~200 miles across), but the center of the storm is
located near the western edge of the thunderstorms due to ongoing
northwesterly vertical wind shear. The latest Dvorak estimates have
been steady at 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on that data,
the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The center of Henri is
located roughly 130 miles south-southeast of Bermuda currently, and
this will likely be as close as the storm gets to the island.

The tropical storm is gradually turning to the west, as expected,
and the initial motion is estimated to be 255/5 kt. A subtropical
ridge over the western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of
Henri, and this feature should steer the storm westward at a
slightly faster pace during the next two or three days. After that
time, the ridge is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a
cut off low or negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast
U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the
previous one in the short term and farther west than the previous
one from days 3-5, trending toward the latest consensus models.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is expected to
subside later today, and that should allow the storm to gain
strength during the next 12-24 hours. However, a round of moderate
northerly shear is expected to setup over Henri during the 24-96
hour period. Although this shear would typically cause some
weakening, the combination of warm SSTs and increasing mid-level
moisture could offset the negative influences of the shear.
Therefore, no change in strength is predicted beyond the 24 h
period. Some of the models suggest that the shear could lessen
again this weekend, so although not explicitly forecast, some
strengthening is possible then.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.4N 64.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 30.3N 68.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 30.4N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0000Z 30.7N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 31.6N 71.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 34.1N 69.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 37.4N 66.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
 08/17/2021 08:12 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

fyi, the virtual buoys haven't really shown any swell from Henri for Central Florida. Pains me to think we won't get anything. I imagine Hatteras will, maybe the virtual buoys wrong and we will. Or, the models just haven't got accurate data yet. I guess we gotta wait-and-see on the real buoys if we do. I guess most of the wind isn't pointed at us, but with the storm moving towards us currently you would think we would.

May have to do some old school voodoo magic to get a swell out of Henri. Or Travel North.

 08/17/2021 08:56 AM
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Plan B

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forecast models all showing fetch/ energy on ENE side of the storm pointing away from us (pretty common with these small storms)..... hopefully they're wrong. We should get a small something friday, but looks like this is a time for the OBX and LI....

Edited: 08/17/2021 at 08:56 AM by Plan B
 08/17/2021 09:19 AM
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RiddleMe

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Joined Forum: 07/21/2011

I suppose this isnt accurate

Edited: 08/17/2021 at 09:19 AM by RiddleMe
 08/17/2021 09:28 AM
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Plan B

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That's whats been giving me hope.... maybe the small diameter is the issue
 08/17/2021 11:49 AM
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Central Floridave

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Tuesday afternoon model runs do now show a small ground swell for Friday. Didn't in the morning model runs. Hopefully, it gets a little bigger than forecasted!
 08/17/2021 01:43 PM
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Plan B

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yep... each update has a bit of an uptick.... I have the morning off friday, so fingers crossed
 08/17/2021 02:42 PM
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Central Floridave

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NHC 5pm update, now saying from 60 to 80mph in long range! Cat 1 possible...

Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 17 2021

Henri appears to be gaining strength. Satellite images show banding
features becoming increasingly curved, especially on the east side
of the system, and an eye feature has been occasionally seen in
radar images from Bermuda. The upper-level outflow is also well
established to the north and east of the center. The center itself
is estimated to be located near the western edge of the convection,
but it is possible that a new center is forming farther east. The
initial intensity is raised to 55 kt following the Dvorak
classification from TAFB. The initial wind radii has been expanded
outward based on an earlier ASCAT pass.

The tropical storm appears to have slowed down, and the latest
initial motion estimate is 255/2 kt. A subtropical ridge over the
western Atlantic is building eastward to the north of Henri, and
this feature should steer the storm westward at a slightly faster
pace during the next two to three days. After that time, the ridge
is expected to weaken and shift farther east as a cut off low or
negatively-tilted trough develops over the northeast U.S. This
change in the steering pattern should cause Henri to turn
northeastward between Bermuda and the east coast of the U.S in the
72-120 h period. There is a fair amount of spread in exactly when
and where Henri makes this turn and the GFS and EC ensembles have
some members not far offshore of New England and Atlantic Canada.
Overall, the guidance has shifted westward again this cycle, and the
NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly from days 3 to 5.

The northwesterly shear currently affecting Henri is subsiding,
which should allow the storm to gain a little more strength tonight.
However, a round of moderate northerly shear is expected to setup
over Henri on Wednesday and Thursday and that will likely
temporarily end the opportunity for strengthening. Although this
shear would typically cause some weakening, the combination of warm
SSTs and increasing mid-level moisture could offset the negative
influences of the shear. By Friday and over the weekend, the shear
is expected to lessen again and since the other environmental
factors are predicted to remain favorable for the storm,
strengthening is shown from days 3-5. This forecast is above the
previous one, and lies fairly close to the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 30.4N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 30.3N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 30.2N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 30.2N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 30.3N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 31.0N 71.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 32.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.5N 69.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 39.1N 65.2W 70 KT 80 MPH


Edited: 08/17/2021 at 02:42 PM by Central Floridave
 08/17/2021 02:58 PM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Originally posted by: Plan B yep... each update has a bit of an uptick.... I have the morning off friday, so fingers crossed
friday looking fun...
 08/17/2021 03:11 PM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I can only imagine those virtual buoy readings go up on the next day's model runs! That's what we do now, not predict the surf, predict when the models are going to predict the surf.
 08/17/2021 05:55 PM
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scombrid

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Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

It is double secret since it is on the internet but if you aren't watching for Friday and Saturday morning you are a nincompoop. Mrs. Scombrid wants to take our dogs to the NSI dogs beach on Saturday AM. I pulled my kitchen pass yesterday. I hope it wasn't too soon and I didn't jinx it. I may be wrong. But I doubt it.

-------------------------
...



Edited: 08/17/2021 at 05:58 PM by scombrid
 08/17/2021 07:31 PM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

18zulu model runs made a major change! Check the forecast now!
 08/17/2021 08:22 PM
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johnnyboy

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It's got the same characteristics as Kyle did.

-------------------------

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FORUMS : Surfing : TD #8. T.S. Henri

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