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Topic Title: Soon to be SAM
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Created On: 09/22/2021 02:10 PM
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 09/22/2021 02:10 PM
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paddleout

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Stay away!



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 09/22/2021 02:22 PM
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paddleout

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Windy's ECMWF & GFS models both have it decently offshore around next friday

http://www.windy.com/?2021100200,26.234,-69.763,5

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 09/22/2021 05:52 PM
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johnnyboy

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I am Sam Sam I am.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 09/23/2021 04:17 AM
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Plan B

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Originally posted by: paddleout Stay away!
YES! Stay away..... GFS has the front pushing down, creating a cane shield, but killing the swell with HARD onshores ...... EURO, has a "roll the dice" pucker factor involved, with the front 2 days behind, letting the storm get stressfully close, but with a potentially epic day of offshore surf (and perfect swell angle)..... This year, GFS has handled these storms better, so we'll see about the rest.....stay tuned sports fans....
 09/23/2021 07:27 AM
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dingpatch

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Too soon to tell but, looks like It will be well off the coast.
 09/23/2021 09:47 AM
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Central Floridave

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Tropical Storm Sam Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 23 2021

Overnight and this morning, the satellite structure of the tropical
cyclone has been improving, with prominent curved bands, and obvious
low-level cloud motions that indicate the circulation is becoming
established within the convection. In particular, an SSMIS microwave
pass at 0653 UTC indicated a substantial improvement in the
convective structure, with a well-defined curved band wrapping
three-quarters of the way around the center in both the 91- and
37-GHz channels. ASCAT-B wind retrievals at 1234 UTC also indicated
a tight, well-defined circulation had formed, with peak winds of
44-kt on the north side of the vortex. Subjective Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are now T3.5/55-kt from SAB and T2.5/35-kt from
TAFB. In addition, the latest objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON were at 35-kt and 43-kt respectively. Given
the recent scatterometer data, the intensity has been set to 45-kt
for this advisory. Thus, Tropical Depression 18 has been upgraded to
Tropical Storm Sam. It is noteworthy that this is the 2nd earliest
formation of the 18th named storm in the Atlantic basin, moving
ahead of the 2005 hurricane season, and only trailing last year.

Sam continues to move to the west-northwest with an estimated motion
at 280/14 kt. A prominent mid-level ridge remains entrenched to the
north of the cyclone, and this feature should continue to steer Sam
to the west-northwest over the next 2-3 days. Over this period, the
ridge orientation actually shifts more westward ahead of the cyclone
as a deep-layer trough digs in well northeast of Sam. This gradual
change in the synoptic pattern should also result in a slowdown in
Sam's forward motion over the next 72 hours. While the track
guidance remains in good agreement over this period, larger spread
begins to take shape beyond the day 3 forecast. Similar to
yesterday, the ECMWF model and its ensemble mean flanks the
southwest side of the guidance envelop, while the GFS is on the
northeast side by day 5. These differences appear to be partially
related to the mid-level ridge intensity on the western end, which
could begin to be eroded by a mid-latitude trough off the eastern
United States in 120-h. In addition, differences in both the size
and intensity of Sam may also play a role in its ultimate track
evolution. For this advisory, the latest NHC track forecast remains
close to the consensus aids TCVN and TCVE, which represents a slight
shift westward and a bit faster motion compared to the previous
forecast. Because Sam is forecast to slow down, it remains too early
to determine what impacts, direct or indirect, could be felt by the
Lesser Antilles by this cyclone.

The previously mentioned SSMIS microwave imagery also indicated that
the low-level center has become better aligned with the mid-level
vortex, perhaps a bit earlier than anticipated given the
scatterometer data from last night. This improvement in structure,
combined with favorable low vertical wind shear under 10 kt and warm
28-29 C sea-surface temperatures, argues for significant
intensification. In fact, the GFS-SHIPS rapid intensification index
now give Sam a 39 percent chance of a 65-kt increase over the next
72 hours, which is more than 7 times the climatological value. Thus,
the NHC intensity forecast has been raised quite a bit from the
prior one, especially in the short-term. The latest forecast now
makes Sam a hurricane in 36 hours, and a major hurricane in 72
hours. This intensity forecast is just a shade under the latest HCCA
consensus aid. Thereafter, a more gradual intensification rate is
forecast. By this period it is possible that Sam could undergo hard
to predict inner-core changes such as eyewall replacement cycles. In
addition, the ECMWF-SHIPS suggests that the shear may also increase
a little in days 4-5 which also argues for a bit slower rate of
intensification for this period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 10.9N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 11.3N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 11.9N 42.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 12.3N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 12.7N 46.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 13.2N 48.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 13.7N 49.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 15.3N 52.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 17.4N 55.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
 09/23/2021 11:16 AM
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paddleout

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 09/23/2021 05:32 PM
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pompano

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yes, waves for the alumni contest, but onshore winds will suck.
 09/26/2021 05:52 AM
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Plan B

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intense mini-cane..... like one of those feather weight boxers you'd rather not F-with Local forecast slowly improving as weather systems are slowing their roll.... we'll see
 09/26/2021 10:01 AM
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Central Floridave

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'Tis da season. Can't wait for more hurricane surf!
 09/26/2021 10:07 AM
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Central Floridave

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NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021

...SAM CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Sam is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/7 kt. A deep-layer
subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam should generally
steer the hurricane west-northwestward to northwestward for the next
several days. By midweek, an amplifying upper-level trough will
move off the east coast of the U.S. and dig southward over the
western Atlantic, which will erode the western extent of the
steering ridge. The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of the trough
should cause Sam to begin recurving, with a somewhat faster
north-northwestward motion forecast by day 5. The latest NHC track
forecast was adjusted a little to the left, or southwest of the
previous official forecast, mainly at days 4 and 5, but not quite as
far southwest as the model consensus aids.

