long way out in time, but forecasted temps are showing to drop into the 30s a couple days before Christmas. It's been a long time since a Christmas freeze. Luckily the forecast also shows it not lasting but a couple days and nothing near the freezing mark. 38F though is cold enough to kill true tropical plants.

34F forecasted for the low in Cocoa on the 22nd. Lets see how the forecast models handle this. It dropped 4 degrees since I posted this.

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
505 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Progressive Weather Pattern Continuing into the Holiday
Week...

...Coldest Air of the Season Expected by Late Week...
Thursday-Saturday... But wait, there`s more! An anonymously deep
trough (near the climatological min) is expected to dig
southeastward across the central and eastern CONUS mid-to-late
week. While guidance is in decent agreement that the coldest air
of the season is on the way behind a strong cold front that is
projected to sag southeast across central Florida Thursday into
Friday, model discrepancies still exist as far as timing, as well
as the coverage of showers and storms. The CMC and ECMWF display
a faster and drier solution, while the GFS shows a slower low
pressure system with high POPs. Therefore, a blend of the
NBM/CONSALL seems appropriate for late-week given the uncertainty
in the model guidance with isolated to scattered coverage of
showers/storms forecast Thursday into Friday.

With that said, it appears increasingly likely (moderate
confidence) that east central Florida may reach Wind Chill
Advisory Criteria, as well as Freeze Warning criteria by
Christmas Eve morning. Expect high temperatures to drop from the
70s on Thursday, to the mid 60s and mid 70s behind the front on
Friday, before dropping into the upper 40s to near 60 degrees on Saturday.
Low temperatures will drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s with the
mid 20s to mid 30s (~40 degrees near the Treasure coast) behind
the front.

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
455 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022

.DISCUSSION...

......Coldest Air of the Season Arrives Friday Night and Continues
Through Christmas Weekend and Into Monday...

...Freezing Temperatures Expected For at Least the North and
Central With Very Low Wind Chills Areawide...

Friday-Monday...Arctic front blasts SE-ward through the CWA by
the afternoon, with early high temps turning sharply colder,
and continuing to plunge overnight, and not rebounding very
much both Sat and Sun mornings (U40s north, L-M50s south). Based
on the latest guidance which has trended colder, freezing temps
are now likely for the northern half CWA Sat-Sun mornings. and
over the far north Mon morning. However, It is interesting to note
that the Statistical (MOS) guidance has trended several degrees
colder since yesterday, with 20s and L30s forecast across a larger
portion of the CWA both mornings, with L20s forecast across the
far north Sat morning and M-U20s there Sun morning. Thus it is
possible that these temps may need to be adjusted downward over
the next couple days.

Low wind chills will also pose a significant concern during the
holiday weekend with NW-N winds winds around 10 mph producing
minimum WCIs in the L20s north to U20s-L30s south both mornings.
Residents and visitors need to prepare to protect themselves and
their pets and property from the cold temps and wind chills.
Make sure you dress appropriately for the cold, using layered
clothing, including a hat, cloves and a scarf! Bring your pets
indoors, and ensure that outdoor plants are also brought indoors
or covered!

A slight rebound in temps Mon with maxes in the 50s-L60s and mins
in the U30s and 40s.

I'm dreaming of a White Christmas....

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Arctic Airmass Arrives Late Friday and Continues Through
Christmas Weekend and Monday...

...Freezing or Near Freezing Temperatures Expected Saturday
and Sunday Mornings With Very Low Wind Chills...


Thursday...On Thursday, the cold front escorting the Arctic blast to
most of the US arrives on the doorstep of Florida, announcing its
arrival with increased rain chances. After lingering fog lifts by
mid morning, isolated to scattered showers will increase in
coverage, initially north of I-4 then expanding southward into the
afternoon. Luckily there remains no severe weather threat with this
boundary compared to last week`s cold front, however heavy downpours
and a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out which would be more
favored in the afternoon hours. Enjoy the Florida warmth while you
can, as highs will still climb to the 70s tomorrow.

Thursday Night-Saturday (modified previous)...This afternoon`s 12z
guidance shows no significant change to the synoptic setup ahead
of and during the FROPA Thursday night into Friday. Pre-frontal
temps will be warmest across the southern half of the area Friday
afternoon. Max/min temps and wind chills from Fri night onward are
pretty much on top of the previous package.

As a reminder to our users, Freeze and Hard Freeze Watches are
usually issued out to the "3rd (12-hour) period" of the forecast
cycle and out through "4th period" for higher confidence events
(such as this one). This means that the earliest that ECFL could
have Watches issued for Friday Night would be early tomorrow morning
(24 hours later for Saturday night). Wind Chill Watches are issued
when "Wind Chill Warning" criteria (15F or less north/ 20F or less
central and south for 3hr+ with 10mph winds) are possible. They are
a rare issuance for ECFL and are unlikely to be issued for this
event, since the current forecast calls for "Wind Chill Advisory"
criteria (30F or less north/35F or less central and south for 3hr+
with 10 mph winds) to be met.

