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Topic Title: Here comes 12 / Larry?
Topic Summary: This could be the one....
Created On: 08/31/2021 02:58 PM
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 09/02/2021 09:30 AM
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mp2115

Posts: 133
Joined Forum: 05/29/2009

Originally posted by: Plan B
Originally posted by: RiddleMe Looking forward to the well over head 3 block long close outs.
There's always "That guy"
There will be some rainbows just gotta to some homework where this swell will break.
 09/02/2021 09:39 AM
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Long Beard

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Originally posted by: Plan B

Originally posted by: RiddleMe

Looking forward to the well over head 3 block long close outs.


There's always "That guy"



I mean he aint lying.


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R I P Mama G.

@Salt.And.Savagery.Fishing

@Laserwolf.Laserwolf
 09/02/2021 10:01 AM
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RiddleMe

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Originally posted by: mp2115

Originally posted by: Plan B

Originally posted by: RiddleMe

Looking forward to the well over head 3 block long close outs.


There's always "That guy" [IMG][/IMG]


There will be some rainbows just gotta to some homework where this swell will break. [IMG]i/expressions/sun.gif" border="0[/IMG]


I was serious. Any surf is better than no surf.

Yes, I know where to go. I just don't want to drive and the place nearby that will break it up some will be a zoo.
 09/02/2021 10:29 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Does this mean... waves for NKF finals Monday? or no.... Hype alert

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Low tide is the new high tide.
 09/02/2021 03:08 PM
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Plan B

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Once Larry completes the ongoing ERC, significant or even rapid intensification is anticipated. The short-term intensity forecast has been raised a bit more, since it appears more likely the present ERC will finish in the next 6-12 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast now makes Larry a major hurricane by tomorrow night, with further intensification up to Category 4 intensity anticipated by Sunday. Once again, there remains some discrepancy in the vertical wind shear forecast between the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance, with the ECMWF forecasting significantly more southwesterly shear beyond 72 hours. Both guidance tools also indicate a decrease in mid-level relative humidity which, if the shear materializes, could disrupt Larry's inner core structure. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast still shows gradual weakening from 72 to 120 hours. The latest intensity forecast is just a hair above HCCA in the short term, with the intensity forecast most closely following the latest COAMPS-TC (CTCI) guidance in the first three days 60H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.6W 120 KT 140 MPH Looking VERY similar to this classic (name this storm... no cheating)

Edited: 09/02/2021 at 03:09 PM by Plan B
 09/02/2021 04:55 PM
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Plan B

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 09/02/2021 05:38 PM
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1974

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Originally posted by: Long Beard
Originally posted by: Plan B
Originally posted by: RiddleMe

Looking forward to the well over head 3 block long close outs.


There's always "That guy" [IMG][/IMG]


I mean he aint lying.


Hahaha yeah I was going to say, "He has a point there.."



-------------------------
Hi. I'm Mike.
 09/02/2021 09:00 PM
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ww

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    Looks like a big, powerful storm. Surfline, for once, might be a bit conservative. Not expecting anything like Logan Hayes, March 2018.


Edited: 09/03/2021 at 12:49 AM by ww
 09/03/2021 07:07 AM
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Cole

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Originally posted by: RiddleMe

Looking forward to the well over head 3 block long close outs.



It might be far enough out to override our shitty Floridian luck for once. And it will be from the south so I'll be able to skip on RC's and the like. Our hood has a good bar too, if you know where to look.


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So long and thanks for all the fish.
 09/03/2021 07:48 AM
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Central Floridave

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btw, speaking of Rc's. Since those twin ugly condos went up and the dredge and fill project, it ain't breaking like it use to. Just another break now.
 09/03/2021 07:58 AM
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Greensleeves

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We do Cole. This whole area set up. RCs will have 1000s of people there for old times sake.


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 09/03/2021 08:15 AM
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tom

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Predicted 16 sec period? I think 3 block closeouts may be conservative. Anticipation.

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
 09/03/2021 08:23 AM
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Plan B

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Spots that normally are mushy lazy waves may become good breaks.....of course also inlets and weird bends in the beach. I have a few local spots planned out in my head, but tides are a huge factor in surf quality for us up here.... with any luck it'll be big enough that tides dont matter
 09/03/2021 09:16 AM
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stokedpanda

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would putting in for a day/days off jinx it? asking for a friend

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I troll 2L.com to be a better person in real life
 09/03/2021 10:28 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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is your friend's name Larry? did they go to school with your Uncle? I'd say .....yep

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Low tide is the new high tide.
 09/03/2021 01:13 PM
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long_flaco1

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would putting in for a day/days off jinx it? asking for a friend


Dangit! I just did this for Wednesday and Friday!!

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SK8 AND DESTROY
 09/03/2021 06:58 PM
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Plan B

Posts: 3246
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Originally posted by: long_flaco1
would putting in for a day/days off jinx it? asking for a friend
Dangit! I just did this for Wednesday and Friday!!
good, 'cause thursday is the day With the recent improvement in Larry's structure on satellite imagery, the hurricane may be starting another rapid intensification (RI) cycle, as suggested by the high RI probabilities given in the DTOPS guidance. However, the earlier microwave data also suggested that there were a lot of concentric bands outside of the primary eyewall, and it is not out of the question that another eyewall replacement cycle could begin in the next 24-36 hours. Instead of attempting to forecast these often stochastic processes, the latest NHC intensity forecast will instead show a healthy rate of deepening over the next several days, now taking Larry to 120 kt in 48 hours. Afterwards, there still remain questions as to how much the vertical wind shear will increase over Larry, with the ECMWF-SHIPS indicating higher shear that could affect Larry's inner-core structure, while the GFS-SHIPS showing much lower shear. Warmer sea-surface temperatures also await the hurricane in the 60-96 hour period. Due to these competing factors, the intensity forecast during this period will only show very gradual weakening. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, but still remains lower than the higher HAFS-B and COAMPS-TC models. It should be noted that the majority of the guidance also shows Larry becoming a very large hurricane, with a significant expansion of the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii also forecast. Significant ocean swells generated by the increasingly large wind field of Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well.
 09/04/2021 04:51 AM
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RiddleMe

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Actually liking the early high tide for this size and period
 09/04/2021 06:47 AM
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mp2115

Posts: 133
Joined Forum: 05/29/2009

Hurricane Bill 2009 & Hurricane Katia 2011 are similar in strength and path. There are probably more but those two I've surfed both and are relatively recent on the timeline. Happy hunting everyone.
 09/04/2021 09:54 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3246
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Originally posted by: mp2115 Hurricane Bill 2009 ... similar in strength and path.
Ding Ding.... the track I posted above was from Bill.... and instead of Covid, that summer we had H1N1
36H 06/0000Z 20.3N 51.5W 125 KT 145 MPH


Edited: 09/04/2021 at 09:59 AM by Plan B
FORUMS : Surfing : Here comes 12 / Larry?

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