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Topic Title: Here comes 12 / Larry? Topic Summary: This could be the one.... Created On: 08/31/2021 02:58 PM |
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08/31/2021 02:58 PM
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Could we finally have a solid swell producing "fish" storm? Looks like it. Doesnt look to get close enough to get huge, but I'll take some solid clean long period swell, esp after the past few years.... and I'll be happy to drive 10 minutes, not 10 hours for good surf too....
60H 03/0600Z 13.3N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 14.3N 39.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 16.5N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 19.5N 47.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
Edited: 08/31/2021 at 03:03 PM by Plan B |
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08/31/2021 03:53 PM
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Plan B .... I will do what I can for ya and speak to my other brother Larry
------------------------- "Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell "Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right. If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore. |
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08/31/2021 04:02 PM
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Wake me up when it happens. But, thanks for setting the alarm clock!
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08/31/2021 05:19 PM
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Edited: 08/31/2021 at 05:21 PM by Plan B |
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09/01/2021 04:07 AM
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 010858 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 800 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C have increased over and to the west of the low-level center since the previous advisory. Subjective satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt, while the most recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are T2.8/41 kt from ADT and 37 kt from SATCON. An average of these intensity estimates support increasing the advisory intensity to 40 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Larry. In addition, 0300 UTC and 0700 UTC observations from ship VRNF3, which recently passed through the center of Larry, reported a pressure of 1006.8 mb and winds near 25 kt. These data were the basis for the estimated central pressure of 1003 mb, a pressure value that also supports an intensity of 40 kt. Larry has turned more westward over the past several hours, and the new motion estimate is 280/17 kt. Larry is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday, and a northwestward motion over the weekend and continuing into early next week. There has been a pronounced westward shift in the track guidance for this cycle, with the greatest shift coming from the GFS model. Over the past 36 hours, the GFS has shifted its track westward by more than 500 nmi, and even the latest shift still keeps the GFS model the easternmost track forecast in the guidance suite. In contrast, the ECMWF and UKMET models, which lie along the westernmost portion of the guidance envelope, have been fairly stable. Owing to the westward shift in the overall guidance envelope, and considering the GFS solution as an outlier model, the new NHC forecast track has also been shifted westward, and lies between the NOAA-HCCA corrected-consensus model to the south, and the tightly packed TVCA simple-consensus model and FSSE corrected-consensus model to the north. Given the poor handling of the ridge to the north of Larry by the GFS, subsequent NHC forecast tracks may have to be shifted farther west. Given the improved inner-core wind field based on earlier ASCAT wind data and reports from ship VRNF3, along with warm sea-surface temperatures of 28 deg C and light easterly to southeasterly vertical shear of around 5 kt, steady strengthening is expected for the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours when Larry is expected to be a hurricane and have a well-established and tighter inner-core wind field and possibly an eye, rapid intensification is forecast, with Larry becoming a major hurricane by 72 hour. This in large part due to the massive equatorward upper-level outflow pattern that all of the global and regional models are forecasting, which is the same type of outflow pattern that recently occurred with Hurricane Ida. The new official intensity forecast is above the previous advisory forecast by about 10 kt at all forecast times, and conservatively follows an average of the Decay-SHIPS, COAMPS-TC, FSSE, and ECMWF models. This intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance envelope and is above the other consensus intensity models. ------------------------- So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off. |
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09/01/2021 06:08 AM
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09/01/2021 06:13 AM
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Man that 5AM update on Larry said everything a tropical swell starved surfer wants to hear.
------------------------- Heavy is sign of reliability |
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09/01/2021 08:13 AM
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Larry, tell your brother to SLOW DOWN! no need to be in such a rush....
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09/01/2021 09:33 AM
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come on ride that train choochoo and ride it!
------------------------- I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life |
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09/01/2021 11:30 AM
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Larry, tell your brother to SLOW DOWN! no need to be in such a rush.... Trying dude, trying. Talking to him about doing the Belle stall and slow crawl ------------------------- "Most people would die sooner than think; in fact, they do." - Bertrand Russell "Morality is doing what is right, regardless of what you are told. Religion is doing what you are told, regardless of what is right. If I do not answer you .... nothing personal, I just have you on ignore. |
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09/01/2021 04:03 PM
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I have an older brother named Larry, does that help?
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09/01/2021 04:03 PM
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It's gonna be good it's gonna be good it's gonna be good.
------------------------- "One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky. |
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09/01/2021 06:11 PM
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09/01/2021 07:18 PM
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The intensity guidance basically keeps a steady intensity from 60-120 h, and the official forecast follows that trend. However, this part of the intensity forecast is in the middle of the guidance, and it is possible Larry could be
stronger than forecast during this time.....
Sooooo are they saying just might be cat 10 perfect set up for swell next week, let's hope he doesn't decided to visit land anywhere!!!
------------------------- get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :) |
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09/01/2021 10:43 PM
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Major hurricane by Friday-wow.
Cat3 by Saturday. Here's hoping Larry stays far offshore. |
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09/02/2021 04:15 AM
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Time to up the laps in the pool!
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09/02/2021 04:56 AM
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EURO predicting a tighter more intense storm (borderline cat4) but more importantly slower moving, giving us an extra day of swell..... GFS, slightly less intense, but broader windfield (good), but moving faster...... this year, GFS has seemed to be more accurate, but looks like NHC is siding with the EURO, so we'll see..... good waves either way, as long as local winds cooperate, still a week out, so we'll which day is worth playing hookey..... Yes, I am a nerd
Edited: 09/02/2021 at 04:58 AM by Plan B |
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09/02/2021 06:37 AM
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Check those virtual buoys! Wowsa... Yes, please be favorable local winds. We need this. been a long time since big swell around these parts.
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09/02/2021 07:29 AM
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Looking forward to the well over head 3 block long close outs.
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09/02/2021 09:13 AM
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Here comes 12 / Larry?
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