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Topic Title: Dry season comes early.
Topic Summary:
Created On: 03/11/2020 08:04 AM
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 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 03/11/2020 08:04 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - weldertom2 - 03/11/2020 08:56 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 03/11/2020 06:35 PM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 03/23/2020 07:40 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 04/03/2020 01:48 PM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 04/05/2020 10:26 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 04/05/2020 02:05 PM  
 Dry season comes early.   - ww - 04/06/2020 12:07 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - garcia - 04/06/2020 06:12 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 04/06/2020 07:31 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - KP - 04/08/2020 08:20 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - garcia - 04/08/2020 12:07 PM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 04/09/2020 05:58 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 04/15/2020 08:46 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 04/24/2020 05:06 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 05/01/2020 11:17 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 05/03/2020 05:37 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - SurferMic - 05/07/2020 10:45 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 05/10/2020 05:18 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 05/27/2020 05:29 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 05/27/2020 06:56 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 06/02/2020 08:29 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 06/05/2020 05:29 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Plan B - 06/06/2020 07:43 PM  
 Dry season comes early.   - seaspray - 06/07/2020 11:03 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 06/08/2020 11:34 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 06/22/2020 10:51 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - weldertom2 - 06/24/2020 04:05 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 06/24/2020 10:39 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 06/24/2020 10:41 AM  
 Dry season comes early.   - weldertom2 - 07/05/2020 04:40 PM  
 Dry season comes early.   - Central Floridave - 07/05/2020 08:08 PM  
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 05/27/2020 06:56 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 52251
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

On 2nd named storm of the season, and all before June. Bertha soaked us pretty good and looks to get us again this afternoon.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Today-Tonight...The surface trough that brought us heavy rain
earlier this week is now located just offshore of the northeast
Florida peninsula. This puts central Florida on the ascending side
of the trough as prevailing southwest flow continues to advect deep
moisture into the area. Scattered to numerous showers/storms will
develop this afternoon, with the highest coverage along the coast.
Rain chances around 40-50 percent across the far inland areas, and
50-60 percent from Orlando to Lake Okeechobee to the east coast.

Storms to first develop along the west coast breeze on the western
side of the peninsula, pushing east into our area this afternoon.
The east coast sea breeze should be pinned mostly along the coast.
This is where the main sea breeze collision will occur leading to
the development of numerous thunderstorms. The main threats with
these storms being deadly cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and
torrential downpours. There is a localized flooding threat in Martin
County due to heavy rain that recently fell there. Any heavy
rainfall could lead to minor flooding of roads, low-lying areas and
poor drainage spots.

Southwest flow favors hotter than expected temperatures in our area.
Highs this afternoon should reach the low 90s across east central
Florida. Would not be surprised to see a few spots reach the mid 90s
along the coast if the east coast sea breeze remains pinned. Showers
and storms linger into the evening hours before pushing offshore and
dissipating. A mostly dry and warm night ahead as overnight lows
slightly above normal in the low 70s.

Thursday-Friday...Thu...A cutoff Low over the ARKLATEX wl open
into a wave form and usher out toward the OH valley by Thu night.
Favorable moisture in excess of 1.6 inches. Light winds aloft will
lead to sct to nmrs slow moving showers and storms. Locally heavy
rainfall will remain a concern due to recent rains. A pattern
change Fri due to sfc ridge building in from the Wrn Atlc basin
and across the peninsula. Light steering winds should focus
inland for development of afternoon storms. Expect sct to
numerous slow moving storms once again Fri, with slightly higher
coverage inland due to expected boundary interactions during the
heat of the day.

Weekend...Upr troughing across the Appalachians and SE states will
amplify swd, leading to weakening high pressure locally. Westerly
winds aloft will favor the eastern side of the peninsula for
storm movement and development. Coverage of showers and storms wk
be slightly higher than normal due to less convective inhibition
overall with temperatures near seasonal normal. Rain chances 50 to
70 percent Sat will reduce a little to around 40-50 pct Sunday.

Extended...Into next week, GFS guid continues to indicate modest
onshore winds from the Atlc with a deepening Caribbean gyre
centered near the Yucatan. EC is not quite into the height fall
trend to the south, however a wetter pattern is shown south of
the area with a Iso-Sct showers in the form of diurnal increases
will be a daily local feature with limited temperature ranges due
to marine influence.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of low stratus and shallow ground fog will produce IFR/LIFR
conditions across portions of the area this morning before burning
off by late morning. Numerous showers and storms are expected to
develop mid to late afternoon with the highest coverage along the
coast. TEMPO groups likely to be added for 12Z TAF package at
coastal terminals. Storms push offshore and dissipate by this
evening with VFR conditions prevailing after.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions return to all local
waters today as seas diminish further. Southwest winds this morning
around 10 knots become south/southeast by this afternoon at 10-15
knots as the sea breeze develops. Seas around 3-4 feet. Numerous
thunderstorms will move offshore by mid to late afternoon with the
main threats being dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and
wind gusts up to 34 knots. Convection moves offshore and dissipates
by this evening, though some showers could linger offshore overnight.

Late Week/Weekend...High pressure wl begin to establish from the
Wrn Atlc basin toward the Gulf of Mex Thu-Fri. Marine conditions
should correspondingly improve, with seas diminishing to around 3
ft Thu. Seas thereafter wl average around 3-4 ft into the weekend
due to an expected swell component, with an light onshore wind,
increasing in the afternoons due to sea breeze development.

Extended...Light to gentle onshore winds early next week with seas
around 3 ft Mon, increasing to 4 to 6 ft Tue as onshore winds show
an increase in gradient.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 72 90 73 / 60 40 50 20
MCO 91 73 93 73 / 50 20 60 30
MLB 90 73 88 74 / 60 40 50 20
VRB 90 74 88 73 / 60 40 50 20
LEE 90 74 93 74 / 40 10 70 30
SFB 91 73 93 74 / 60 30 60 30
ORL 91 74 94 74 / 50 20 70 30
FPR 91 72 88 72 / 60 40 50 20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
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