Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this
system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of
southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and Belize during the
next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and
the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan
Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas:
A weak surface trough located around 200 miles northeast of the
central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity as it
interacts with an upper-level trough. Surface pressures are
currently high across the area, and significant development of this
system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward
over the next several days away from the southeastern United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2022 is as follows:

Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Alex AL-leks Lisa LEE-suh
Bonnie BAH-nee Martin MAR-tin
Colin KAH-lihn Nicole nih-KOHL
Danielle dan-YELL Owen OH-uhn
Earl URR-ull Paula PAHL-luh
Fiona fee-OH-nuh Richard RIH-churd
Gaston ga-STAWN Shary SHAHR-ee
Hermine her-MEEN Tobias toh-BEE-uss
Ian EE-an Virginie vir-JIN-ee
Julia JOO-lee-uh Walter WALL-tur
Karl KAR-ull

This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes
significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for
tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance
times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT. After the
change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7
AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide
updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances
of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks
will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular
Tropical Weather Outlooks.

A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone
public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and
a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all
ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package
may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected
changes or to modify watches or warnings.

The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of
significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel
watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the
issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates,
which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header
WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5.

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available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. More information
on NHC text products can be found at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml, while more
information about NHC graphical products can be found at
https://www.hurricanes.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml.

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Surf was super fun this Sunday Morning. How long it last, who knows...


Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory. The
aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum
flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant.
However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near
50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be
mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest
convection to the east and northeast of the center. This was
confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700
mb centers were displaced from the surface center.

The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt. A
general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h
or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday.
After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an
eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes
extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex. The
new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the
previous forecast. However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to
the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to
this part of the forecast may be necessary later.

Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h.
After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and
cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
cause Alex to weaken. The cyclone is expected to become
extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h. The new
intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous
forecast.