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Topic Title: Thurs/morn/surf/report
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Created On: 09/23/2021 05:54 AM
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 09/23/2021 05:54 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50090
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Surf is 3-4 feet in long period ESE swell. Checked Satbe to 2ndlight. All looks semi-the-same. Glassy. Caught a few waves that made it worth it. I think the wind is turning onshore today, but it was offshore and glassy for Dawn Patrol.
 09/23/2021 06:14 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50090
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

SYNOPSIS
Boating conditions will deteriorate today across the
northern and central waters as a surge of north winds develops
behind a cold front. Winds and seas gradually diminish Friday
into the weekend as winds veer northeast. Numerous showers and
storms likely over the local waters south of the Cape through
Saturday, then drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

TODAY
West to Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15
to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant
period 10 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight
chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers. Chance
of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
 09/23/2021 07:26 AM
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Plan B

Posts: 3246
Joined Forum: 03/08/2004

Wind is NNW at 15 up here.... surf wouldve been really fun, otherwise....
 09/23/2021 07:57 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50090
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

The wind just shifted from the North here. Weird to see the term 'cold front' in the Wx discussion:

.DISCUSSION...

Today...An early autumn cold front is pushing into central FL this
morning but it will slow down and temporarily stall across our
southern counties by tonight. A wind shift out of the north will
occur before sunrise from Orlando/Titusville northward along with
some stratus, then reach Melbourne/Palm Bay by mid morning. A
light shower or sprinkle is possible but most areas will remain
dry. Ahead of the front, patchy dense fog will affect portions of
Okeechobee to the Treasure coast through early morning.

Drier air will filter into northern sections but high PWATs will
remain across the south. This will produce a tight gradient of
rain/thunder chances ranging from 10 percent across the far north
to 70 percent across the Treasure coast counties. Once the stratus
and fog lift to the south, there will be opportunity for heating
along with sea/lake breeze boundaries interacting with the cool
front this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms may
result, containing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds.
Numerous boundary collisions may be able to locally maximize low
level shear and produce storm rotation. Another concern will be
heavy rain that accumulates 1-3 inches in a short period of time.
Standing water will develop quickly where recent heavy rains have
occurred.

Tonight...The storms should linger into the early evening across
the south then dissipate. With the front expected to stall across
the treasure coast, there is a chance that one or two bands of
rain may set up from the Atlc and across portions of the Saint
Lucie or Martin coasts overnight. The onshore flow does not look
strong and the NE trajectory is not the most favorable but
moisture will remain plentiful. So will keep a small PoP along the
Treasure coast overnight. Min temps should drop into the upper
60s across Lake and Volusia counties with some mid 60s in rural
locations. Elsewhere, mins will be around 70/lower 70s.

Friday...The cold front that moved into Central FL on Thursday
will stall across our area on Friday, with the bulk of deep
moisture located south of a line from Titusville to Tampa. The
highest rain chances will focus along the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee County, where there is a 50-70 percent chance of
showers/storms, with decreasing coverage to the north. Areas north
of I-4 are forecast to remain dry. There could end up being a
tight moisture gradient, meaning areas as far south as the Space
Coast might not see much in the way of shower/storm activity. This
will depend on how far south the drier air can make it before the
front stalls, the GFS is more bullish with this, while the
ECMWF/CMC/NAM keep drier air along and north of a line from
Kissimmee to Titusville.

Afternoon temps reach around 90 degrees, though it should feel
better for northern areas where low 60s dew points will be present,
and sultry for southern areas with dew points in the low/mid 70s.
Scattered showers and a few storms could linger along the Treasure
Coast into the evening before dissipating. Friday night temps drop
into the low/mid 70s, with upper 60s possible in rural areas of
northern Lake and northwest Volusia Counties.

Saturday...The weekend starts of wet for the far southern areas as
the stalled front remains, with high rain chances (50-60 percent)
from Okeechobee to PSL southward. The good news is that the dry air
is expected to shift south, eliminating rain chances from Kissimmee
to Titusville northward, and only a low chance of rain (20 percent)
for the rest of Brevard/Osceola counties. Again, this will all
depend on how far south the initial surge of dry air makes it, with
a tight moisture gradient likely to still be in place making the
rainfall forecast difficult and uncertain.

Sunday-Wednesday...A large upper-level trough will move across the
eastern CONUS on Sunday causing a reinforcing cold front to move
through Central FL Sunday afternoon. While no temperature changes
occur, this frontal passage will bring in much drier air and push
out any lingering moisture/shower activity. High pressure builds
across the Southeastern U.S. giving us a period of mostly dry
conditions Monday and Tuesday, as only a marginal 15-20 percent
chance of rain exists across the southern areas each afternoon.
Moisture increases slightly Wednesday, as low 70s dew points with
scattered showers and isolated storms return to the forecast.

Highs each afternoon will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees,
but with dew points in the 60s it will be a manageable heat through
mid week. Morning lows Monday/Tuesday in the upper 60s to around 70
degrees for inland areas, and low 70s along the coast.
 09/23/2021 08:17 AM
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KP

Posts: 3798
Joined Forum: 07/28/2006

Was fun even as the tide filled in. Should be enough swell in the water for those who can't get out till after work. (Though it might be bumpy with the wind)

-------------------------
Time and tide wait for no one.....
 09/23/2021 08:39 AM
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Greensleeves

Posts: 17836
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Super fun CB. N wind kind of got on it but still nice.

-------------------------
 09/23/2021 10:44 AM
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JOESTRUMMER

Posts: 491
Joined Forum: 03/24/2012

RE : Super fun CB. N wind kind of got on it but still nice. **** Way fun at the streets ! Gotta love Mama N ----- last week in September and here come the Northerlies right on time and Que ! October cool down cometh soon !

Edited: 09/23/2021 at 10:45 AM by JOESTRUMMER
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