The hurricane will likely experience some fluctuations in intensity
during the next few days. Guidance, however, indicates that the
chance of an eyewall replacement cycle during the next 36 hours is
below climatology. Sam will remain over warm sea-surface
temperatures and in a low wind shear environment for the next 3
days, with less than 10 kt of shear diagnosed by the SHIPS guidance.
It is possible that Sam's slow forward motion during the next 2 to 3
days could cause some upwelling of cooler water, but this will
probably not result in significant weakening. The official NHC
intensity forecast lies on the high end of the guidance for the
first 36-48 h of the forecast period. Thereafter, the NHC forecast
is closer to the middle of the guidance envelope. Some gradual
weakening is forecast later in the period as southwesterly vertical
wind shear begins to increase, but Sam is still forecast to remain a
major hurricane through the 5-day period.

The radii were expanded slightly by 5-10 n mi in the western
semicircle from the previous advisory based on a 1155 UTC ASCAT-A
pass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 13.9N 50.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 14.4N 51.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 15.2N 52.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 16.0N 53.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 16.8N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 17.7N 55.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 18.6N 57.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 21.4N 60.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 25.6N 63.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
 09/27/2021 02:42 AM
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tom

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Peter trying to reorganize near Bermuda. If it happens, can we call him RePete?

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 09/27/2021 11:21 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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good one, tom so are we gettin waves from this yes or no, Stay away! did it? Pass nearby? Gators wanna know.

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Low tide is the new high tide.
 09/27/2021 12:50 PM
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Central Floridave

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LOL at Repete.

Wind forecast coming up...bleh...hope it's wrong.
 09/27/2021 06:16 PM
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surferclimber

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It looks like timing going to be quick on this one: Friday building with winds OK but not great... then Saturday big but messy winds, and then maybe some leftovers on Sunday? Further north the better, probably really good outer banks, and while it's not looking like the greatest swell here I'm just glad he's not coming our way - was 150mph yesterday that's not something to mess with, phewww

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

 09/28/2021 06:07 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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I'm gonna go with - N o the cape looking like fun surf thurs - monday and then add the tom-ism...Florida: Tide, Wind, or Waves. Pick any two.

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Low tide is the new high tide.
 09/29/2021 09:13 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 29 2021

Sam has a well-organized cloud pattern on satellite imagery, with a
90 n mi-wide Central Dense Overcast surrounded by numerous
convective banding features. Upper-level outflow has now become
better established to the southeast of the hurricane. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter mission from a couple of hours ago reported a 20 n
mi-wide diameter circular eye. The current intensity is held at 115
kt for this advisory, which is a little higher than the maximum
winds observed in the earlier aircraft mission. However, since the
estimated minimum central pressure of 949 is a little lower than it
was earlier this morning and Sam's intensity has been fluctuating,
it is considered prudent not to lower the winds at this time. An
Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
hurricane soon and will provide another intensity estimate.

Sam continues its slow northwestward trek with the current motion
remaining near 310/8 kt. Sam should move northwestward and then
northward around the western portion of the subtropical ridge over
the eastern Atlantic during the next few days, and turn toward
the north-northeast and northeast later in the forecast period.
The track guidance models are in very good agreement through 72
hours or so, with some increase in model spread thereafter. This
increase in spread is largely due to how Sam will interact with a
strong mid-latitude trough moving through Atlantic Canada. Some
of the guidance suggests that this trough could partially bypass
the hurricane around the end of the period and beyond, but this
is not yet clear. The current NHC forecast track is not much
different from the previous one and is in good agreement with the
dynamical model consensus, TVCA.

The hurricane will continue to move over warm waters and in an
environment of low vertical shear and diffluent upper-level flow
for the next 1-2 days. Thus, it would not be surprising to soon
see some restrengthening. The official intensity forecast is
essentially a blend of the latest Decay-SHIPS and LGEM predictions,
and is very similar to the previous NHC forecast. Sam is likely to
remain a major hurricane into this weekend.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands
and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday.
Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the
upcoming weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 19.4N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 20.3N 58.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 21.8N 59.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 23.9N 61.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.6N 61.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 02/0000Z 29.4N 61.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 32.0N 60.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 36.2N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 39.5N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
 09/30/2021 06:04 AM
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IamSAW2

Posts: 134
Joined Forum: 01/10/2014

<=IamTotally SkunkedThisMorningAndNowBackAtWork, ugggh, total DP failure this morning, driving all up and down looking for something worthy of getting wet and adding insult to injury the onshores (which had looked very promising last night to be hopefully light, not). Oh well it's Florida - wind waves tide - pick any one (yes we have wind)...... isgust;

Edited: 09/30/2021 at 06:05 AM by IamSAW2
 09/30/2021 06:29 AM
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seaspray

Posts: 530
Joined Forum: 05/10/2012

Winds much lighter up north. I think I'm gonna do a drive and see my folks up in N FL and surf the poles
 09/30/2021 06:42 AM
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johnnyboy

Posts: 20377
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

The swell is a no show for now.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

FORUMS : Surfing : Soon to be SAM

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