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Topic Title: Feb 1 cold start of month
Topic Summary: Check forecast. upper 30s for a Low.
Created On: 02/01/2021 09:20 AM
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 02/01/2021 09:20 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Plus windy.
 02/03/2021 09:36 AM
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inletbum

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Joined Forum: 10/24/2006

I have been readng the long range forecast (one or two months in advance) and they seemed to have realled missed the mark this year. I understand it is difficult to foreast weather a week in advance much less months, but The intial forecast said there was a high probability of above normal temps this winter and the revised long range reienforced that statement.

While we haven't had extreme cold this year, on the Space Coast, it has been a while since we have had so many nights in the low 40s.

God, I hope this weather changes soon. My tropical palms and plants are taking a beating.

Hopefully, they make it to spring.
 02/03/2021 12:10 PM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

After one more night of cold temps it looks like we will have warmer weather for a couple weeks. Plus rain chances. No freezes so far in my backyard. Only thing that got nipped back from the cold was a couple copper leafs. No biggie.
 02/03/2021 01:45 PM
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Central Floridave

Posts: 49727
Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
334 PM EST Wed Feb 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Freezing Temperatures Likely In Some Areas Tonight...
...Patchy to Areas of Frost Expected across Much of ECFL Overnight...

Current-Tonight...Dry, clear skies, light NW winds, and unseasonably
cool conditions this afternoon. Surface high pressure will build
over the area tonight. This scenario usually produces the coldest
temperatures for ECFL following a strong frontal passage as the
airmass will be extremely dry and winds light to calm.
Optimal/strong radiational cooling will take place overnight. So,
tonight should be the coldest night of the week, but without any
cold wind chills that we have recently observed. Any saving grace
from falling temperatures late tonight might be some encroaching
cirrus from the northwest, which may not arrive (if at all) until a
few hours ahead of sunrise and first across the I-4 corridor. It
will also depend on how thick this cloud layer is.

We continue the "Freeze Warning" for counties along/north of I-4 to
include north Brevard County. Temps are forecast to drop to at least
31F-32F for two hours or more over these areas. The urban Orlando
corridor along I-4 will not freeze. The coldest temperatures are
expected in suburban, rural, and traditionally colder locations. In
coordination with neighboring offices, will NOT upgrade the "Freeze
Watch" south of I-4, but instead issue a "Frost Advisory" as
temperatures are generally forecast for 33F-37F here, perhaps even
touch 32F for up to one hour. Only question remains will there be
enough moisture in the low-levels for "Areas of Frost" to be
realized. Further west from the coast will have the highest relative
humidity values late overnight for frost formation.

Temperatures quickly drop in the 40s after sunset, eventually
bottoming out in the lower to middle 30s overnight almost areawide,
except mid/upper 30s in eastern Martin County. Barrier islands from
the Cape southward should remain out of any freeze threat.

Protective actions should be taken to prevent freeze and frost
damage to sensitive plants and other vegetation, as well as to
outdoor pets and sensitive persons. Cold weather shelters are open
in many communities. Check with local county emergency management
for locations and operating hours of shelters. Be extra cautious if
using space heaters and keep them well away from combustible
material such as pillows, blankets, and curtains.

Thu...After another cold and crisp morning, surface high pressure
will push eastward away from the FL peninsula and into the western
Atlc. Morning winds will remain L/V to calm, but eventually swing
around to southerly across ECFL. Wind speeds will generally be less
than 10 mph. There should be ample sunshine, but may be filtered out
from time to time with some passing high clouds as the low levels
remain fairly dry. Max temps will reach the M-U 60s. Not as cold Thu
night as winds turn southwest. No frost or freeze concerns as min
temps hold in the 40s.

Fri-Wed (previous discussion modified)...Breezy SW winds are
expected to develop on Fri ahead of a frontal boundary that will be
pushing across the deep south. This front will slow down as it
approaches FL since the attendant shortwave energy lifts well
northeast. So this weak front will stall across central FL on Sat.
There should be enough moisture to produce isolated to scattered
showers starting Fri night-Sat. Another shortwave trough is forecast
to scoot E/NE across the deep south Sat night and Sun on the
southern edge of a deep longwave trough over the central and eastern
US. This should induce weak low pressure along the stalled boundary
and enhance the mid/upper SW flow leading to potential for a few
strong storms Sat night or Sun. Rain chances on Sat will be 30-50
percent, on Sat night 40-60 percent and 50-75 percent Sunday and
with slight changes of lightning storms Sat night into Sunday.

The front should get nudged south of the area but may return
northward early next week. This depends on the timing and magnitude
of low amplitude shortwave troughs racing through the fast flow
aloft. Despite the low confidence, it does appear that moisture will
not get scoured out so have kept a small shower chance Mon-Tue and
for Wednesday decreasing from south to north as the front lifts.

Temps will continue a warming trend, reaching the mid to upper 70s
on Friday. Into the weekend, temps then generally remain in the 70s
with near 80F across the south both days. Increasing clouds and
chance for showers should keep northern sections in the lower 70s.
It will turn cooler into Sun night but with the front still just
north of the area, highs during the day will climb to the 70s for
the first 2 days of the work week. Mid 70s to near 80 for highs on
Wed.
 02/04/2021 05:09 AM
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Central Floridave

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Joined Forum: 07/22/2003

Friend reported frost in Titusville.
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