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Topic Title: Polls
Topic Summary: IBD Polls
Created On: 10/20/2020 10:56 AM
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 10/20/2020 10:56 AM
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WG

Posts: 37257
Joined Forum: 03/10/2005

The RCP average has Biden up 8.8%
538 has him up 10.3

But both include both the recent IBD poll that has Biden only up by 3, and Rassmussen that has him up 5.
Both are right leaning (extreme in the IBD editorial case), and have used questionable methods. But Nate rates ABB/TPP as A/B pollsters. His average's include lean factor correcting for bias or poor methods, but then he turns that off and just show the actual number's produced by the pollster.

But the IBD poll got it pretty close to reality near the end last time, Nate Silver's average converged with it in the last week or so to show Hillary winning by only 3% (she won the vote by around 2.1 %, well with MOA)


Democrats need at least 2-4 point national advantage to overcome the current "land over people" bias in the EC.

So what's up?
Are the cons fooling themselves?
Or could we really be close to re-electing a lying sack of shit who has failed so badly, cost us so much? More ineffective minority government?


about 2016



-------------------------
"The truth is incontrovertible.
malice may attack it,
ignorance may deride it,
but in the end,
there it is." -Sir Winston Churchill

Edited: 10/20/2020 at 12:25 PM by WG
 10/20/2020 11:04 AM
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johnnyboy

Posts: 25031
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

We have been here before.

-------------------------

"One of the reasons why propaganda tries to get you to hate government is because it's the one existing institution in which people can participate to some extent and constrain tyrannical unaccountable power." Noam Chomsky.

 10/20/2020 12:34 PM
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Greensleeves

Posts: 20478
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

WG you need to look by state. It ain't that hard to see the end of dotardism is afoot. Twitler is a disaster and after his coming meltdown this Thursday only the most idiotic will continue to support him.
 10/21/2020 08:13 AM
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Cole

Posts: 68111
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

The roid rage will make it interesting, that's for sure.

Not that it matters, everyone has already made their decision.

-------------------------
I was right.
 10/21/2020 08:58 AM
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cheaterfiveo

Posts: 5092
Joined Forum: 08/29/2013

dun dun dun, you girls are giddy with fake info.
 10/21/2020 09:54 AM
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Greensleeves

Posts: 20478
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

beater5 the interminable dunce. Hey beater5 it's not too late for a reset (maybe). Read a book, lay off the sauce. The stink of your stupid wreaks in your posts.
 10/21/2020 10:26 AM
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RustyTruck

Posts: 33242
Joined Forum: 08/02/2004

I'd say it's in the Marge Inovera as they used to say on Car Talk.



-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
 10/27/2020 05:19 PM
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Cole

Posts: 68111
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

IBD - Biden +5.


Heart Research - Biden +11

-------------------------
I was right.

Edited: 10/27/2020 at 05:20 PM by Cole
 10/27/2020 05:42 PM
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RustyTruck

Posts: 33242
Joined Forum: 08/02/2004

7 days

-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
 10/27/2020 05:48 PM
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Bamboo

Posts: 7962
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Remember Hannity's stupid "Stop Obama Express" failure? It is looking like the Stop Trump Express might become the new reality.

I'd say Karma might be a bitch for Hannity, but he will do better if a Dem is in office so he has something else to bitch about for the next four years. He makes out either way.

But I bet Hannity will miss his nightly Trump phone sex...isn't that what his recently divorced wife called it?
That is some weird shit.

-------------------------
If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV
 10/28/2020 05:21 AM
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Cole

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Originally posted by: RustyTruck

7 days






-------------------------
I was right.
 10/28/2020 06:07 AM
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RustyTruck

Posts: 33242
Joined Forum: 08/02/2004

Originally posted by: Cole

Originally posted by: RustyTruck



7 days






The happy times are just around the corner

-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
 10/28/2020 06:14 AM
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Cole

Posts: 68111
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Yang certainly has a better chance at a job in a Biden Administration.

