The waiting is the hardest part...

There always has to be THAT guy....

I will update in real time to keep an accurate measure.

And yes, I hope I am wrong, but reality is on my side. If it's a Cat 1 or less, we are good. If it's a 2 or beyond, my prediction will be spot on. Way north Brevard? That might be a different story, but you better have your paddle arms prepared.



-------------------------
I was right.

Edited: 08/14/2025 at 06:32 AM by Cole

There's only a few spots that can handle size: Monster Hole and Reef Road are two of them

That paddle at monster hole stays with you. Same with the many men in the gray suits that pop by early and often.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

Agreed that if it is a cat 2+ and a few hundred miles out there will be times of massive 500 yard close outs at most of our popular spots.
But there should be windows when it is good, like when the first swells hit....or after it has passed to our north and we get the favorable angle and maybe good winds.

The 20 mile spectral density chart is a fav indicator. When the frequency gets less than .1 Hz, and the graph cleans up into a single defined peak...that can be some really good surf.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show...=41009&meas=spec&uom=E

If you surf, you gotta be an optimist!


-------------------------
If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV

I don't think I'll ever surf monster hole again but I did surf it tons in the 80s/90s when I was much younger and in great shape. I'd pay you 5 bucks now for a sea-doo to out and even more important IN.

Wow, there were times trying to paddle in was way harder than out.

I'm really looking forward to next week's swell. Good or bad, close out or not. Last week's swell was a good warm up 4me. I put a ding in my board, gotta fix that.

The waiting is....the hardest part....

marine forecast coming in focus for next week. Local wind forecast is of course not accurate, but mucky winds forecast for now. There are small waves today (Friday) 1-2 feet. Looks longboardable.

SUNDAY
Southeast winds around 5 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet. Wave Detail: East 2 feet at 9 seconds.

MONDAY
Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.


TUESDAY
North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

GFS has stiff NNE winds Tuesday and Wednesday during the peak.
It's also predicting a major storm hitting just north of the cape following week, around the 28th.

Edited: 08/15/2025 at 09:31 AM by 3rdworldlover

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025

Erin has become better organized during the past several hours. The
last few NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft passes through the
cyclone have indicated the formation of an eyewall, with the Air
Force Reserve aircraft reporting 700-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt
northeast of the center. In addition, conventional satellite imagery
shows the development of a central dense overcast, and a recently
received WSFM microwave overpass shows a well-defined ring of
shallow to moderate convection in the 37 GHz imagery. Based on
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Erin
becomes the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The initial motion is 290/15. The subtropical ridge to the north
will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward into the weekend.
Encroaching mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a
weakness to develop in the ridge during the latter part of the
forecast period, and this will result in the hurricane gradually
turning northwestward and northward by 120 h. The guidance remains
in fairly good agreement through about 60-72 hours. After that time,
there are some differences in both the forward speed and cross-track
spread with the turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models
again lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope, while the
GFS and Google DeepMind models remain on the eastern edge. Although
still spread, the guidance envelope has not shifted significantly
since the last advisory, and the new track forecast is an update of
the previous forecast. There is still uncertainty about what impacts
Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the
United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening,
although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is
entraining into the core. The improved low-level structure
indicates potential for rapid strengthening, and based on this the
first 36-48 h of the new intensity forecast shows a faster
development rate. After 48 h, the hurricane is forecast to
encounter some northerly to northwesterly vertical shear that should
at least slow development. However, the global and regional
hurricane models are in good agreement that Erin will become a
powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern
Atlantic over the weekend and into next week. It should be noted
that the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC
models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast,
so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than
currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with
landslides or mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of
those islands. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later
in the weekend.

3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing,
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 56.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 18.9N 58.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 19.8N 61.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 20.6N 63.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 21.6N 66.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 22.7N 67.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 23.8N 69.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 26.5N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 30.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

Why is the wind ripping out of the North East if the storm is too far out to influence our weather?

-------------------------
I was right.

^^^ This.

Ill be waiting for the back end of it

-------------------------


Moved on to the NEW IMPROVED 2ND SURFING FORUM

Registration is open- all are welcome- come join us!

