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Topic Title: Thurs/morn/surf/report Topic Summary: Created On: 09/23/2021 05:54 AM |
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- Central Floridave | - 09/23/2021 05:54 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 09/23/2021 06:14 AM |
- Plan B | - 09/23/2021 07:26 AM |
- Central Floridave | - 09/23/2021 07:57 AM |
- KP | - 09/23/2021 08:17 AM |
- Greensleeves | - 09/23/2021 08:39 AM |
- JOESTRUMMER | - 09/23/2021 10:44 AM |
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09/23/2021 07:57 AM
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The wind just shifted from the North here. Weird to see the term 'cold front' in the Wx discussion:
.DISCUSSION... Today...An early autumn cold front is pushing into central FL this morning but it will slow down and temporarily stall across our southern counties by tonight. A wind shift out of the north will occur before sunrise from Orlando/Titusville northward along with some stratus, then reach Melbourne/Palm Bay by mid morning. A light shower or sprinkle is possible but most areas will remain dry. Ahead of the front, patchy dense fog will affect portions of Okeechobee to the Treasure coast through early morning. Drier air will filter into northern sections but high PWATs will remain across the south. This will produce a tight gradient of rain/thunder chances ranging from 10 percent across the far north to 70 percent across the Treasure coast counties. Once the stratus and fog lift to the south, there will be opportunity for heating along with sea/lake breeze boundaries interacting with the cool front this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms may result, containing frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds. Numerous boundary collisions may be able to locally maximize low level shear and produce storm rotation. Another concern will be heavy rain that accumulates 1-3 inches in a short period of time. Standing water will develop quickly where recent heavy rains have occurred. Tonight...The storms should linger into the early evening across the south then dissipate. With the front expected to stall across the treasure coast, there is a chance that one or two bands of rain may set up from the Atlc and across portions of the Saint Lucie or Martin coasts overnight. The onshore flow does not look strong and the NE trajectory is not the most favorable but moisture will remain plentiful. So will keep a small PoP along the Treasure coast overnight. Min temps should drop into the upper 60s across Lake and Volusia counties with some mid 60s in rural locations. Elsewhere, mins will be around 70/lower 70s. Friday...The cold front that moved into Central FL on Thursday will stall across our area on Friday, with the bulk of deep moisture located south of a line from Titusville to Tampa. The highest rain chances will focus along the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, where there is a 50-70 percent chance of showers/storms, with decreasing coverage to the north. Areas north of I-4 are forecast to remain dry. There could end up being a tight moisture gradient, meaning areas as far south as the Space Coast might not see much in the way of shower/storm activity. This will depend on how far south the drier air can make it before the front stalls, the GFS is more bullish with this, while the ECMWF/CMC/NAM keep drier air along and north of a line from Kissimmee to Titusville. Afternoon temps reach around 90 degrees, though it should feel better for northern areas where low 60s dew points will be present, and sultry for southern areas with dew points in the low/mid 70s. Scattered showers and a few storms could linger along the Treasure Coast into the evening before dissipating. Friday night temps drop into the low/mid 70s, with upper 60s possible in rural areas of northern Lake and northwest Volusia Counties. Saturday...The weekend starts of wet for the far southern areas as the stalled front remains, with high rain chances (50-60 percent) from Okeechobee to PSL southward. The good news is that the dry air is expected to shift south, eliminating rain chances from Kissimmee to Titusville northward, and only a low chance of rain (20 percent) for the rest of Brevard/Osceola counties. Again, this will all depend on how far south the initial surge of dry air makes it, with a tight moisture gradient likely to still be in place making the rainfall forecast difficult and uncertain. Sunday-Wednesday...A large upper-level trough will move across the eastern CONUS on Sunday causing a reinforcing cold front to move through Central FL Sunday afternoon. While no temperature changes occur, this frontal passage will bring in much drier air and push out any lingering moisture/shower activity. High pressure builds across the Southeastern U.S. giving us a period of mostly dry conditions Monday and Tuesday, as only a marginal 15-20 percent chance of rain exists across the southern areas each afternoon. Moisture increases slightly Wednesday, as low 70s dew points with scattered showers and isolated storms return to the forecast. Highs each afternoon will reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, but with dew points in the 60s it will be a manageable heat through mid week. Morning lows Monday/Tuesday in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees for inland areas, and low 70s along the coast. |
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