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Topic Title: Check your favorite wave models
Topic Summary: 19th/20th. Possible low East of Bahamas, to Bermuda.
Created On: 04/14/2022 11:07 AM
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 04/14/2022 11:07 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Someone do an ole fashion surf sacrifice also just to be sure....

 04/14/2022 12:02 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 50678
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Looking at long range models they do show a little spinnage but remaining weak for a low to form NE of Bahamas and move towards Bermuda. But, possibly a good NE wind fetch at us near Bermuda. Time will tell. Virtual buoys shows a bump up in swell 19/20/21. Then really long range 23/24th even bigger. Something to keep an eye on. Need surf...


Synopsis for the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas

SYNOPSIS
A shearline will remain nearly stationary along 20N
through Fri night. A band of fresh to strong NE to E winds, with
seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will persist across the waters S of
23N through the upcoming weekend as a high pressure center remains
in the vicinity of Bermuda. A weak cold front will move off the
southeastern U.S. coast Fri morning and become stationary there
Fri night. A sharp trough is expected to develop from the
Windward Passage northward along 73W Mon before low pres develops
along the trough near 28N70W Mon night and shifts NNE.



Atlantic from 27N to 29N between 70W and 74W-
MON NIGHT
NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in E to SE
swell.
 04/14/2022 07:41 PM
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Cole

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Spinning storms already? My homeowner's insurance is already ridiculous, do they really need another excuse to raise my rates?

-------------------------
So long and thanks for all the fish.
 04/15/2022 07:43 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I can't answer the insurance question, but it would be nice if we do get some swell out of this before the summer flat doldrum season.
 04/15/2022 10:24 AM
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ww

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The political question of homeowner insurance is a mess. Legislature was busy with other business. Unfortunately, insurance company payments for storm damage have been rising fast, even in the absence of a really big storm. There's a secondary mess with the big storm that will eventually cause extensive flooding in the Tampa Bay area (my childhood house was in a bad flood area. Water crept across the front yard with just a tropical depression). Lots of people need flood insurance but don't have it. This is more a discussion for the politics forum. We seem to have increased risk of fast-intensifying storms, meaning not much time for prep and having to treat minor storms as if they'll blow up. There's also been some discussion of dropping or de-emphasizing the Saffir-Simpson wind index in favor of pressure. Barometric pressure is an excellent predictor of damage potential. There's also the issue of predicting storm surges, which seems to have gotten more sophisticated recently. Jacksonville is in the odd position of being at low risk of direct hit by hurricanes, but in the rare event of exactly the right storm striking (Hugo, which walloped Charleston SC aimed at JAX before turning northward), NE Florida could have huge storm surges due to the shallow continental shelf.
 04/15/2022 12:21 PM
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Central Floridave

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Seas will be 2 to 3 ft this weekend before seas
build to 5 ft in the offshore waters on Monday, and up to 6 ft on
Tuesday.
 04/15/2022 07:06 PM
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johnnyboy

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It definitely jumped up. Wind will be on it.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 04/18/2022 06:43 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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actually got sum fun clean sliders today @ one of the streets, before hi tide set in lets see what the wind does ...

-------------------------
Ima just island boy, and I'm tryin to make it, Ima island boy

Edited: 04/18/2022 at 06:44 AM by StirfryMcflurry
 04/18/2022 02:35 PM
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seaspray

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Finally got some this afternoon. Chest high, clean, low tide. Had to shake off some cobwebs
 04/19/2022 06:53 AM
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tom

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^Affirm^ And, from the 41009 this morning: 01:50 (AM) the swell arrives at 3.6 and 11 seconds, wind is west at 10. Low tide arrives 04:40. Sunrise occurs at 06:50. Wind at sunrise, North 21 mph gusting to 27. Wind, waves or tide; pick two.

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway
 04/20/2022 08:00 AM
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Central Floridave

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Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
1014 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT


THIS AFTERNOON
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet
with occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds.
Choppy on the intracoastal waters.

TONIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas to 7 feet. A dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on
the intracoastal waters.

THURSDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas to 9 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on
the intracoastal waters.

THURSDAY NIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet
with occasional seas to 9 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal
waters.

FRIDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas to 9 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Slight chance of showers.

FRIDAY NIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas to 9 feet.

SATURDAY
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.

SATURDAY NIGHT
East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet
with occasional seas to 7 feet.

SUNDAY
East winds 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional
seas to 7 feet. Slight chance of showers.
 04/20/2022 09:00 AM
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johnnyboy

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Translated: no beach will be left. You will drop off at A1A directly from a seagrape root ball and paddle past all the sea grapes that fell in.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 04/21/2022 04:01 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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4 /26 and 27 look interestinggggg............ fingers crossed

-------------------------
Ima just island boy, and I'm tryin to make it, Ima island boy
 04/21/2022 04:09 AM
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Central Floridave

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We always have great waves coming on the long range models!
 04/21/2022 01:45 PM
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johnnyboy

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I surfed choppy unconnected peaks in the drift zone. I literally jumped off a seagrape root ball to whats left of the beach to paddle out. I just couldn't get it together. One drop, maybe a turn and then the peak was expired. I saw one of my son's buddies who is in high school with him and he was stoked surfing the inside and thrilled it was at least bigger. He was skipping school for it, which I didnt think was worth it.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 04/21/2022 08:00 PM
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ww

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Shining little bodies of purple people stingers.
 04/22/2022 03:31 AM
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jdbman

Posts: 11750
Joined Forum: 07/28/2003

Wed. 4/27:

2-3ft
Thigh to waist
3-4ft
Waist to chest
Run of ENE swell may begin. Worth watching closely as this timeframe has potential for fun waves.

from Surfline.....

-------------------------
So if you are a surfer I wish you the prosperity that allows you more time to pursue the salt water dream, and the true happiness that comes from warm water, clean waves and the companionship of your fellow surfers. If you are an internet troll just spewing bs then f off.
 04/22/2022 07:16 AM
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johnnyboy

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I feel like it's got to get more organized the way a gambler keeps throwing good money after bad. Maybe.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 04/25/2022 03:44 AM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Joined Forum: 08/17/2016

Originally posted by: Central Floridave We always have great waves coming on the long range models!
& erry once in a while, they actually happen! EDIT just had some chunky fun @ the streets

-------------------------
Ima just island boy, and I'm tryin to make it, Ima island boy

Edited: 04/25/2022 at 01:36 PM by StirfryMcflurry
 04/25/2022 04:30 PM
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surfrc

Posts: 705
Joined Forum: 07/26/2003

Originally posted by: StirfryMcflurry

Originally posted by: Central Floridave

We always have great waves coming on the long range models!


& erry once in a while, they actually happen! EDIT just had some chunky fun @ the streets


Yep, went out at the light, pretty fun today, 3-4 ft. way cleaner and more organized compared to yesterday.
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