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Topic Title: Dry season comes early. Topic Summary: Created On: 03/11/2020 08:04 AM |
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05/27/2020 06:56 AM
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On 2nd named storm of the season, and all before June. Bertha soaked us pretty good and looks to get us again this afternoon.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 350 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020 .DISCUSSION... Today-Tonight...The surface trough that brought us heavy rain earlier this week is now located just offshore of the northeast Florida peninsula. This puts central Florida on the ascending side of the trough as prevailing southwest flow continues to advect deep moisture into the area. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will develop this afternoon, with the highest coverage along the coast. Rain chances around 40-50 percent across the far inland areas, and 50-60 percent from Orlando to Lake Okeechobee to the east coast. Storms to first develop along the west coast breeze on the western side of the peninsula, pushing east into our area this afternoon. The east coast sea breeze should be pinned mostly along the coast. This is where the main sea breeze collision will occur leading to the development of numerous thunderstorms. The main threats with these storms being deadly cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and torrential downpours. There is a localized flooding threat in Martin County due to heavy rain that recently fell there. Any heavy rainfall could lead to minor flooding of roads, low-lying areas and poor drainage spots. Southwest flow favors hotter than expected temperatures in our area. Highs this afternoon should reach the low 90s across east central Florida. Would not be surprised to see a few spots reach the mid 90s along the coast if the east coast sea breeze remains pinned. Showers and storms linger into the evening hours before pushing offshore and dissipating. A mostly dry and warm night ahead as overnight lows slightly above normal in the low 70s. Thursday-Friday...Thu...A cutoff Low over the ARKLATEX wl open into a wave form and usher out toward the OH valley by Thu night. Favorable moisture in excess of 1.6 inches. Light winds aloft will lead to sct to nmrs slow moving showers and storms. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a concern due to recent rains. A pattern change Fri due to sfc ridge building in from the Wrn Atlc basin and across the peninsula. Light steering winds should focus inland for development of afternoon storms. Expect sct to numerous slow moving storms once again Fri, with slightly higher coverage inland due to expected boundary interactions during the heat of the day. Weekend...Upr troughing across the Appalachians and SE states will amplify swd, leading to weakening high pressure locally. Westerly winds aloft will favor the eastern side of the peninsula for storm movement and development. Coverage of showers and storms wk be slightly higher than normal due to less convective inhibition overall with temperatures near seasonal normal. Rain chances 50 to 70 percent Sat will reduce a little to around 40-50 pct Sunday. Extended...Into next week, GFS guid continues to indicate modest onshore winds from the Atlc with a deepening Caribbean gyre centered near the Yucatan. EC is not quite into the height fall trend to the south, however a wetter pattern is shown south of the area with a Iso-Sct showers in the form of diurnal increases will be a daily local feature with limited temperature ranges due to marine influence. && .AVIATION... Areas of low stratus and shallow ground fog will produce IFR/LIFR conditions across portions of the area this morning before burning off by late morning. Numerous showers and storms are expected to develop mid to late afternoon with the highest coverage along the coast. TEMPO groups likely to be added for 12Z TAF package at coastal terminals. Storms push offshore and dissipate by this evening with VFR conditions prevailing after. && .MARINE... Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions return to all local waters today as seas diminish further. Southwest winds this morning around 10 knots become south/southeast by this afternoon at 10-15 knots as the sea breeze develops. Seas around 3-4 feet. Numerous thunderstorms will move offshore by mid to late afternoon with the main threats being dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and wind gusts up to 34 knots. Convection moves offshore and dissipates by this evening, though some showers could linger offshore overnight. Late Week/Weekend...High pressure wl begin to establish from the Wrn Atlc basin toward the Gulf of Mex Thu-Fri. Marine conditions should correspondingly improve, with seas diminishing to around 3 ft Thu. Seas thereafter wl average around 3-4 ft into the weekend due to an expected swell component, with an light onshore wind, increasing in the afternoons due to sea breeze development. Extended...Light to gentle onshore winds early next week with seas around 3 ft Mon, increasing to 4 to 6 ft Tue as onshore winds show an increase in gradient. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 89 72 90 73 / 60 40 50 20 MCO 91 73 93 73 / 50 20 60 30 MLB 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 50 20 VRB 90 74 88 73 / 60 40 50 20 LEE 90 74 93 74 / 40 10 70 30 SFB 91 73 93 74 / 60 30 60 30 ORL 91 74 94 74 / 50 20 70 30 FPR 91 72 88 72 / 60 40 50 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. |
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06/02/2020 08:29 AM
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holy rain...I've counted 7 consecutive hours of rain this morning.
