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Topic Title: Possible strong low pressure off the coast next week March 20th/21'ish.
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Created On: 03/15/2023 06:31 AM
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 03/15/2023 06:31 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52378
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Models hinting at strong low off of N.Fla Monday/Tuesday.

Saturday-Early Next Week...00Z ECMWF has slowed the progress of
the cold front now showing a frontal passage Sat night while the
GFS is faster but also hinting at a slower timing. WOuld not be
surprised if max temps are warmer on Sat than currently forecast,
esp across the south half and a much tighter gradient of PoP may
be needed from north to south. Still show 80 PoP across the north
but southern sections may not see 60-70 percent coverage until Sat
eve/night. Both models continue to stall the front near south
Florida/Straits of Florida on Sunday. With the front then stalled
in the vicinity of the local area, unsettled weather looks to
prevail, with continuing rain chances through early next week.
Models also suggest a low pressure system forming along the
stalled boundary, but disagree on location and timing. The
operational GFS develops low pressure over the central/eastern
Gulf Tue and lifts NE across the FL big bend while the operational
ECMWF develops a weaker low along or just offshore the FL east
coast Mon/Mon night. These two solutions produce very different
scenarios for EC FL. The former would produce a severe threat
while the latter produces cooler/showery weather with less thunder
chances. Suffice to say, confidence in the extended forecast is
lower than usual.
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