Regardless, freezing temps/low wind chills pose a significant
concern during the upcoming holiday weekend, especially Sat/Sun
mornings. Residents and visitors will need to prepare to protect
themselves and their pets and property from the cold temps and wind
chills. Make sure you dress appropriately for the cold, using
layered clothing, including a hat, gloves and a scarf! Bring your
pets indoors, and ensure that outdoor plants are also brought
indoors or covered!

Looking very cold, hopefully no plant damage.

I brought in my potted plants yesterday and went around and kissed my heliconias and bananas goodbye. I expect they will need cutting to the ground in a month or so and then they will come back in May or so.

As of 630 AM, temperatures had fallen to 32F or less across many part of east central Florida, including Orlando, Sanford, Daytona Beach, Leesburg, and Titusville. Temperatures were just above freezing south of Orlando and Titusville, increasing to the upper 30s near Lake Okeechobee and around 40 along the Treasure Coast.It won't warm up much today, with highs only getting into the mid 40s up north, and around 50 to the south, despite the mostly clear skies. There will be a moderate breeze through the day, then winds become more gentle in the evening. While tonight's temperatures will be about the same as last night's (a little cooler in places), cold and freezing temperatures will last longer, making tonight technically the coldest night of the Arctic air outbreak. Be sure to keep "The 4 P's" warm: people, pets, plants, and pipes!Tonight into Sunday morning, a Hard Freeze Warning has issued for northern Lake and Inland Volusia counties, and a Freeze warning has been issued for most of the rest of east central Florida.In addition to the cold, there is a High Risk of life threatening rip currents at all central Florida Atlantic beaches, and poor to hazardous boating conditions across the local Atlantic waters.

I didn't protect anything last night as my low only got to 38F. Tonight though I'm protecting orchids, christmas cactus (beautiful bloom right now), and maybe a small palm or two.

Tonight...The potential is there for this upcoming night to be
colder than the previous (longer duration for freezing temps),
thanks in part to very little recovery in temperatures this past
day. The fly in the ointment could be the (mid-high) cloud cover
which will be thickest further south of Orlando. This could create a
sharp contrast in realized temps. However, computer models continue
to suggest a very cold night with overnight lows in the M-U20s,
north of I-4 for 2-4 hrs, capable of killing sensitive vegetation. A
Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for north Lake County and
interior Volusia County. Southward, near 30 to M30s are forecast. A
Freeze Warning will be in effect, again overnight, for Coastal
Volusia, Seminole, Orange, south Lake, Osceola, Okeechobee, most of
Brevard, and areas west of I-95 in rural Indian River County.
Outside of this Freeze Warning (southward) expect min temps in the M-
U30s, except L-M40s near the immediate coast/adjacent barrier
islands. The pressure gradient will be weaker overall on this night,
so we are holding off on issuance of a Wind Chill Advisory. Just
note, that even with the winds less than 10 mph, the wind chills
will be up to a few degrees cooler than the observed temperature.

Got down to 34 here near Pineda/Wickham area. I have veggies growing on the porch, eggplant, tomato, jalapeno, all in giant pots that I moved to the garage. Along with all the potted palms on the porch. Went ahead and used the frost cloth on a large patch of Blue Hawaii elephant ear out front. Also tented a small coconut palm and a couple small red feather palms. Everything else is way to big to cover. forecast 32 for an hour or two tonight...

XUS62 KMLB 252050
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 PM EST Sun Dec 25 2022

.DISCUSSION...

A Christmas surprise late this morning as a band of showers
developed over NE Osceola county and streaked E/NE across central
Brevard county. These were no ordinary showers, however. Due to
evaporative cooling aloft as the precip fell through the dry
airmass, and cold temps in the mid 30s at the surface, the precip
fell as a wintry mix of sleet, graupel and likely some snow
flurries too. The entire event was brief, occurring between
930-11am, with no significant accumulation or hazard to the
public.

That was really cool. Heard it before we saw it. Had Christmas music playing and all of a sudden it sounded like static coming through the speakers. What's that noise? Wife saw it hitting my pond and said it's raining. Soon as she said that I knew we were in for a treat. Tiny ice pellets which got small enough to actually mix in some flakes. Kept up for almost a half hour. It ran down the sloped top of my screen enclosure and actually built up into a 2-3" inch ridge of "snow" along the roof line. Was cold enough to last up there for over an hour before melting. Got some really neat videos and photos.

Meanwhile, back to the 70s...