-------------------------
I was right.
 10/28/2020 07:23 AM
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RustyTruck

Posts: 33242
Joined Forum: 08/02/2004

Biden wants republicans in his admin

-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
 10/28/2020 07:39 AM
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Cole

Posts: 68111
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Yes, he is going to keep Barr and Pompeo in their current positions and use one as a henchman and the other as his personal lawyer.

I listened to a preview of who he might tap on NPR the other day and none of them were Republicans.

-------------------------
I was right.
 10/28/2020 07:41 AM
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Cole

Posts: 68111
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But then again, anyone right of Fidel Castro is a Republican to you, so the point is moot.

-------------------------
I was right.
 10/28/2020 07:48 AM
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wtf

Posts: 6945
Joined Forum: 11/23/2005

For those unaware, the IBD/TIPP poll is the one that had trump winning in 2016 by 2%.

Some polls were off in 2016, not all were off. The national polling was on point. The state polling is where things broke down for some. The reason they were off though is not accounting for education - since this was never really an indicator of vote one way or the other - until 2016. Pretty much every poll now has that weight built in this go round, so they are not the same polls as 2016. Anyone who wave hands over polling is ignorant, plain and simple.

The more you know...

-------------------------
QOP = Terrorists
FK = Gay
 10/28/2020 08:21 AM
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Bamboo

Posts: 7962
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

If Trump loses can we play >Trump's Lame Excuses Bingo< for why and how he lost the election?

I say some of the squares should be:
Covid Covid Covid
Fake News Media
Nobody likes me
People love me but the shy voters were too shy
The Proud Boys experienced voter suppression
Deep State operatives spoiled my campaign
I though coke and whores were a legit campaign expense (did you see Donnie Jr on Hannity?? holy cow, he must be on a binge.)
Vote is rigged
Supreme Court isn't supporting me and won't overturn election results
I would have donated 100 million to my campaign if i thought I was going to lose
Those loser military folks didn't vote for me
Obama is why
Hillary is why
Biden is why
Melania didn't vote for me

I'm sure there are dozens more.



-------------------------
If I should ever die, God forbid, let this be my epitaph: THE ONLY PROOF HE NEEDED FOR THE EXISTENCE OF GOD WAS MUSIC - KV
 10/28/2020 08:29 AM
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RustyTruck

Posts: 33242
Joined Forum: 08/02/2004

Originally posted by: Bamboo

If Trump loses can we play >Trump's Lame Excuses Bingo< for why and how he lost the election?



I say some of the squares should be:

Covid Covid Covid

Fake News Media

Nobody likes me

People love me but the shy voters were too shy

The Proud Boys experienced voter suppression

Deep State operatives spoiled my campaign

I though coke and whores were a legit campaign expense (did you see Donnie Jr on Hannity?? holy cow, he must be on a binge.)

Vote is rigged

Supreme Court isn't supporting me and won't overturn election results

I would have donated 100 million to my campaign if i thought I was going to lose

Those loser military folks didn't vote for me

Obama is why

Hillary is why

Biden is why

Melania didn't vote for me



I'm sure there are dozens more.



You can be sure the same game will be played if Biden loses.
SCOTUS, Voter intimidation, Fraud, Russians, Bernie...

-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
 10/28/2020 08:31 AM
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RustyTruck

Posts: 33242
Joined Forum: 08/02/2004

Originally posted by: Cole

Yes, he is going to keep Barr and Pompeo in their current positions and use one as a henchman and the other as his personal lawyer.



I listened to a preview of who he might tap on NPR the other day and none of them were Republicans.


Biden eyes GOP candidates for Cabinet slots

http://www.politico.com/news/2...ublican-cabinet-429972

-------------------------
Capitalism is based on the ridiculous notion that you can enjoy limitless growth in a closed, finite system.

In biology, such behavior of cells is called "cancer".
FORUMS : National Enquirer (FORMERLY NSR) : Polls

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