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Topic Title: Oh boy, this could really cause a surge in diaper sales, , , ,
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Created On: 09/28/2020 03:13 PM
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 09/28/2020 03:13 PM
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dingpatch

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Pelosi warns Democrats the election may be decided by the House - where the GOP holds an edge
Igor Derysh
Mon, September 28, 2020, 12:14 PM EDT

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., warned Democrats that the House of Representatives may have to decide the election winner if neither candidate wins an outright majority in the Electoral College.

The chances that neither President Donald Trump nor Democratic nominee Joe Biden will win at least 270 electoral votes are slim, according to election forecaster FiveThirtyEight, but Pelosi sent a letter to Democratic colleagues on Sunday preparing lawmakers for the possibility that the election may be deadlocked.

If neither candidate wins 270 electoral votes, each state's House delegation would get one vote apiece, meaning that Democrats would not hold an advantage despite holding a 34-seat majority. Republicans currently control 26 delegations while Democrats control 22 delegations. Pennsylvania's delegation is split evenly. Democrats hold a 7-6 edge in Michigan, with Rep. Justin Amash, I-Mich., holding the 14th seat.

"The Constitution says that a candidate must receive a majority of the state delegations to win," Pelosi wrote, according to Politico, which first reported the letter. "We must achieve that majority of delegations or keep the Republicans from doing so."

Pelosi called for Democrats to launch an "all out effort" to capture Republican-led House seats, according to Reuters, "because we cannot leave anything to chance."

Pelosi has "repeatedly" raised the issue with Democratic leaders in recent weeks, according to Politico, and Trump himself has raised the possibility.

"And I don't want to end up in the Supreme Court and I don't want to go back to Congress either, even though we have an advantage if we go back to Congress - does everyone understand that?" Trump said during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. "I think it's 26 to 22 or something because it's counted one vote per state, so we actually have an advantage. Oh, they're going to be thrilled to hear that."

The concern over the possible scenario, which has not happened since 1876, could result in a new focus on House races in Montana and Alaska, which could decide the presidency. The presidential election results are not certified until Congress is sworn in, meaning that Democrats could bolster their count ahead of a possible vote.

Democrats hold a one- or two-seat edge in seven states that are expected to see at least one contested House race. Republicans hold a similar edge in Florida.

Democrats are expected to pick up seats in the Pennsylvania delegation after the state Supreme Court struck down a Republican gerrymander. Michigan is expected to be deadlocked, however, with a Republican expected to win the retiring Amash's red-district seat. That means the Alaska and Montana at-large seats, which are currently held by Republicans, could swing the vote to Democrats if they are able to capture the deep-red seats.

"If Dems hold their delegations, they would have to flip Alaska-AL *OR* Montana-AL for the House to deadlock," tweeted election analyst Daniel Nichanian. "Those 2 races are key."


"We're trying to win every seat in America, but there are obviously some places where a congressional district is even more important than just getting the member into the U.S. House of Representatives," Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md., told Politico.

Politico's Kyle Cheney noted that there could also be a "potential fight" to decide "which members are seated in the case of disputed election results." If House Democrats hold their majority, they could refuse to seat Republican members where election results are in question.

"Early January could be the greatest constitutional clash we've seen in the Trump era," he wrote, "and maybe any modern era."

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Dora Hates You
 09/28/2020 03:28 PM
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theglide

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IMHO, Donald Q's defeat will be of proportions so epic that mail-in ballots won't even matter.

He will be declared the loser on election night.

America has had enough of his chaos.
 09/28/2020 04:05 PM
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tpapablo

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Originally posted by: theglide IMHO, Donald Q's defeat will be of proportions so epic that mail-in ballots won't even matter. He will be declared the loser on election night. America has had enough of his chaos.
Not all of us, Glide. I am of the view that another 4 years of chaos is necessary. So does Rusty, but for different reasons.

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I :heart; Q
 09/28/2020 04:06 PM
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fishkller

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Hey look who came out from under his blanket!

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 09/28/2020 05:10 PM
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RustyTruck

Posts: 33296
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I don't "want" trump to win but that's what I think is going to happen, and I think there could be some good that may come from Americans facing the contradictions that liberals tend to cover up.

However, I wouldn't mind being wrong.

-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
 09/28/2020 06:05 PM
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StirfryMcflurry

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Originally posted by: RustyTruck I don't "want" trump to win but that's what I think is going to happen, and I think there could be some good that may come from Americans facing the contradictions that liberals tend to cover up. However, I wouldn't mind being wrong.
5/5
 09/28/2020 06:45 PM
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surferclimber

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Originally posted by: RustyTruck I don't "want" trump to win but that's what I think is going to happen, and I think there could be some good that may come from Americans facing the contradictions that liberals tend to cover up.
Might be right as the one pole that has been historically right - the one that uses data from primaries not small biased samples - is showing supreme leader Trump winning. It has predicted something like 9 out of the last 10 elections...... IMHO, the outcome of close election, especially perceived extremely small win by biden but not definitive is worst case. As the outcome of that could lead to such a detrimental result that these issues of governing norms or whatnot that everyone seems to love to hate trump for will all of a sudden seem trivial. He says no not conceeding Dec goes by he's still governing while chaos in the streets gets crazy which GOD only knows what could lead to? Martial law, economic uncertainty, etc etc etc

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)

 09/28/2020 11:04 PM
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Cole

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Originally posted by: surferclimber

Originally posted by: RustyTruck

I don't "want" trump to win but that's what I think is going to happen, and I think there could be some good that may come from Americans facing the contradictions that liberals tend to cover up.


Might be right as the one pole that has been historically right - the one that uses data from primaries not small biased samples - is showing supreme leader Trump winning. It has predicted something like 9 out of the last 10 elections......

