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Topic Title: Christmas day cold
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Created On: 12/21/2020 09:19 AM
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 12/21/2020 09:19 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49255
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

No, not dreaming of a white Christmas!

Thu-Fri...Larger scale pattern over the Conus looks to amplify the
latter half of the week as a cyclone anchored over the Grt Lakes
bring some impressive hght falls south to the Gulf Coast and FL
peninsula. A cold front accompanied by a line of showers and
embedded storms is advertised to approach the peninsula Thu. This
feature is shown by operational GFS/Euro accompanied by
increasing winds, along with the chance of a few strong storms.
Rough timing for active weather appears to be from around mid to
late day Thursday.

Psg of the front late Thursday/Early Friday should bring
significantly cooler air into the area for Christmas day, and
highs are only indicated in the L-M50s On Christmas, to be
followed by temps in the L-M30s Fri night with an added wind chill
component. Headlines for wind chill, and cold temperatures may be
required late this week for this stronger front.


Extended...A chilly weekend will remain in the outlook with a
slow warming trend. Lows early Sun in the U30s to M40s will
moderate into early next week under mostly sunny skies. Highs are
expected to break 70 again by next Mon with dry conditions in
conjunction with the moderating temps.
 12/21/2020 05:19 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49255
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EST Mon Dec 21 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...Strong Storms Possible Thursday into Early Friday...

...Increasing Chances for Coldest Temperatures of Season and
Possible Freeze North of I-4 On Saturday Morning...
 12/23/2020 04:18 AM
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ww

Posts: 15155
Joined Forum: 08/17/2007

Christmas Eve looks like a mess. Reschedule activities for tonight or Friday?
 12/23/2020 08:12 AM
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scombrid

Posts: 16218
Joined Forum: 07/24/2003

Anybody remember Christmas 1989? Rockledge has had West Palm Beach winters for the last 20 years an our landscape looks it. It has been a very long time since we went below 28F at our house. There's a lot of USDA Zone 10+ plants out there. If we ever get a freeze like 1989 or even 1996 (or the type that used to happen here every 2-5 years in the 70s and 80s) then our landscape will be bleak. I think Pindo will be the only one left standing in our front yard.

-------------------------

...

 12/24/2020 06:25 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49255
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Friday night into Saturday morning will be the coldest night of the
season so far, with lows falling into the low 30s for most areas and
the mid 30s along the Treasure Coast. A Freeze Watch has been issued
for Lake and Volusia Counties. A Freeze Warning will likely be
needed further south than this, but these locations have the highest
confidence of seeing temperatures below freezing at this time. A
Wind Chill Advisory may also be needed, as wind chills fall into the
mid 20s from Melbourne northward and the upper 20s along the
Treasure Coast with winds around 5-10mph. Be sure to take
precautions in protecting sensitive plants, pipes, and pets!
 12/24/2020 06:27 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49255
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

I remember Christmas 89. My Satellite beach backyard sprinkler froze over. We went to reef road and surfed some epic waves.
 12/25/2020 06:29 AM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49255
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EST Fri Dec 25 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...It`s Beginning to Feel a Lot Like Christmas(weatherwise)...
...Wind Chill Advisory Early This Morning Osceola/Brevard North...
...Freeze Warning Tonight From Orlando-Cape Canaveral North

Current...Low pressure currently positioned over the NJ/PA area will
lift northward through daybreak. Meanwhile, the associated cold
front will continue to push southward through the local area,
clearing the Treasure Coast early this morning. While the shower
band is still producing gusty conditions as it moves through, the
threat for any higher wind gusts or lightning has diminished.
However, temperatures continue to plummet behind the front. As of
330am, temperatures have fallen into the low to mid 40s from
Melbourne northward. A Wind Chill Advisory is now in effect until
8am.

Today-Tonight...High pressure rapidly building across the Deep
South/northern Gulf Coast today will keep brisk northwest winds in
place today around 10 to 15mph and up to 15 to 20mph at times. With
stout northwesterly flow, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid 50s across much of the area this afternoon. Highs in the low to
mid 50s, except for the immediate and southern Treasure Coast, which
will stretch into the upper 50s. This will make for a chilly
Christmas Day, likely the coldest since the mid 1990s! Dry
conditions developing and clearing skies behind the FROPA, with
PWATs falling to as low as 0.2-0.25" this afternoon.

Not only will it be a brisk afternoon, tonight will also be the
coldest night of the season so far under clear skies. Previous
Freeze Watches for Lake and Volusia Counties have been upgraded to
Freeze Warnings, as temperatures are expected to fall to as low as
the upper 20s for around 5 to 7 hours. Additionally, Freeze Warnings
have been posted for Orange, Seminole, and northern Brevard
Counties, as temperatures in the low 30s are expected for around 4
to 6 hours. Near freezing temperatures will be possible as far south
as northern Okeechobee County; however, timing of the coldest
temperatures looks to be slightly less than the necessary 2 hours.
This will be monitored for future updates. Patchy frost will be
possible in prone areas, but with very dry conditions and forecast
winds largely remaining above 5mph, will forgo mention of it in the
forecast at this time. Next, wind chills as low as the mid 20s are
expected overnight, with upper 20s along the Treasure Coast. While
winds will likely be too high for mentionable frost, currently they
are not forecast to be high enough for a Wind Chill Advisory.
Nonetheless, temperatures will be well below normal and those with
sensitive plants, pets, and pipes should take the necessary steps to
protect them from freezing temperatures.

This weekend...A lingering broad short wave trough will drop SE
across the SE CONUS, GOMEX and Florida Sat-Sun. At the surface,
strong high pressure over the SE CONUS will build NE along the
eastern U.S. seaboard and into the western Atlantic. Global model
guidance unanimous in showing the mid level short wave inducing a
weak inverted trough along the SEFL coast Sat night through Sun
night, which may enhance shallow moisture/convergence enough to
produce a few light rain showers near its axis. Have split the
difference between the lower NBM/higher Superblend POPs, showing a
slight chance for showers along the Treasure Coast Sat night-Sun,
and as far north as the Cape Sun night.

After a frigid start to Sat, max temps will only reach the L-M50s
north-central and U50s-60F along the Treasure Coast. Wide range in
mins Sat night, ranging from near 335F north interior to L50s for
coastal Martin County. A few spots near Lake George-Ocala Forest
could briefly reach close to freezing again. Onshore NE-ENE flow Sun
will result in much warmer/milder temps, with maxes 65-70F and mins
ranging from M-U40s NW of I-4 to M-U50s along the Treasure Coast.

Next Week...Mid level short wave ridge will build from the GOMEX
across the SE CONUS and Florida through mid week, followed by
another strong short wave trough passage late Thu. At the surface,
the post-frontal high NE of Florida Mon will get reinforced by
another strong surface high Tue-Tue night, which keeps moderate
onshore flow and mild/warming temps in place. The high moves east
Wed, leading to a an even warmer day-night, with breezy southerly
flow ahead of the next strong cold front, progged to pass through
ECFL Thu (ECM) or Thu night (GFS/CMC). There is the potential for
thunderstorms ahead of this next front as well.

Assuming the forecast comes to fruition, warming trend will result
in increasingly above normal temps through Thu, followed by cooler
weather to start off 2021.

Happy Holidays to all!
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