A high pressure frontal boundary pushes off the SE coast, keeping the storm from hitting us.
You can thank the democrat weather control machines and chemtrails

>>>> Speaking to Newsweek, Jean-Raymond Bidlot, senior scientist in ocean modeling at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), said: "The latest forecast does indeed indicate that the largest significant wave height could reach values in excess of 50 feet with an associated most likely largest wave of more than 100 feet."

That's...absurd. Of course, 100-footers aren't going to be hitting New Smyrna Beach, up to the Outer Banks, and beyond. But there will be swell, that's for sure. <<<<

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

For cat 5 hurricane floyd the 120 mile buoy read 56 feet before it got ripped off it's mooring.

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
500 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

Erin is rapidly strengthening and is now a category 3 major
hurricane. Satellite images indicate that Erin has a small eye and a
compact and symmetric inner core. The hurricane has also been
maintaining a large area of deep convection to the southwest of the
core, and those outer rainbands are affecting the northern Leeward
Islands. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters departed Erin a few hours
ago, but on their last couple of passes through the center, the
minimum pressure was steadily falling. Since the structure of the
system has notably improved over the past few hours, the initial
intensity is increased to 105 kt, and that could be conservative.
Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating
Erin again later this morning, and that wealth of data will be very
helpful in evaluating the cyclone's intensity and structure.

The system continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest at
about 17 kt on the south side of a subtropical ridge. This overall
motion should continue through the weekend, taking the core of Erin
to the north of the eastern Caribbean Islands through Sunday. After
that time, the western side of the ridge is expected to weaken, due
to a series of shortwave troughs, and that should cause Erin to slow
down and make a gradual turn to the north. The models agree on this
general theme, but there are some differences on where, when, and
how sharply Erin makes the northward turn. The NHC track forecast is
a touch to the left of the previous one to be in better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. Confidence continues to increase
that the core of Erin will pass to the east of the Bahamas and the
United States.

Erin is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over the next 12
hours while it remains in favorable conditions of warm water, low
wind shear, and in an environment of high moisture. Erin will likely
become a Category 4 hurricane later today and strengthening could
continue through tonight. By early next week, however, an increase
in shear should end the strengthening trend and induce gradual
weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies above the guidance for
the first 24 to 36 hours, and then falls near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in
strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next
several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast
to at least double or triple in size, which will result in rough
ocean conditions over the western Atlantic.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rainfall at times through Sunday across the northern
Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to
locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides
or mudslides.

2. Gusts to tropical storm force in Erin's outer rainbands
are possible in portions of the the northern Leeward Islands
later today and over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
tonight and Sunday.

3. Erin is expected to produce dangerous surf and rip currents
along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the
U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week.

4. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of
Erin since there is a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall,
and high surf by the middle part of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 19.8N 61.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 20.3N 63.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 21.1N 65.6W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 22.1N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.3N 68.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 24.6N 69.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 26.2N 70.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 29.9N 70.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 34.7N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$

Long term forecasting is getting odd. GFS and Euro entirely disagree around the 27th; Windy at 10 am Sat is showing a big hurricane hitting Houston. Pretty sure that's not exactly what will happen

Surfline seems to be expecting an Atlantic hurricane, to judge from E wind, not too far offshore, and whopping wave energy on the 27th..

-------------------------
wavewatcher - >ww - >wavewatcher, again

Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...CATEGORY 4 ERIN STILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

From Central Florida Hurricane: Erin may now be a Category 5 hurricane, having undergone completely unforecast Rapid Intensification (RI) overnight, unforeseen by almost all models. However, one Global kept hinting that RI sooner than later ~ along with a more westward track overall ~ was a possibility (ICON).

It is safe to say that there are now some wrinkles in Erin's forecast. Once every so often a hurricane goes wildly off-script. Erin is already there having become this strong, this fast, and tracking south of forecast for eight hours or so now. Forecasts for Erin's strength and importantly track should be taken with a little less certainty this morning, and interests from the Northern Leeward Islands to the east coast of the United States, perhaps particularly the OBX, may want to begin paying much closer attention.

This is a potentially very dangerous hurricane.
Ciel

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

-------------------------
Dora Hates You

Edited: 08/16/2025 at 08:30 AM by dingpatch

Gonna need some CAT 5 wax!

But, I fly to Nashville Tuesday afternoon

-------------------------
Dora Hates You