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Topic Title: Getting warmer, , , , or not
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Created On: 01/05/2020 10:04 AM
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 01/05/2020 10:04 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003



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Dora Hates You
 01/05/2020 10:29 AM
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Cole

Posts: 68175
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

The sun is in neutral and the planet is on fire? Whew, this can't be good.

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I was right.
 01/05/2020 10:51 AM
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wtf

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Skywatch? Really LMFAO. They are baffled at things such as clouds

https://twitter.com/skymednews/status/1213548919734464512

Boomer should stay off the internet...

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QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay
 01/05/2020 12:18 PM
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dingpatch

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Study suggests Modern grand solar minimum in 2020 - 2053

Theoretical astrophysicist Valentina Zharkova, lead author of the study that reproduced the summary curve of solar activity for the last 3 000 years and predicted Modern grand minimum in 2020 - 2055, recently spoke with Jake and Mari of The Grand Solar Minimum YouTube channel, explaining what she and her fellow scientists learned while studying our star. Zharkova holds a BSc/MSc in Applied Mathematics and Astronomy & a Ph.D. in Astrophysics.

While Zharkova is well-accepted scientists who discovered sunquakes and published several papers in Nature, her research that suggests the Sun may soon enter a period of significantly reduced activity received quite a lot of attacks.

However, Zharkova says the facts were right in front of them and that she is quite confident in their results. "In 5 - 10 years we are gonna see who is right," she said. "I'm quite confident what we've done is correct."

The reduced solar activity could possibly cause a mini ice age similar to the Maunder Minimum in just 15 years from now. Their forecasting model has shown to have a 97% accuracy when mapping the past movements of sunspots, using data of solar cycles.

The interview is short and sweet and presents key findings from the study 'without fear mongering and mean spirited remarks toward the warming crowd.' This is what science should be about...



Reference:

"Reinforcing the double dynamo model with solar-terrestrial activity in the past three millennia" - Valentina V. Zharkova et al. - https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.04482.pdf

Abstract

Using a summary curve of two eigen vectors of solar magnetic field oscillations derived with Principal Components Analysis (PCA) from synoptic maps for solar cycles 21-24 as a proxy of solar activity, we extrapolate this curve backwards three millennia revealing 9 grand cycles lasting 350-400 years each. The summary curve shows a remarkable resemblance to the past sunspot and terrestrial activity: grand minima - Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD), Wolf minimum (1280-1350 AD), Oort minimum (1010-1050 AD) and Homer minimum (800-900 BC); grand maxima - modern warm period (1990-2015), medieval warm period (900-1200 AD), Roman warm period (400-10 BC) and others.

We verify the extrapolated activity curve by the pre-telescope observations of large sunspots with naked eye, by comparing the observed and simulated butterfly diagrams for Maunder Minimum (MM), by a maximum of the terrestrial temperature and extremely intense terrestrial auroras seen in the past grand cycle occurred in 14-16 centuries. We confirm the occurrence of upcoming Modern grand minimum in 2020-2053, which will have a shorter duration (3 cycles) and, thus, higher solar activity compared to MM. We argue that Sporer minimum (1450-1550) derived from the increased abundances of isotopes 14C and 10Be is likely produced by a strong increase of the terrestrial background radiation caused by the galactic cosmic rays of powerful supernovae.

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Dora Hates You
 01/05/2020 01:20 PM
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theglide

Posts: 9422
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We're definitely in a minimal sunspot level, the DXing on SSB in non-existent.

I was talking to Europe and Ireland daily a few years back, Australia and others too.

There's not much skip now.

Edited: 01/05/2020 at 01:21 PM by theglide
 01/05/2020 01:48 PM
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pompano

Posts: 5804
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Happy Perihelion day! 1/5/2020. Boy, the sun sure looks large today. I've read her papers. She mentioned in an interview a year or two ago that she does not include global warming effects in them. Don't think she had any updates based on accounting for it, as it is not simple cyclical math.
 01/06/2020 07:08 AM
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Greensleeves

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"and mean spirited remarks toward the warming crowd."

the warming crowd? Did they mean the 97% of scientists that believe global climate change is happening and that we are in imminent danger?

Dingbatch keeps hammering away at his reputation.
 01/06/2020 07:41 AM
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dingpatch

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Well and, , , , regardless of the "It's getting warmer" chants, , , , Valentina Zharkova is very respected. I'm assuming that a general consensus is that unless and until we know more about the current solar minimum cycle, the predicted cooling over the next 50 years will more-or-less blunt, or negate, the current warming trend but, not stop its eventual continuation later in this century. IF this minimum cycle does get as bad as it could be, , , , we re currently upset about a .7 degree C increase, while a very strong minimum cycle could result in a 1 degree C decrease? I'm taking a guess. Bottom line is that the current warming can be seen as a "get used to it" condition, while a strong cooling trend could be rapidly devastating for about 1/3 of the earth's population.

A decent overview

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 01/06/2020 at 07:51 AM by dingpatch
 01/06/2020 07:49 AM
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wtf

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Raise your hand if you know what an EOF is? If so, tell me where you can find that mentioned in the abstract above but said in a different way? My guess is that only someone like scom would know.



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QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay

Edited: 01/06/2020 at 07:50 AM by wtf
 01/06/2020 07:55 AM
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Greensleeves

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"I'm taking a guess. Bottom line is that the current warming can be seen as a "get used to it" condition, while a strong cooling trend could be rapidly devastating for about 1/3 of the earth's population. "

""Get used to it" condition"? Hey everyone lets get used to extinction! That should be easy!
 06/22/2020 07:46 AM
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Pagerow

Posts: 5608
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Yeah, the Arctic just hit 100 deg F.

Butt, nothing to worry about; nothing to see here...

Arctic records its hottest temperature ever

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GOP:

Gaslight
Obstruct
Project

Edited: 06/22/2020 at 08:18 AM by Pagerow
 06/22/2020 07:54 AM
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Cole

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Originally posted by: Pagerow

Yeah, the Arctic just hi 100 deg F.



Butt, nothing to worry about; nothing to see here...



Arctic records its hottest temperature ever


The shit is gonna get real.



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I was right.
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