IMHO, the outcome of close election, especially perceived extremely small win by biden but not definitive is worst case. As the outcome of that could lead to such a detrimental result that these issues of governing norms or whatnot that everyone seems to love to hate trump for will all of a sudden seem trivial. He says no not conceeding Dec goes by he's still governing while chaos in the streets gets crazy which GOD only knows what could lead to? Martial law, economic uncertainty, etc etc etc


Seriously dude, you need to check your information. You said the same thing about the guy that has gotten every election right since Nixon. He says Biden will win. You said he said Trump would win.

In an indecision, the Speaker of the House becomes president.

President Pelosi? Ding, you will need more than diapers. lol


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I was right.

Edited: 09/28/2020 at 11:05 PM by Cole
 09/29/2020 12:01 AM
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Greensleeves

Posts: 20478
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twitler getting his ass kicked everywhere this time. In the courts, media, voter registration, polls, and soon to be in the debates. The election will be anticlimactic.

The stink of desperation in the right is gross. Dopes like surferoldtimer come out to whine about this and that. That particular loser is expecting civil war, chaos in the streets and trash day being missed. Damn, quit listening to your bull$Hit right wind nut sources.
 09/29/2020 06:31 AM
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RustyTruck

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Green, I think you are grossly overestimating Biden, and underestimating what a powerful dictator with armed fanatical supporters and a cooperative Senate and judiciary are capable of.


-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
 09/29/2020 07:12 AM
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dingpatch

Posts: 19032
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Cole,

What kind of "indecision"?

And actually, The Supremes are already conservative enough (without the addition of the FNG) to make a very quick decision. I'm skeptical that it would ever get as far as having the House decide the winner.

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Dora Hates You

Edited: 09/29/2020 at 09:01 AM by dingpatch
 09/29/2020 08:11 AM
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surferclimber

Posts: 1356
Joined Forum: 01/23/2011

Originally posted by: Cole
Originally posted by: surferclimber
Originally posted by: RustyTruck I don't "want" trump to win but that's what I think is going to happen, and I think there could be some good that may come from Americans facing the contradictions that liberals tend to cover up.
Might be right as the one pole that has been historically right - the one that uses data from primaries not small biased samples - is showing supreme leader Trump winning. It has predicted something like 9 out of the last 10 elections...... IMHO, the outcome of close election, especially perceived extremely small win by biden but not definitive is worst case. As the outcome of that could lead to such a detrimental result that these issues of governing norms or whatnot that everyone seems to love to hate trump for will all of a sudden seem trivial. He says no not conceeding Dec goes by he's still governing while chaos in the streets gets crazy which GOD only knows what could lead to? Martial law, economic uncertainty, etc etc etc
Seriously dude, you need to check your information. You said the same thing about the guy that has gotten every election right since Nixon. He says Biden will win. You said he said Trump would win. In an indecision, the Speaker of the House becomes president. President Pelosi? Ding, you will need more than diapers. lol
Not sure who you're talking about, but the pole that uses primary results - the one that university professor cooked up which I believe is a regression model - said Trump wins, they only run it once it doesn't change. And I know what you're saying about the "how it's supposed to play out" with rules & speaker of house if it gets that far, but I'm more concerned about the time during Nov & Dec as that's the time where might things might get a little crazy in the streets. Who knows maybe martial law or maybe just pull out all the law enforcement and let people riot. I was over in Tampa when BLM first got really active, think it was in June, and basically there were a few days where everything north of 4 and east of 275 was a free for all, buildings burning looting etc etc. The cops apparently prevented the rioters from going to the wealthy neighborhoods south and downtown was a clashing area ( I was near downtown, never seen anything like it, businesses boarding up like for a hurricane ). This all happened in 48 hours over a shooting of one man, imagine what it could be if the media announced biden small win & Trump says no not leaving...

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)



Edited: 09/29/2020 at 08:21 AM by surferclimber
 09/29/2020 08:27 AM
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surferclimber

Posts: 1356
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BTW think about the input they give these models? If you know anything about statistics you know the importance of sampling, any result is only as good as the sample given. These models you see on NBC or CBS or wherever are generally taken from a sample of 1,000 or less often just a few hundred and there is just no way they can accurately make a prediction from that. Also, the actual samples they take - often from more urban areas - themselves are often very biased to begin with. Thought we all learned this in 2016. The only model that has shown long term effectiveness is the one I mentioned before the one that uses large data from the primaries! IMHO all of these current polls showing this that or the other are just noise, and only GOD knows what the result of this election will be, and we may find out in Nov and my concern is close or contended....

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get up early and go surf - it'll make that hangover go away and/or make the workday more tolerable :)



Edited: 09/29/2020 at 08:32 AM by surferclimber
 09/29/2020 08:40 AM
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Greensleeves

Posts: 20478
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russki overestimating his propaganda. It's pathetic comrade!

OMG surferwhiner! Dotardsplaining stats!

Edited: 09/29/2020 at 08:42 AM by Greensleeves
 09/29/2020 10:13 AM
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Cole

Posts: 68176
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

the one that university professor cooked up which I believe is a regression model -

http://pollyvote.com/en/compon...s-to-the-white-house/

Professor who accurately predicted every election since 1984 says Biden will beat Trump

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/al...rediction-trump-biden/

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I was right.
 09/29/2020 10:28 AM
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WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

538 forecast got it right in 2016. He saw that late break toward fascism. Nate is not seeing anything changing much yet this time, just looking slightly worse for Donald lately.

Sure some of the sim runs have the lying sack of shit winning, but fewer and fewer.
The recent confirmations that he is broke, in debt and a tax cheat have not factored in yet

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"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill
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