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06/05/2020 05:29 AM
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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL 808 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2020 ...May 2020 was Wetter Than Normal with Average Temperatures Near to Above Normal Across East Central Florida... Mostly dry and cooler than normal conditions generally dominated during the first half of May. However, from mid-month onward, rainfall and temperatures increased as surges of tropical moisture lifted northward into the area from areas of low pressure that eventually became Tropical Storm Arthur and Bertha east to northeast of Florida during this time frame. This helped kick off an early start to the wet season across the region, with the wetter pattern during the second half of the month producing rainfall totals that were above to well above normal for May across the area. The warmer and humid conditions largely offset any cooler weather earlier in the month, with average temperatures for May ending up near to slightly above normal. ...Temperatures... A cooler period started off the month, with lows falling into the 50s to low 60s for the first few days of May. A brief warm-up then occurred with Vero Beach breaking their record high on the 5th, reaching 94 degrees that afternoon. A few additional cold fronts then followed, which combined with brief increases in rainfall and cloud cover helped keep daily average temperatures mostly near to below normal for the next several days. On the 10th, record cool highs were actually set at Melbourne and Vero Beach, as temperatures didnt climb out of the mid 70s that day. Temperatures then remained generally near to above normal into the latter half of the month as more humid conditions settled into the region from tropical moisture that was lifted northward from systems that eventually developed into Tropical Cyclones Arthur and Bertha. Several record warm low temperatures were either set or tied across the area from the 14th onward, with lows in the 70s. On May 24th, Vero Beach broke and Fort Pierce tied their warmest minimum temperature records for the month of May, with lows of 79 and 78 degrees respectively. Warmer than normal temperatures during the second half of the month offset any cooler weather during the first half, with average temperature departures for May 2020 ending up near to up to a degree above normal. Leesburg was the only primary climate site to break into the top ten rankings, with an average temperature that tied for 9th warmest for the month of May. Also of note, Melbournes average temperature for May ended up 0.3 degrees below normal. While this is still technically close to their normal value, this is the first time since February 2016 that the monthly average temperature fell below normal at Melbourne, breaking a very long stretch of 50 straight months! Daily Record Temperatures for the Month: Daytona Beach: - No daily temperature records set. Leesburg: - May 24th: Tied record warm low of 75 degrees last set in 1978. - May 25th: Record cool high of 78 degrees. Previous record was 80 degrees last set in 1968. Sanford: - May 16th: Tied record warm low of 72 degrees last set in 1995. - May 18th: Tied record warm low of 73 degrees last set in 2003. - May 24th: Tied record warm low of 73 degrees last set in 2017. - May 25th: Record cool high of 80 degrees. Previous record was 81 degrees last set in 1968. Orlando: - May 16th: Tied record warm low of 73 degrees last set in 1995. - May 24th: Tied record warm low of 75 degrees last set in 2015. Melbourne: - May 24th: Record warm low of 78 degrees. Previous record was 77 degrees last set in 2016. - May 10th: Tied record cool high of 75 degrees last set in 1969. Vero Beach: - May 5th: Record high of 94 degrees. Previous record was 92 degrees last set in 1947. - May 10th: Record cool high of 77 degrees. Previous record was 78 degrees last set in 1984. - May 20th: Tied record high of 93 degrees last set in 1981. - May 24th: Record warm low of 79 degrees. Previous record was 78 degrees last set in 2015. This also tied the warmest minimum temperature on record in May at this site, last set on May 27th, 1991. Fort Pierce: - May 14th: Tied record warm low of 75 degrees last set in 2014. - May 24th: Tied record warm low of 78 degrees last set in 2015. This also tied the warmest minimum temperature on record in May at this site, last set on May 19th, 2017. Average temperatures for May 2020 at the primary climates across east central Florida are as follows (rankings provided if in the top 10): - Daytona Beach had a monthly average temperature of 74.8 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 0.2 degrees below normal. - Leesburg had a monthly average temperature of 78.7 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 1.4 degrees above normal. This ties as the 9th warmest average temperature for May on record at this site, also set during May of 1995, with records extending back to 1958. - Sanford had a monthly average temperature of 77.8 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 0.6 degrees above normal. - Orlando had a monthly average temperature of 78.0 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 0.7 degrees above normal. - Melbourne had a monthly average temperature of 76.0 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 0.3 degrees below normal. - Vero Beach had a monthly average temperature of 77.0 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 0.8 degrees above normal. - Fort Pierce had a monthly average temperature of 76.9 degrees Fahrenheit, which was 0.8 degrees above normal. ...Rainfall... Much of the first half of May was rather dry, with only a slight increase in rainfall on the 10th from scattered showers and storms that developed from a frontal boundary that moved into and stalled across the area. Low pressure that lifted northeast off the southeast coast of Florida toward mid-month, eventually developed into Tropical Storm Arthur offshore of the Florida east coast late on the 16th. This system transported deep tropical moisture northward into the area that increased precipitation, and eventually