Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad surface low centered a couple hundred miles northeast of the
central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily east of its center. Environmental conditions are forecast
to become less favorable, and development of this system is not
expected as it moves generally north-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph
over the southwestern Atlantic during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

847 PM EDT Sun May 21 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will nudge into the Mid- Atlantic States through Monday, with low pressure east of the Bahamas. By the middle of the week, another area of low pressure may form well east of Florida. Onshore winds will increase mid to late week with building seas forecast. An unsettled weather pattern will increase shower and lightning storm chances to well above normal for much of the upcoming week. Some of this activity will be offshore-moving.

Synopsis for the SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas 430 AM EDT Mon May 22 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure 1010 mb near 25N72W will move slowly N through Tue, then interact with a cold front approaching from the NW, and exit the region to the NE Tue night through Wed. Strong SE to S winds and rough seas will prevail east of the low to 65W, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Another cold front and possible low pressure may move offshore NE Florida and impact the far NW waters Thu through Fri.

60 nm
1012 AM EDT Tue May 23 2023

SYNOPSIS
A weak frontal boundary will linger over central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters this afternoon. Weak low pressure is expected to form along this boundary near the central Florida east coast on Wednesday, then lift away from the area late week. Some increase in the north to northeast winds around this departing low will cause seas to build, especially in the Gulf Stream. Rain and thunderstorm chances will remain above normal through the next several days. Some of this activity will be offshore-moving.

20 mile buoy has crept up to 4 feet. The surf was glassy at dawn today but by mid-morn it was 3 feet and choppy.

fyi, 20 mile buoy is reading 5 feet at 10 seconds now (tuesday evening)

WEDNESDAY
North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. A dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

THURSDAY
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 7 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers and chance of thunderstorms.

FRIDAY
North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 9 feet with occasional seas to 11 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.


SATURDAY
North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas to 10 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.


SUNDAY
North winds 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

At the surface,
pressures are forecast to continue falling over central / south
Florida, and by Friday morning a large majority of ensemble members
develop a surface low off the east coast of Florida, slowly moving
NE away from the state.

It appears there are
currently two clusters for timing/track of the potential surface
low, with the GEFS/GFS slightly quicker than the EPS/ECMWF. This
will have implications on wind/rain chances on Friday. As of the 2AM
Wednesday outlook, NHC is not forecasting tropical development with
this feature.

I'll be in South Florida this weekend. Hoping the swell makes it down to the Palm Beaches.

The Wed morning model runs shows the low forming off North Florida and moving into Georgia. A brief spin up of North to NE winds off the Georgia Coast. Hoping that makes it down South as I would love to GET LUCKY and catch it down there by just the odds in my favor...Knock on Wood...

Pm me if you make it to Palm beach. The cove might be the call with all that wind.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

I'll be in Broward for the weekend and driving up to somewhere looking. I know ft Lauderdale never breaks but the swell is looking possibly to hit South Florida on Saturday. Knock on wood.

That might be a bit too far south.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Yes, that is why I say I'll be driving up looking. Driving up like to palm beach. I've never seen Ft. Lauderdale beaches break.

Hope it happens. Probably will be a small window of swell. That low doesn't look to be overwater for very long.

D/P thurs am was worth a paddle, even with the forecasted off-shores blown out by last nights heavy rain and left over fairly strong onshores. Chest to head high with lots of bump but it seemed to be cleaning up a bit as I was leaving (darn it).

D/P Fri way better, N wind held off and it was pretty clean, about chest high with some occasional larger sets. A little inconsistent. Not very crowded. Hope you got some, N winds are here.

A bit of a pitching closeout but not small. I was around long enough to make a few.

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"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

46mph pointing down at us.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#...309/loc=-79.376,31.833

I have a concert in Jacksonville Saturday evening. Volusia looks a bit promising.

11 feet sitting on 20 mile buoy!

i'm not sure why they are not naming this low pressure system. Looks tropical to me. 45mph off of the Carolina coast.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat May 27 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical low pressure system located about 150 miles south
of Charleston, South Carolina, continues to produce gusty
winds and disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of
the southeastern United States and western Atlantic Ocean. This low
is expected to remain a frontal system while it moves northward and
inland over the Carolinas tonight or early Sunday.

Even though development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
not expected, the system will produce gusty winds and dangerous
surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern
United States coast through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is expected in
portions of the Carolinas and Virginia during the next couple of
days. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected over the
coastal and offshore waters where gale and storm warnings are in
effect. For more information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office and high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.