Even my drought tolerant plants are wilting. Sucks. Need rain.


Hope:
...Strong to Severe Storms Forecast Late Wednesday Morning into
the Afternoon...

Hot and dry now. Humidity low. Hopefully some rain on Monday.

dry as dry can be. even drought tolerant plants showing stress.

Only the toughest is going to survive this drought.

Forecast for Days 3 through 5...

.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight chance
of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Chance of rain 50 percent. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the
upper 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. Northwest winds 10 to
15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper
80s. North winds around 10 mph.

Brevard County burn ban kicks in as drought and heat index climb
Jim Waymer
Florida Today

Better not burn trash or light a bonfire this week. Brevard County's burn ban just took effect.

The ban on bonfires, campfires, trash burning and other forms of open burning took effect Wednesday, as drought conditions increase the risk of wildfires and temperatures are expected to top 95 degrees Thursday and Friday.

Violators of Brevard's burn ban are subject to up to 60 days in jail and a fine of up to $500.

The burn ban does not include state-permitted burns, the use of barbecue grills, authorized public fireworks displays and fireworks sales, which are authorized by state law, a county press release said.What makes the burn ban kick in

The burn ban kicks in as the Keetch-Byram Drought Index - a key measure of fire risk - this week topped 500 (out of a scale of 800), due to the dry conditions and little rain in the forecast. Under a county ordinance approved in 2017, the burn ban automatically goes into effect when the index averages 500 or higher.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 425 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:
-Unusually hot today; breezy with critical fire weather
conditions for the Treasure Coast and Lake Okeechobee region.

-One or two strong storms possible today and this evening, mainly
north of Kissimmee to Melbourne, as a cold front approaches.

-Increasing potential for much-needed rain next week, but this may
be accompanied with a threat for strong to severe storms.

Today-Tonight...A very tricky forecast for the next 24 hours,
especially in regards to rain chances and stronger storm potential.
Passing mid-level disturbance across the southeast U.S. today,
should continue to fuel a MCS north of the area that will drop
toward north central FL later this morning into the early afternoon.
The HRRR has been the most robust with this convection across
northern portions of east central FL, but recent runs of this model
have trended downward with coverage with this activity as it nears
Lake and Volusia counties. An outflow boundary from this system
looks to enter into the area and stall and could be focus for
additional shower/storm development across northern portions of
east central FL later into the afternoon, with any additional
storms shifting quickly offshore. One final round of showers and
storms will then be possible along the cold front that will drop
southward into central FL this evening and overnight. Rain chances
range from 20-40 percent from Orlando area to the Cape northward
today and also have slight chance PoPs along along the coast from
southern Brevard and Indian River counties. Into tonight, rain
chances range from 30- 40 percent from Orlando to Cape northward
and 20 percent to the south.

A conditional threat for strong to isolated severe storms will exist
with any storms that develop today into tonight across northern
portions of east central Florida. Sufficient instability (SBCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg), cooler temps aloft of -9 to -10C at 500mb, and
increasing westerly flow up to 35-40 knots at 850-700mb will
allow any storms that develop to have the potential to produce
strong wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and small hail. However, an
isolated threat for locally damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
quarter sized hail will also exist. SPC has a Slight Risk
extending southward into northern Lake and Volusia counties, with
a Marginal Risk southward toward a Melbourne to Lake Kissimmee
line.

It will be another hot day across the area, with breezy W/SW winds
this afternoon. Highs are forecast to reach near record values, in
the mid to upper 90s over much of the area, except low 90s across
northern portions of Lake and Volusia counties. A drier airmass will
keep maximum heat index values limited to around 98-103 degrees,
which is below heat advisory criteria (heat index values of 108+).
However, this level of heat for this time of year will affect anyone
working outside and/or those in direct sunlight for extended periods
of time. Remember to take frequent breaks and stay hydrated,
especially if you are spending extended periods outside this
afternoon. Temperatures drop into the 80s this evening, with
overnight lows falling to the low to mid 70s as a weakening cold
front begins to move southward across the area.

Synoptic Overview For Saturday Through Next Friday...

This weekend, a trough will reside across the Northeast U.S. Its
attendant cold front will slip southward toward South Florida on
Saturday, and high pressure will quickly follow behind. Shortwave
ridging will slide across the Gulf on Sunday before pushing into the
Atlantic by late Monday. By Tuesday, yet another trough will move
into the Mississippi Valley. In response, southerly flow will become
reestablished early in the work week, surging warm and moist air
northward. The interaction of this warm, humid air mass with the
perturbations within the trough should promote rounds of showers and
storms along the Gulf Coast and portions of Florida during the
early/middle parts of the week. Once this trough exits, ensemble
guidance then suggests that mid-level ridging will amplify from the
Bay of Campeche to the Bahamas late next week. Within this pattern,
the primary concerns will be the potential for strong storms and
periods of well-above-normal temperatures.

Sensible Weather & Impacts:

This Weekend...

We will wake up early Saturday with a cold front moving southward
through the peninsula. The timing and positioning of this boundary
will be dictated by not only its parent trough but also earlier MCS
activity and outflow boundaries. Statistical guidance hangs onto 20-
30% chances for showers and storms mainly for the Treasure Coast &
Okeechobee areas on Saturday. The primary threat from any storm that
manages to form would be gusty winds of 40-50 mph. Drier air will
quickly filter across the rest of the area, with dew points dropping
to the upper 50s to mid 60s. It will still be warm to hot, with
highs 85-88 along the coast warming to the low 90s near Orlando and
mid 90s down close to Lake O. Sunday starts "cooler" with 60s in
most places, but by afternoon similar temperatures to Saturday are
forecast. Sunday should be rain-free as the relatively dry air holds
sway for one more day.

