Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...



Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023

Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave (Invest AL95) that
we have been following for several days has become better organized
this morning, with many curved low-level banding features. A
partial scatterometer pass near 1201 UTC indicated a well-defined
center had formed, with winds speeds of about 30 kt. Thus,
advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, and
the current intensity is set to 30 kt.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A
mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to persist to
the north of the tropical cyclone, keeping the system moving with
this general motion through Saturday. The spread in the model
guidance is remarkably low for a first advisory, and the official
forecast is near or west of the model consensus. However, it
should be noted that the NOAA corrected-consensus aids and some
ensemble members are still to the left of the official forecast, so
it is too early to determine exactly how close this system will get
to the Leeward Islands given the average track forecast error at
those time ranges.

The environment around the depression appears to be conducive for
strengthening. The only obvious hindering factor is
light-to-moderate northeasterly shear, which should keep the
intensification rate in check in the short term. However, in two to
three days, this shear is forecast to relax with an upper-level
ridge building near the cyclone, and the system should be moving
over record-warm waters of near 30 deg C east of the Lesser Antilles
(that would look more in place in the Gulf of Mexico). These
factors could support rapid intensification by the end of the week,
although it too early to determine exactly when this might occur
until a better-defined inner core forms. The NHC intensity forecast
is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies
below the intensity consensus. All indications are that the
depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast
period.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by
this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that
time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude
of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor
the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 12.5N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH

Edited: 09/07/2023 at 11:51 AM by Central Floridave

Check your favorite wave models....no buying new boards for next week...

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 09/05/2023 at 11:31 AM by dingpatch

Nice long period yeah?

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There is nothing better than pointing out the shortcomings of others, is there?

'Could" be a high CAT 5 when it gets north of PR Sunday !!

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Dora Hates You

>>. As of this update, the Atlantic basin stands at 12 Storms, 3 Hurricanes and 2 Majors. It's not even September 10th and the basin has nearly reached NOAA's preseason forecast of 12-17 Storms, 5-9 Hurricanes and 1-4 Majors. The East Pac has reached 9 Storms, 6 Hurricanes and 4 Majors, getting close to NOAA's preseason outlook for its entire season of 14-20 Storms, 7-11 Hurricanes and 4-8 Majors.


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Dora Hates You

Waiting on the list of top "analog storms" to 13.

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Dora Hates You

And the remnants of Franklin is still spinning out there. I surfed that swell a week ago!

5pm named

Tropical Storm Lee

Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2023

...LEE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIKELY TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR
HURRICANE BY SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 45.5W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 14.1N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 14.8N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 15.7N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 16.6N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 17.6N 54.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 18.7N 56.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.8N 59.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 21.5N 62.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 22.9N 65.7W 130 KT 150 MPH

Almost on the money to send it through the Providence

Big event for Hatteras to Massachusetts. Looks like it could hit New England.

drop off the key, Lee ... and set yourself free

NWS Melbourne discussion:

Next Week...

Undoubtedly, all eyes will be on Hurricane Lee, which is currently
strengthening on its trek westward across the Tropical Atlantic. The
official forecast track takes the hurricane to major status, north
of Puerto Rico, by Monday night. 06/12Z grand ensemble cluster
analysis is in fairly good agreement with the upper air pattern
across North America through the first half of next week. It is
characterized by high-latitude ridging across north and central
Canada that extends into the Southwestern United States. Downstream
across the Eastern U.S., a broad trough is expected to slowly
migrate from the Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard between Monday
and Thursday. Fortunately for Florida, this pattern is nearly the
opposite of the analog to landfalling hurricanes of the past. In
other words, an East Coast trough configuration similar to the
current forecast, more often than not, tends to cause Atlantic
hurricanes to recurve before reaching our coast. Despite varying
depths to the trough among the ensemble envelope, at this time all
of the clusters show that it will do the trick to cause a gradual
turn north for Lee by Tuesday or Wednesday well to the east of
Florida (likely northeast of 20N/70W).

Now, here is the caveat. Although guidance remains in strong
agreement with this right now, we are still talking about a forecast
6-9 days out. Changes are always possible - and this is a good
reminder that we are in the peak of hurricane season. You should
always have your preparedness plans and supplies in place in the
event a storm threatens us. Visit weather.gov/safety/hurricane-plan.

i.e., "even we don't trust our forecast 6-9 days out..."

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add a signature since I'm here in profile anyway

Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

Lee is rapidly intensifying. Early this morning, a well-defined
low-to mid-level eye was observed in microwave imagery, a signal
that is often a precursor rapid intensification (RI). Since then,
Lee has developed an eye in visible and infrared imagery, with
subjective Dvorak Data-T estimates quickly increasing to as high as
5.5 during the past hour or so. Satellite classifications supported
an intensity of around 80 kt at 1200 UTC, but given the significant
improvement in Lee's appearance since then, the advisory intensity
is set at 90 kt.

The track guidance remains in very good agreement on the forecast
for Lee through the weekend and confidence in the track forecast is
high. Lee should continue west-northwestward, gradually slowing its
forward speed, moving along the southern periphery of a subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. Confidence continues to increase
that Lee will pass north of the northern Leeward Islands, though
swells associated with Lee will affect the islands starting
tomorrow. By the end of the forecast, the uncertainty is a little
higher, with the hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF) generally being
farther south than the global models. Very small changes were made
to the NHC track forecast, which is between the HCCA and simple
consensus aids.

As stated above, RI is occuring, and will likely continue today. The
question doesn't appear to be if RI continues, but rather how
strong Lee will get, and how quickly will it get there. Many of the
models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond
rates normally seen with model forecasts. Both HAFS models forecast
Lee to exceed 150 kt within the next 2 days, and even HCCA brings
the hurricane above the category 5 threshold. The NHC intensity
forecast has been shifted significantly higher, but is actually
within the guidance envelope. It should be stressed that internal
dynamics (eyewall replacement cycles) will become a factor with the
maximum strength of Lee as it becomes a major hurricane. This
is almost certain to lead to fluctuations in intensity that are
beyond our ability to forecast at these lead times. Hurricane Hunter
aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and
overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about
Lee's intensity during the coming days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane later today, with
its core moving north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend and early next week. The
potential for tropical storm conditions to occur in the islands is
decreasing, but residents there should continue to monitor updates
on Lee.

2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the
Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 50.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.1N 51.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 18.2N 54.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 56.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 20.1N 58.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.9N 59.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 21.5N 61.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 22.6N 63.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.6N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky


Edited: 09/07/2023 at 09:05 AM by Central Floridave

woooo.... here we go This one's gonna be the real deal Holyfield!

Edited: 09/07/2023 at 09:07 AM by Plan B

2009 Hurricane Bill super clone in the making taking a similar path.

mp2115, looks likely. Daily swims start now.