Not sure what the models are picking up on. NHC shows nothing. However, models show something flaring up East of the Bahamas mid-week. Models keep it weak, but SE to East wind swell possible. Wondering if the models have something develop in the wake of Henri, or just a blip. Maybe next swell mid-week wind chop. Long range shows possibly of more storms but nothing definitive. As we slide into peak hurricane season i.e. September we can probably expect some more flare ups. It's fun this time of year for surf forecasting and surfing...every model run means something! Henri was a tease.

Mon-Fri...Aloft, upper troughing is stretched along the east U.S.
coast and across FL early in the week as mid-level high pressure
over the ArkLaTex region expands its presence eastward. By Wed, an
upper disturbance will push from the Bahamas toward north
FL/southeast U.S. and slowly northwestward thru late week further
into the southeast US. Behind it, mid-level high pressure will
slowly try to rebuild across the western Atlc. At the surface, weak
high pressure ridging will slowly get nudged northward remaining
displaced from FL thru the extended. Inverted troughing (Easterly
Wave) will move up behind the aforementioned upper troughing and
across ECFL Thu-overnight into Fri with another surge in moisture,
then drying Fri night. It is to be noted that there are
timing/position/strength differences between the GFS/ECMWF models
regarding the easterly wave. PoPs will generally range from 30-50pct
areawide over the upcoming week; highest storm threats in the
afternoon/evening.

A weak tropical wave can bring waves to! Maybe another paddle-battle tune up wind chop sesh. Keep surfing!


Synopsis for the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas
1002 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

SYNOPSIS
Tropical Storm Henri is now well north of the area and
will continue moving away from the region today, with no further
impacts expected. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will prevail E
and across the Bahamas through Mon, except for fresh to possibly
locally strong winds at night north of Hispaniola and the
approaches to the Windward Passage. A tropical wave will move
across the area by mid-week with fresh to strong winds ahead of
it.

It looks like there's a lot of clouds coming off Africa - behind the current yellow 10% wave - that probably will only grow as moving west this week. Some models hinting at development but I think it's wayyy to early to trust such outputs but definitely worthy to keep an eye on!!!

-------------------------

get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

Edited: 08/21/2021 at 07:32 PM by surferclimber

351 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the local waters will maintain
favorable boating conditions into mid-week ahead of a building
swell from Wednesday night through Friday that will increase seas
to Cautionary levels over at least the offshore waters. Offshore
moving showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and again on Tuesday, then the flow will become onshore and
deepen.

I'll take some chunky onshore windswell over that last "swell" for sure (NE FL got hosed).... could be fun later this week. Ready to remember what it's like to have a wave thump on my head....

Edited: 08/24/2021 at 04:48 AM by Plan B

Synopsis for the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas
1113 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

SYNOPSIS
A surface trough east of the Bahamas will move
westward, bringing strong NE to E winds over the central Bahamas
tonight. By Thu morning, the surface trough will extend from
30N78W to the western tip of Cuba, bringing fresh to strong E
winds to the east of northern Florida before the trough weakens by
late Thu. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high pressure located near Bermuda
will dominate the remainder of the forecast region through at
least Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected N of
Hispaniola including the approaches to the Windward Passage
through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue to
pulse north of Hispaniola during the evening hours through Sat
night. Expect increasing winds across the waters between Cuba and
the Bahamas by the end of the week as a tropical system develops
over the NW Caribbean.

Viva La Chop Hop City

THIS AFTERNOON
Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet
with a dominant period 9 seconds.

WEDNESDAY
East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a
dominant period 8 seconds.

THURSDAY
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet.

FRIDAY
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.

SATURDAY
East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Fyi, This Thursday evening the flags went limp, maybe a DP glass off? Hoping. Buoy is up.