Monday-Wednesday...

This continues to shape up as our most active stretch of weather.
09/12Z ensemble cluster guidance continues to indicate improving
confidence in the timing of the next trough emanating from the
Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Over 75% of members are now
linked up with impacts for at least the northern half of Florida.
There appear to be multiple opportunities for showers and storms.
While this is needed rain, some storms could turn strong to severe.

On Monday, southeasterly flow sets up ahead of the feature, dragging
in higher Theta-E values. Guidance thinks this is sufficient to
allow widely scattered afternoon showers and storms to develop.
There is a non-zero strong/severe storm threat as early as Monday:
CAPE weak to moderate at best (500-1500 J/kg), but shear values will
be increasing due to a backed profile in the boundary layer and a
strengthening subtropical jet. The primary hazards here appear to be
gusty winds and perhaps one or two tornadoes. Highs on Monday will
climb to the mid/upper 80s on the coast to the low 90s interior.

From Monday night into Tuesday, disturbances within the base of the
shortwave trough are likely to spawn rounds of showers and storms
along the I-10 corridor, perhaps in the form of strong MCS/QLCS
segments. One or more of these features could turn toward our
forecast area as they hug any theta-E gradients. With the mass
response expected ahead of this trough, both thermodynamic and
kinematic indicators look to become more favorable for severe
weather. The EPS CAPE & CAPE/SHEAR EFIs continue to increase during
this period, from 0.7 to 0.9 with some shift-of-tails indicating a
potentially volatile parameter space for storm sustenance. Depending
on the timing, all hazards, including large hail, could be on the
table during this period. These threats will likely increase as one
travels northward across our district. Integrated vapor transport
values are projected to exceed the 99th percentile across much of
the area, so any training storms would pose a localized flooding
threat as well.

The wind profiles become increasingly unidirectional from late
Tuesday into Wednesday as the shortwave moves to our northeast.
While its front is not expected to get down here, multiple outflow
boundaries beneath an active subtropical jet could yield additional
rounds of showers and storms into Wednesday. Severe weather will
remain possible.

One reminder: while the broad strokes of this pattern currently look
concerning, we are several days out and a lot can (and will) change.
We will keep you up to date on the forecast as we fine-tune the
details.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, upper 80s are forecast north of I-4 with
low 90s from Orlando to the Space Coast. The boundary layer will
remain warmer than normal, with some potential for heat impacts over
areas that remain unimpeded by rain and storms. The Treasure Coast
and Lake O region could end up hotter, in the mid 90s.

Thursday-Next Friday...

As mentioned before, guidance shows no clear-cut frontal passage
with the mid-week disturbance, leaving warm and humid air in place.
We should hang onto a southerly wind component later next week as
heights build ahead of another trough up across the Plains. A few
mainly diurnally-driven storms remain possible each day. Anomalously
warm H85 T`s are forecast by NAEFS members to exceed the 95th
percentile of climatology. Unsurprisingly, statistical guidance
shows widespread 90s late next week, perhaps closing in on the
extent of heat we`re feeling right now.

A very strong storm moved from Orlando to the South of me thru to Melbourne last night 3am to 430am. Just missed my yard. Got woken up by thunder rattling the house, but my early morning rain dance failed to get any moisture in the yard. Maybe I shouldn't watch the dopplar radar so intensely and wonder why that thunderstorm just missed. Oh well. Maybe next week!

Another early afternoon (Tuesday) storm front missed me...again... ugh...

Wed May 15 12:30 pm, Sebastian's getting poured on. Looks promising for the rest of the afternoon.

12:53 to 1:53, Vero got 1.9" at the airport.

I have since gotten a couple rain falls and are good for another two weeks. Seems like the rainy season wanted to kick in early this year.

A delayed C.Fla rainy season. I"m ready for rainy season. Jaboticaba are in full fruit right now. :


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

- Sensitive fire weather conditions continue, with a moderate
drought

- Shower and storm chances increase mid to late week, with
isolated strong storms possible Thursday

- Temperatures rise to near records late week into the weekend,
with Heat Index values in the 100 to 108 degree range

Today, Thursday:

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop across land
areas into the mid afternoon and through the evening from boundary
collisions across the interior. Much of this activity should remain
over land before it diminishes through late evening, but some storms
may be able to shift back toward the coast and offshore, especially
off of the Volusia/Brevard and Indian River coastline. Some strong
to isolated severe storms will be possible, producing wind gusts up
to 40-60 mph and small hail.

My main jaboticaba isn't quite dead yet, but I should give up on it. Rain starts to look decently probable (50%) on Monday. A Surfline check has nice 5-7' in northern Oregon. I should have stayed.

Edited: 06/07/2024 at 06:24 AM by ww

I only got a trace of rain last night (thursday). Looked like it was coming over from Orlando but just fizzled out by the time it got to my place. Maybe next week.

Yes, Jaboticaba do not tolerate drought. I've been eeking out mine out with the minimal about of rain we have gotten. I currently have about 4 jaboticaba holding fruit. They need rain though to plumpen up.

Weathermen promising rainy season starts this week! Bring It.