helped kick off an early start to the wet season on the 21st when numerous strong to severe sea breeze generated storms developed over east central Florida. Some of these storms produced large hail, with a 3-inch diameter hailstone falling in Lake Mary. This tied for largest hailstone to fall in east central Florida since storm records began in 1950. A tropical wave lifted northward and across the area from the 25th through the 26th, and later developed into Tropical Storm Bertha off the coast of South Carolina. This led to a very wet Memorial Day, especially for areas southeast of the I-4 corridor. From the 24th through early morning of the 26th, rainfall totals around 2 to 4 inches occurred across Brevard and Okeechobee counties and much of the inland portions of the Treasure Coast. However, localized higher amounts up to 10 to 14 inches fell across extreme southeast St. Lucie County and along the coast of Martin County. High coverage of showers and storms then persisted into the remainder of the month, continuing the wetter than normal pattern. The increase in rainfall during the second half of the month largely made up monthly precipitation totals that were around 3 to 7 inches across the area, with locally higher amounts up to 10 to 16 inches along the Treasure Coast. These amounts were above to well above normal for the month. Fort Pierce had their 7th highest rainfall total for May on record with 9.08 inches, and Stuart for the second month in the row had their second highest rainfall amount on record, with a total of 14.33 inches. Daily Record Rainfall for the Month: Sanford: - May 21st: Record daily rainfall of 1.62 inches. Previous record was 1.13 inches set in 1966. Vero Beach: - May 25th: Record daily rainfall of 2.85 inches. Previous record was 2.30 inches set in 1973. May 2020 rainfall totals for the primary climate sites across east central Florida are as follows (ranking provided if in the top 10): - Daytona Beach received 3.52 inches of rain for the month, which was 0.39 inches above normal. - Leesburg received 2.72 inches of rain for the month, which was 0.19 inches below normal. - Sanford received 4.36 inches of rain for the month, which was 1.19 inches above normal. - Orlando received 3.85 inches of rain for the month, which was 0.40 inches above normal. - Melbourne received 5.20 inches of rain for the month, which was 1.91 inches above normal. - Vero Beach received 6.53 inches of rain for the month, which was 3.17 inches above normal. - Fort Pierce received 9.08 inches of rain for the month, which was 5.25 inches above normal. This ranks as the 7th highest rainfall total for May on record at this site, with records going back to 1901. Cooperative Observer Station Rainfall Rankings (Note: These totals for May end around 7 AM on the 31st): - Stuart received 14.33 inches of rain for the month, which ranks as the 2nd highest rainfall total for May on record at this site, with records going back to 1935. Below is a list of observed precipitation totals and rainfall statistics for select sites across east central Florida for May 2020: Station May 2020 Normal Departure Percent of Rainfall Rainfall From Normal Normal Daytona Beach 3.52" 3.13" +0.39" 112% (DAB) Orlando 3.85" 3.45" +0.40" 112% (MCO) Melbourne 5.20" 3.29" +1.91" 158% (MLB) Vero Beach 6.53" 3.36" +3.17" 194% (VRB) Leesburg 2.72" 2.91" -0.19" 93% (LEE) DeLand* 5.80" 3.62" +2.18" 160% (DELF1) Sanford 4.36" 3.17" +1.19" 138% (SFB) Titusville* 4.33" 3.05" +1.28" 142% (TITF1) Fort Pierce 9.08" 3.83" +5.25" 237% (FPR) Stuart* 14.33" 5.03" +9.30" 285% (STRF1) *Rainfall totals for the month end around 7 AM on the 31st. |
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06/06/2020 07:43 PM
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D*MN... some intense rain here tonight, just south of St. A beach.... river flowing down the street. I drug my dorian sandbags out. Prob had 2" in an hour
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06/07/2020 11:03 AM
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Shouldn't have to worry about wildfires this summer, after what feels like 2 week straight of rain
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06/08/2020 11:34 AM
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Probably should worry about swarms of mosquito now that it has dried out some and the sun is finally out. Make sure to dump any standing water out from around your yard. Don't give them a home to hatch their larvae.
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06/22/2020 10:51 AM
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I know there has been a lot of rain around me but I've only gotten about half an inch the past two weeks.
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06/24/2020 04:05 AM
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4.89 inches for the month so far at my place in the core 32951.
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06/24/2020 10:39 AM
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Last couple days heavy rain all around my house...I got nada...rain buckets are bone dry.
Oh Rain Gawd....... When you see 90 percent chance of rain, my little black hole is the 10 percent. |
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06/24/2020 10:41 AM
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Yesterday's storm came right at me from the North, then just miraculously scooted around me. Checking the radar it was heavy rain. I'm like WHY?!?
I don't really need the rain all that much, nothing seems stressed out. The high humidity helps keep plants from drying out. But, i like to keep fresh rain on the jaboticaba. They can't dry out at all. |
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07/05/2020 04:40 PM
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July 4: 3.37 inches (at one point it was raining at a rate of 6.3 inches per hour!)
Today: .84 inches so far. |
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07/05/2020 08:08 PM
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Nice!
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Dry season comes early.
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